Tropics Quiet For Now; A Long-Range ConcernAll is quiet on the Atlantic front today. We don’t have any named storms to track and only a few features of interest. That’s no surprise, as we are exiting the most active part of the hurricane season. 
This loop of visible satellite images shows clouds associated with the
features of interest across the Atlantic Basin today. Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth The view from space shows an intense non-tropical storm off the East Coast, a band of clouds over the northern Caribbean Sea and Central Atlantic, and two tropical waves to the east of the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tells us that there are two areas to watch for development over the next week. 
The storm off the East Coast has a slight chance to gain tropical characteristics over the weekend while it’s passing over the Gulf Stream. It’s a 10 percent chance of becoming a named storm, they say. For us, it doesn’t matter because it’s moving to the east and won’t impact us directly, whether it’s tropical or not. It’s a big storm that will churn up a lot of the Atlantic, potentially causing beach and boating impacts from the storm’s swells. However, the storm’s swells will primarily be directed toward the east and south, making them more of a problem for places like Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Atlantic-facing sides of the Greater Antilles than for the East Coast. Of greater concern is the area to watch in the deep tropics. We have a pair of tropical waves moving in tandem across the tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands today, and you can see a gentle turning motion with the trailing one along 43° west. That’s the one that NHC has highlighted for possible development once it reaches the Caribbean Sea. They’re giving it a 30 percent chance to develop over the next week. However, this feature will evolve slowly, and extending the window to 10 days would likely increase the development odds to even money or higher. Most computer models show a tropical cyclone prowling the central or western Caribbean Sea in a week or so. The Caribbean waters are very warm and contain a vast amount of heat energy to fuel a hurricane, so there would be a high ceiling on the potential intensity of a storm in this area. However, that’s about all the valuable information that I can give at this point. There are too many variables in the long range to predict where this feature might eventually go. Most models show it turning north, crossing one of the Greater Antilles, and then tracking far to our east. However, a few indicate an eventual track toward the U. S. and possibly even South Carolina. If so, it would be more than 10 days from now, so there’s a lot of time to watch it. The next name on this year’s list is Melissa, which is likely to be used for a storm in the Caribbean later next week or the following weekend. If the storm off the East Coast becomes tropical enough to earn a name, the next one on the list after Melissa is Nestor. So, the bottom line is that hurricane season isn’t over yet, and we must remain prepared for potential threats. We all hope that the potential Caribbean development remains a Somebody Else’s Problem, but that’s not assured. If you’re not ready and need help getting prepared, hurricane.sc is your go-to resource for prep advice. The Palmetto State remains in a stretch of tranquility that will continue through Saturday before a cold front moves in with a chance for rain on Sunday. Saturday looks lovely with a cool start followed by a warm afternoon; highs will mainly in the 75-80° range across the state. Then Sunday looks mainly cloudy, or with sun fading behind clouds along the Coastal Plain. The Upstate likely sees showers or steady rain starting before midday, while the rest of the state will likely have showers around during the afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but the severe storm risk is near zero. Most of the state sees 75-80° for highs again on Sunday, but the Upstate will be cooler due to the earlier arrival of rain. The Upstate could see a modest amount of rain on Sunday (a quarter to half-inch), but widespread rain is unlikely elsewhere in South Carolina. That will only put a small dent in the Upstate’s drought, and relief elsewhere will be minimal. 
This week’s U. S. Drought Monitor shows an end to the drought near the coast, but dry conditions continue elsewhere in South Carolina; about a fourth of the state is in drought. The big soaking we ended up getting from last weekend’s coastal storm obliterated the drought across most of the Coastal Plain, but the rest of the state remains dry, and we can use whatever rain Sunday’s cold front brings. Dry weather returns for Monday, and it looks like we’ll see another long dry spell get underway. Monday will be cooler with highs mainly in the lower 70s across the state. Tuesday looks warmer as southerly winds ahead of another cold front pull in warmer air. However, this next front will likely be moisture-starved and generate no rain here. Wednesday through Friday all look like pleasant and dry days with highs in the 70s. Early indications are that the dry spell will continue through next weekend and maybe the first part of the following week. Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office | 
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