Tropics TranquilThe hurricane season continues until the end of the month, but it looks like the tropics will stay quiet, with Melissa likely the last storm of the season. Nothing is happening down there right now other than two swirls of clouds well east of the Lesser Antilles. 
This loop of visible satellite images show little activity over the Atlantic tropics. Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth These two features aren’t generating much thunderstorm activity, and what few thunderstorms do pop up are getting ripped to shreds by strong southwesterly to westerly winds aloft. The computer models show that these little swirlies will be torn apart before they reach the Caribbean Sea, the only area where they might have a chance to develop. This time of year, we also have to watch for storms to spin up along a stationary front over warm waters, as we now have stretching from the northwestern Caribbean to the Azores, but right now, no models show this to be a genuine concern. Sometimes non-tropical storms wander from the midlatitudes over warm waters and become tropical in nature this time of year, but there’s no sign of that happening either. While it may be months before we face another tropical threat, it’s important to remain prepared. If it’s not something coming out of the tropics, it can be tornadoes, winter storms, and even earthquakes. So, check out those SCEMD webpages to be well-informed about disaster preparedness. Warm And Dry For A WhileOur weather is looking monotonous for the next week or so. There is no sign of any more cold snaps like the one we had earlier this week for at least 10 days, and definitely no more snow for a while. An area of high pressure now centered right over us will remain in control through Saturday. As a result, we will remain mainly sunny through this afternoon. Some high cloudiness will drift overhead on Saturday, but our warming trend will continue. Highs this afternoon will be within shouting distance of 70, then we’ll see lower to middle 70s Saturday. A cold front will move in on Sunday, but it will lack moisture. We’ll see some patchy clouds as it moves through later in the day, but no rain. A surge of warmth ahead of the front will send our highs to the middle-to-upper 70s and the usual warm spots could touch 80°. Cooler air will filter in behind the front, but it only sends our temperatures to about 5° above normal instead of 10°. Monday’s highs will be in the upper 60s north and lower 70s south. Then we warm up again on Tuesday, with everyone in the 70s; upper 70s for much of the Midlands, the Central Savannah River Area, and the Lowcountry. Both days look mainly sunny. Another dry front will move in on Tuesday night and stall over us or nearby on Wednesday. Once again, we’ll see some clouds but no rain. Temperatures trend down a little again but remain above average for late November with highs of 65° north to 75° south. There is a chance the front stalls over our vinegar-loving neighbors to the north, and if so, we’ll be quite toasty with temperatures well into the 70s and maybe reaching 80° in the warmer spots. Thursday should be warm and dry again with early October warmth, then another cold front will move our way at the end of next week. Friday will probably be very warm and dry again, but with increasing humidity, then that front should get here Friday night or Saturday. It will likely tap moisture from the Gulf, so we should at least see some shower activity as the front moves through, and maybe some thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances would be better if the front moved through during daylight, when it’s warmer. We likely cool down to more typical late November temperatures (highs in the 60s) behind that front. Drought conditions continue across much of South Carolina, though the situation has changed little from last week. 
With rain likely absent for the next week, we’ll likely see the drought worsen, with more of the state affected. The following week doesn’t look great for the drought situation, either, as we’ll likely only see one good chance for rain. Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office | 
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