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Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA)
Key Factors
The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. The outlook is not a landfall forecast.
“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” added Graham.
A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Image credit: NOAA)
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins in June, bringing a historically low but serious early-season risk to mariners and Gulf Coast residents. While a named tropical cyclone only forms in June about once every 6 to 10 years, the highest risk area sits directly over the central Gulf of Mexico.
If a June storm does develop, historical patterns show the most likely track moves from the northwestern Caribbean northwest over the Gulf. This leaves a 50/50 chance for the system to curve north, then northeast toward Florida.
Click here for a look at the prospects for the upcoming 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
As a new boat dweller (Cruisers, we are called) I quickly became accustomed to surreal seasons of stunning, clear-water, creature-filled swims, new vistas, deserted islands, and a humbling, fortifying existence far different than I had ever known. It’s not a particularly straightforward life; constantly SPARRING WITH MOTHER NATURE takes wily stamina, but the highlights make it worthwhile. I’ve missed it.
After two years on this one solid piece of ground with many WTF-could-possibly-happen-next moments, the circle of friends here are my lifelines. A Marine Industry guru described me this way and shared my May 10th Publication:
Fortunate is the “amateur” (in the true and best sense of the word) boatbuilder who finds ways to live a parallel life concomitantly with a seemingly never-ending restoration project. For it is that boatbuilder who will find the fortitude and the balance not to be ground down by the project.
— Phil FriedmanFor Yacht Builders, Buyers and Owners
While carrying a tremendous amount of respect for Phil’s resume I’m not certain that fortunate is the word with which I would describe myself throughout the ‘seemingly never-ending restoration project’. Spending a fortune? Most certainly! Fortunate? Well, perhaps. Respected subscriber and frequent commenter Switter believes I am because of the acquired wisdom he eludes to, and the fortitude magnified.
SPARRING WITH MOTHER NATURE came to be when a LOOSE CANNON contacted me in the way-south out-islands of the Bahamas because World’s Worst Homing Pigeon landed (and decided to stay) on my classic wooden sailing yacht; that journalist encouraged me to start my own publication. Two years later I offer lessons, ironies and correlations that most hard-working, adventure-loving, nature-worshipping folks can relate to no matter their origins. Most importantly, it gives me a creative outlet and a way to connect with humanity in a time when it’s not all that easy.
Writing is simply what I am wired to do, a constant underlying wave of words and titles run through my brain, giving my life the balance that Phil aptly describes. People tell me they savor how I meld assorted elements together; many are distinctly surprised that even though they are NOT self-described “readers”, they look for my weekly commentary. I have never, could never, imagine a better compliment than that. You know who you are and my life would be less happy if you had not shared how you felt! Let’s all do that more often, eh? Give someone an easy compliment. Make them feel like what they do matters. It’s not hard.
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So, IF I MAY, here’s what I have for you. May, for a quarter-century or so, has weighed down this heart. I wanted to share because our Secret Sparring Society is a tight-knit group and growing in numbers. On May 1, I celebrated my mother’s birthday. She would have been eighty-seven, created five years after my floating home just miles apart on opposite shores of the western end of Long Island, New York. Born Martha Ann Graves she became Marti Graves Wheeler, Home Economics and Third Grade Teacher, a parent who nurtured my first life all over Upstate New York. The second life she visited, in the deserts of Arizona and Montana, the third and longest, Colorado, appealed in its stark differences to all she had ever known and beckoned. On a snowy Memorial Day weekend my brother moved her out to me, where she built a wonderful world of her own. Diagnosed that same summer, Marti was a five-year Breast Cancer survivor until a second primary, Peritoneal Cancer, took her in a span of three spinning, impossible weeks on an assortment of hospital floors; we never left her side. Wedding invitations to a smart, smitten man never got sent. We lost her twenty-four years ago today at only sixty-three. As I approach that age, I am more and more aware of how lives fly by and how much like her I have become. It’s hard to believe I’m the age I am.
Here, she is 53, I am 48 in my final year as a Colorado Chef & organic farmer.
My mom could not have even remotely imagined what my fourth reinvented life would bring, the one where I am a writer/liveaboard sailor/boat maintenance apprentice. She would be pleased beyond belief that I had finally given in to my desire to write (and write and write).
I believe, strongly, that she’s watching me, and I don’t say that lightly. I was embarrassed, sometimes, at her mom-in-the-bleachers cheering, rueful now because I thought her too enthusiastic, too devoted. Today I thoroughly understand there is no such thing as too devoted, I love that expressive passion. On a few things we were polar opposites but if she was disappointed, it showed only when I was grounded for the entire summer of my 16th year, or when, in her unflagging honesty, she divulged opinions I had no interested in hearing. Marti blessed me with a love of delicious food and beaches along with the ethic to stay in touch with friends no matter how one-sided that may be.
Myriads of characters and creatures, some remarkably memorable and others best forgotten, contributed to who I am but she was the most predominant for the thirty-two years I had her; my best friend, companion and confidant during her time out west. One of our loyal readers from Down Under penned a comment I’m sharing because I’d love to share it with her but you who surround me are an excellent substitute:
……What I think is most distinctive about *Sparring with Mother Nature* is that it doesn’t set out to be memoir, even though it draws from observation and memory. You curate and present inspirational impressions. That’s its own craft. When I first talked about your work with fellow writers (outside of Substack), I compared it to a Robert Pirsig *Chautauqua* or reflective educational narrative drawn from adventurous experience. Not everyone adventures; not everyone reflects. Not everyone can do what you do regularly and fluently. Ruv Draba
Thank you for staying aboard— there’s lots of space at the end to share whatever you want, too. Until next week, when we re-explore STEADFAST’s Bronze Age…
~J the accidental boatbuilder
I have long not believed in coincidence, so do with it what you will. This is the bottle of wine I popped open to accompany dinner as I finished this up. Cheers.
Whether you partake or not, sometimes these things are a kind of, well, weirdness that I rather believe in. Regardless, I would truly appreciate you ‘liking’ (that dang heart icon we’re so familiar with) & ‘restacking’ this work. The impersonal algorithms of Substack only pay attention to those, not the quality of the words nor the nature of the audience. So, it just takes a sec, affects you not at all and means that people who discover us may just help me make a living doing what I love. Wouldn’t that be grand?
When you comment, I always both appreciate and respond to those thoughts. So take another sip of that coffee and type away. Thank you.
OH WAIT!! THERE’S MORE! I just uploaded a YouTube video from last weekend’s BOOK DEBUT! Don’t resist this, it’s worth three minutes of your life, and then, buy the man’s memoir. Seriously.
Fred Pickhardt’s Substack is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Fred Pickhardt’s Substack that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments.
There is always plenty to do around Charlotte Harbor. While berthed at Fishermen’s Village Marina, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, you are certain to enjoy visiting Western Florida’s beautiful Charlotte Harbor/Peace River.
There is always plenty to do around Charlotte Harbor. While berthed at Fishermen’s Village Marina, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, you are certain to enjoy visiting Western Florida’s beautiful Charlotte Harbor/Peace River.
Fishermen’s Village JUNE Calendars of Entertainment/Events
When spending time with friends and family on your boat or yacht, everyone’s enjoyment and safety should be your top priorities. As the frequency of recreational marine fire-related accidents has increased, so have the injuries and deaths associated with them. To keep yourself, your family, and your friends safe while aboard your boat or yacht, it’s important to abide by safe boating practices, particularly fire safety, so you can enjoy your time on the water and make it back to the dock safely for your next adventure.
Below, we’ve outlined the three “P’s” of marine fire safety every boater should follow.
Prepare
Understand how to fuel up safely. Be sure the engine blower is operational and on before fueling and restarting the engine.
Develop a plan and practice what you’ll do if you need to extinguish a fire or abandon ship.
Make sure you know how to safely use a galley stove or barbeque grill on board.
Prevent
Install smoke and CO detectors in the cabin and other enclosed compartments.
Install automatic fire suppression system in the engine room. This might also save you money on your insurance premiums – contact your broker for details.
Inspect the wiring on battery terminals and breaker panels on high-amperage circuits. If necessary, obtain an electrical inspection or survey.
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