Weather Alert  –  March 13, 2026

Monday Severe Storm Threat,
A Late Freeze To Follow

Well, Thursday morning was scary in parts of South Carolina with severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings flying left and right. So far, storm surveys by the National Weather Service have confirmed one tornado in Irmo and a waterspout on Lake Murray near the dam. They are studying damage around Bamberg to determine whether a tornado caused it.

‘Tis the season for such things, and it looks like we’ll have another threat on Monday. Chilly air moved in behind the front that caused the storms Thursday morning, but warm and humid air will return over the weekend (Nice Saturday, then warm and more humid on Sunday with spotty afternoon and evening showers and perhaps thunderstorms). The next cold front will move in on Monday.

The setup for Monday looks even more robust than what we had on Thursday. Warmth and moisture will continue to surge northward ahead of a cold front moving in, and the front will be even sharper, with strong upper-level support.

So, the ingredients are likely to come together for a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak on Monday. We’re likely to see supercell thunderstorms producing damaging winds and hail, along with a tornado threat along and ahead of the cold front. The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Monday has most of the state in their 30% risk area. Days 4 to 8 outlooks are less detailed, depicting 15% and 30% chance for severe within 25 miles of a point; that 30% area is a ‘we mean business’ signal from them. They use the 30% area to highlight places where they think severe storms may cause more widespread damage.

Timing looks to be the morning and midday hours across the Upstate, then afternoon and evening for the rest of the state, though there is some uncertainty. The greatest risk will be where thunderstorms have the warmth of the afternoon to provide the best fuel. That is most likely to be along and east of a line from Aiken to Rock Hill. The threat will then wind down during the evening as the front pushes through and moves offshore.

Now’s the time to review severe storm and tornado safety information and make sure you have an action plan in place to protect yourself, your family, and your property as best you can. You have the whole weekend to prepare, so be ready on Monday.

You’ll find severe storm safety tips on the National Weather Service’s website. Go check that out and make sure you have a plan in place to deal with the severe storm and tornado risk ahead of Monday’s potential outbreak.

The severe storm risk isn’t our only potential hazard over the next week. Unseasonably cold air will move in behind Monday’s front and hang on through midweek. The forecast includes a freeze for at least part of South Carolina on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with Wednesday morning likely the coldest.

The National Weather Service’s forecast lows across South Carolina on Wednesday morning indicate a freeze over most of the stat and middle to upper 20s over the
Upstate, Catawba Region and upper Pee Dee.

Image Source: WeatherBELL

Temperatures in the 20s will damage or kill any tender plants you might have out. Peach growers in the Upstate will need to keep an eye on the forecast because lows in the mid-20s are forecast northwest of I-85 on Wednesday morning.

Look for an update Sunday night or early Monday.

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office