Weather Alert  –  October 9, 2025

Coastal Storm Update

The forecast has changed little from Wednesday, so I’ll keep this brief. A coastal storm, not tropical in nature but behaving in some ways like a tropical storm, will impact South Carolina’s Coastal Plain Friday into Saturday. The storm will bring a wind-driven rain to this area, especially along the immediate coast. However, damaging winds are unlikely, and rainfall will mostly be beneficial due to our lack of rainfall in recent weeks. Coastal flooding due to high astronomical tides and onshore winds will be the primary concern.

This loop of maps from the Weather Prediction Center shows the progression of our coastal storm up the East Coast Friday through Monday.

It’s already breezy today, but winds increase further later tonight along the Coastal Plain with the strongest winds right at the coast. It will remain rather windy through Saturday morning, then winds will gradually lessen. Peak gusts along our coast will be 35-40 mph; inland areas will see occasional 30-35 mph gusts. That might take down a few smaller limbs, but significant damage is unlikely.

Rainfall will be 1-2 inches near the coast, with amounts trailing off as you go further inland. However, heavier rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible over much of the Pee Dee region and especially the Grand Strand. Isolated flash flooding can occur where the heavier rain falls. Little or no rain will occur along and north of I-20, except in the Pee Dee.

Coastal flooding will be significant with the storm pushing water ashore during high astronomical tides (the full moon was just back on Tuesday night). Friday’s midday high tide will bring us the highest water, with major coastal flooding over much of the Lowcountry coast. Areas that only flood on the highest king tides will flood in this situation. So, expect to see some roads closed due to flooding. Also, especially in Charleston, if heavy rain occurs around high tide, it will make the flooding worse.

The National Weather Service forecast for water levels in Charleston Harbor includes a peak of 8.5 feet at 11:00 a.m. Friday, about 0.6 feet higher than today’s high tide.

Fortunately, we’re only getting brushed this time, and we can be thankful. Our neighbors at North Carolina’s Outer Banks have not been so fortunate; this will be the fourth time they’ve been pounded by a storm, named or not, through the hurricane season. It’s also looking ugly further north along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from Sunday through Monday, and in some areas, Tuesday. If you have a trip planned that way in the coming days, check ahead before you go.

We continue to track Tropical Storm Jerry, which will sideswipe the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday. The National Hurricane Center calls for it to become a hurricane Friday night as it turns north and remain a hurricane as it passes east of Bermuda early next week. Their forecast calls for it only to reach Category 1 intensity, and if correct, we’ll only see limited impact from the storm’s swells on our coast next week.

Stay prepared! Visit hurricane.sc for prep advice. See y’all again Friday.

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office