What is the Risk for a Super El Nino?

The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on May 14, 2026, indicates that ENSO is transitioning toward an El Niño event.

Fred Pickhardt May 15

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Current Status: El Niño Watch

While the system is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña), there are strong signals that this will change very soon.

Key Highlights:

• Emergence of El Niño: There is an 82% chance that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026.
• Long-term Outlook: The event is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, with a 96% probability during the December–February period.
• Oceanic Conditions: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central Pacific are currently near average, but subsurface temperatures have been rising for six consecutive months. This “warm pool” below the surface is a precursor to the development of El Niño at the surface.
• Atmospheric Coupling: Low-level westerly wind anomalies have been observed, which helps push warm water toward South America, further fueling the El Niño development.

Strength and Impact:

• Uncertainty in Intensity: While experts are confident El Niño will happen, its peak strength remains uncertain. This summer, a weak El Nino will likely become moderate during the late summer and early fall. Thereafter, there is significant uncertainty as the probability distribution is relatively evenly spread between moderate to very strong with no specific category having more than a 37% chance of occurring.

Risk Assessment

Based on the May 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the following table provides the percentage probability for each strength level of El Niño (and Neutral conditions) for the upcoming seasons.

The strength is determined by the Niño-3.4 Index (sea surface temperature departures in the east-central Pacific).

El Niño Strength Probabilities (%)

Analysis of the Data:

• Peak Intensity: The forecast suggests a steady intensification throughout the year. While the event starts as “Weak,” the probability of a “Very Strong” El Niño (≥ 2.0°C) increases significantly toward the end of the year, peaking at 37% during the November–January period.
• Winter Outlook: By the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF), there is a combined 60% chance of the event being either “Strong” or “Very Strong.”

As we move into early summer, the model uncertainties will diminish and we will be able to better predict the peak intensity.

Ocean Weather Services

Forensic Marine Weather Expert

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Discussion

© 2026 Fred Pickhardt
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104