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What is the Risk for a Super El Nino? Fred Pickhardt
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Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for moreWhat is the Risk for a Super El Nino?
The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on May 14, 2026, indicates that ENSO is transitioning toward an El Niño event.
Current Status: El Niño Watch
While the system is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña), there are strong signals that this will change very soon.
Key Highlights:
- Emergence of El Niño: There is an 82% chance that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026.
- Long-term Outlook: The event is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, with a 96% probability during the December–February period.
- Oceanic Conditions: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central Pacific are currently near average, but subsurface temperatures have been rising for six consecutive months. This “warm pool” below the surface is a precursor to the development of El Niño at the surface.
- Atmospheric Coupling: Low-level westerly wind anomalies have been observed, which helps push warm water toward South America, further fueling the El Niño development.
Strength and Impact:
- Uncertainty in Intensity: While experts are confident El Niño will happen, its peak strength remains uncertain. This summer, a weak El Nino will likely become moderate during the late summer and early fall. Thereafter, there is significant uncertainty as the probability distribution is relatively evenly spread between moderate to very strong with no specific category having more than a 37% chance of occurring.
Risk Assessment
Based on the May 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the following table provides the percentage probability for each strength level of El Niño (and Neutral conditions) for the upcoming seasons.
The strength is determined by the Niño-3.4 Index (sea surface temperature departures in the east-central Pacific).
El Niño Strength Probabilities (%)
Analysis of the Data:
- Peak Intensity: The forecast suggests a steady intensification throughout the year. While the event starts as “Weak,” the probability of a “Very Strong” El Niño (≥ 2.0°C) increases significantly toward the end of the year, peaking at 37% during the November–January period.
- Winter Outlook: By the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF), there is a combined 60% chance of the event being either “Strong” or “Very Strong.”
As we move into early summer, the model uncertainties will diminish and we will be able to better predict the peak intensity.
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© 2026 Fred Pickhardt
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Venezuelan Coast Guard Recovers Sailboat Stolen from St. Vincent Anchorage – Loose Cannon
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Venezuelan Coast Guard Recovers Sailboat Stolen from St. Vincent Anchorage
Now, All Her Owner Has To Do Is Figure Out How To Get Her Home
Rudolpho Alexander of St. Vincent & the Grenadines was gratified to learn that his boat, stolen from the anchorage at Frigate Island on Saturday, has been recovered by authorities in Venezuela.
Alexander, owner of the Famous Liquor & Smoke Shop, said the Venezuela Coast Guard had notified their St. Vincent counterparts that they have possession of the CS 40 sloop named Great Habit. And that’s about all he knows, not even her precise location in that troubled South American nation.
Today he was wondering what kind of bureaucratic hurdles and expense will face trying to recover his boat from a place that has long been a no-go for foreign sailors. Alexander does not speak Spanish.
“Well, I’m just waiting for an update from the Coast Guard. I hope it’s not going to cost me too much now,” Alexander told Loose Cannon. “I may just have to leave it, or try to sell it or something.”
Alexander said he found Great Habit on a dock in Carriacou where she lay with hurricane damage in 2024. He bought her from a man at the boatyard who had acquired the boat either from the previous Canadian owners or their insurance company. He kept the Great Habit name.
Venezuela has several Coast Guard bases a one or two day reach from St. Vincent, including at La Iguana Island, Barcelona, La Guaira (near Caracas), Carúpano, and Margarita Island.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
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TowBoatUS and BoatUS Foundation Partner with Lynnhaven River NOW to Remove 10 Abandoned Boats from Virginia Waters
BoatUS is the leading advocate for boating safety in the US and A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR!
TowBoatUS and BoatUS Foundation Partner with Lynnhaven River NOW to Remove 10 Abandoned Boats from Virginia Waters
MEDIA CONTACT:Alisha ShethBoatUS Public Relations Manager.
TowBoatUS and BoatUS Foundation Partner with Lynnhaven River NOW to Remove 10 Abandoned Boats from Virginia Waters
Effort is part of larger initiative to remove up to 100 vessels and address growing abandoned and derelict vessel (ADV) issue
An image of an ADV removed from the Elizabeth River and crushed for disposal.
Photo Credit: BoatUS Foundation
SPRINGFIELD, Va, May 19, 2026 – The BoatUS Foundation, a national leader promoting safe, clean and responsible boating helped Lynnhaven River and TowBoatUS at ports Gwynns Island and Portsmouth,
remove 10 abandoned derelict vessels (ADVs) from waterways across Gloucester and Portsmouth, Virginia. This initiative is aimed at addressing navigational hazards and environmental impacts of ADVs on coastal Virginia waterways. The removals took place April 14–16 and are part of a broader effort to remove up to 100 ADVs in the area. Lynnhaven River NOW’s project brought together nonprofit, government and private partners to address the growing environmental and navigational risks posed by abandoned boats. This project is supported by a 2023 award from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Marine Debris Program.
“Abandoned boats don’t just disappear. They become a burden on communities, the environment and local economies,” said Alanna Keating, Director of Outreach at BoatUS Foundation. “By connecting trusted partners, we are addressing the issue of ADVs and making real progress toward cleaner, safer Virginia waterways.”
Removing abandoned vessels provides immediate benefits to local waterways and communities. Left unattended, these vessels can leak fuel, create navigation hazards, and harm marine ecosystems and shorelines. Their removal enhances boater safety, safeguards natural habitats, and helps prevent lasting environmental damage.
TowBoatUS operators Chris Parker of Gwynns Island and Donald Duck of Portsmouth were contracted to do the removals, volunteering significant time and resources while working through a wide range of vessel conditions.
“Every removal is different, and often more complex than people realize,” Parker said. “Some vessels can be refloated and towed, while others need to be taken apart piece by piece. It takes time and coordination, but the impact on the community and the bay is significant once removed.”
“These boats pose real risks to navigation and safety,” Duck said. “We see how they can break free, damage property, or require emergency response. Prevention through proper insurance and responsible disposal can make a big difference.”
BoatUS Foundation also has a broader ADV Program, which includes the Turning the Tide Summit and a national database to track abandoned vessels nationwide.
Local leaders in attendance during the local cleanups included Gloucester County Administrator Greg Gentry, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality Coastal Zone Manager Jeff Flood, and Portsmouth Mayor Shannon Glover.
Anyone who encounters an abandoned or derelict vessel on a waterway is encouraged to report it at https://boatus.org/adv-
database. ###
ABOUT THE BOATUS FOUNDATION:
BoatUS Foundation is supporting projects that were selected through their nationally competitive grant program for the removal of abandoned and derelict vessels throughout coastal and marine areas of the United States, including the Great Lakes, U.S. territories, and Freely Associated States. In an effort to help educate and prevent future ADVs, the Foundation created a national ADV database to track the scope of the challenge and measure success, document ADV prevention and removal activities to share with the public and support a national dialogue and education efforts on boating-related debris disposal. This project is supported by a 2023 award from the NOAA Marine Debris Program.
ABOUT TOWBOATUS:
TowBoatUS is the nation’s largest on-water towing and assistance service, with more than 300 locations across the United States. Captains are U.S. Coast Guard-licensed professionals who provide 24/7 on-water assistance including towing, soft ungroundings, battery jumps and fuel delivery. TowBoatUS also plays a critical role in supporting marine debris removal and response efforts in partnership with local and national organizations.
ABOUT LYNNHAVEN RIVER NOW:
Lynnhaven River works with residents, businesses, faith communities, schools, and community leaders to restore and protect Virginia Beach waterways and natural resources. LRNow believes that every community should have pure water, clean air, and access to open spaces for recreation. LRNow believes that every community should have pure water, clean air, and access to open spaces for recreation.
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LNM: OWW MM 94 Ortona Diving Operations May 20-21, Caloosahatchee River, FL
Notice to Navigation: 2026-008 – Diving Operations at Ortona Lock & Dam May 20-21, 2026
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS JACKSONVILLE DISTRICT
LOCAL NUMBER: 2026-008
WATERWAY: Caloosahatchee River – ORTONA LOCK & DAMEFFECTIVE: 20 May 2026
ATTN: CESAJ-OD-SN
PO Box 4970
JACKSONVILLE, FL 32232-0019POC: Kriss Zeller, Chief of Navigation (772) 380-6928
REFERENCE:
- 33 CFR Navigation and Navigable Waters
- Notice to Navigation
Attention all concerned boaters! There will be intermittent closures at the Ortona Lock & Dam on May 20 and 21, 2026 to conduct diving operations for maintenance on the manatee protection sensors and screens. Thank you in advance for your patience.
For the current Lake Okeechobee water levels, please see: https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/currentLL.shtml
- For up-to-date Lock information, contact the shift operator 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. at:
St Lucie Lock & Dam 772-287-2665 or 863-662-9148
Port Mayaca Lock & Dam 561-924-2858 or 863-662-9424
Julian Keen, Jr. Lock & Dam 863-946-0414 or 863-662-9533
Ortona Lock & Dam 863-675-0616 or 863- 662-9846
W.P. Franklin Lock & Dam 863-662-9908
Canaveral Lock 321-783-5421 or 863-662-0298 (6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.)
Thank you! Jeff
Jeffrey D Prater
Public Affairs Specialist
Corporate Communications Office
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District
South Florida Office
4400 PGA Blvd.
Suite 501
Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410
Cell: 561-801-5734
jeffrey.d.prater@usace.army.mil
Twitter @JaxStrong
Jacksonville District Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/JacksonvilleDistrictBe the first to comment!
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