Get Ready for a Rougher Ride in the Bahamas This Winter

El Niño Diminishes Hurricane Risk But Promotes ‘Northers’

Crown Weather Services Jun 14   ∙   Guest post

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Rob Lightbown founded Crown Weather Services in 1994 to provide personalized weather forecasting and has tracked tropical storms and hurricanes for customers ever since. On Thursday, NOAA announced that the El Niño weather phenomenon had formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

A very strong El Niño is going to disrupt the atmosphere for the next several months. This weather phenomenon will shape winter conditions across the Bahamas, likely making cruising there a somewhat more stressful undertaking. Foreign sailors may find themselves more likely to have to alter plans because of severe weather than during previous visits.

Yes, El Niño winters can be particularly harsh across the Bahamas. This is due to the development of a particularly strong sub-tropical jet stream that often leads to a very active storm track that moves near or just north of the Northern Bahamas.

This active storm track during winter months leads to frequent bouts of significant severe weather, heavy rain and frequent squalls across the Central and Northern Bahamas. El Niño winters are wet, cool and very stormy across the central and northern Bahamas. For the Southern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos, bouts of gusty winds with swells will occur during the winter as strong fronts pass by just to the north.

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All of this will lead to frequent unfavorable conditions for cruising across much of the Bahamas due to frequent frontal passages and an overall stormy winter. Cruisers may be need to find protective shelter from the weather for longer than usual—sometimes for several days at a time. Competition among cruisers will likely be strong for those spots with all-around protection from clocking winds.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a global phenomenon that’s centered in the central and eastern Pacific when the ocean water temperatures become much warmer than average. This phenomenon oftentimes leads to a large disruption to the weather patterns across the globe.

The El Niño that we are currently moving in is expected to be one of, if not the strongest on record. El Niño conditions usually peak in the late fall and winter months. I want to point out that the previous strongest El Niños on record were in 1997 and 1982, and I do think that we will surpass both of those in terms of the amount of heat that’ll be present in the eastern and central Pacific.

What About the 2026 Hurricane Season?

The rapid transition into El Niño conditions is likely to lead to much lower-than-average activity in the Atlantic Basin this hurricane season. The abnormally warm waters in the tropical eastern Pacific during a strong El Niño will increase the amount of wind shear over the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. High degrees of windshear can lead to tropical systems that are unable to organize and develop into tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic.

Back in late March, I issued our annual hurricane season forecast, in which I forecasted 11 named storms, five of those storms becoming hurricanes and two of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes due to the expectation of strong El Niño conditions. I still think that this forecast is still valid due to the expectation of the strong El Niño conditions.

While it is expected to be “quiet” in terms of the number of storms, it does not mean that there won’t be a impactful tropical storm or hurricane this season. In fact, a number of the past strong El Niño years did bear a impactful tropical storm or hurricane. They include 1957’s Hurricane Audrey, 1965’s Hurricane Betsy, 1997’s Hurricane Danny and 2015’s Hurricane Joaquin.

There are a few areas of concern this hurricane season that we should be aware of.

While the strong El Niño conditions will probably shut down hurricanes in the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, it can lead to lower than average wind shear conditions north of 20 North Latitude. Because of this, it’s possible that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamaa, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda.

Another area that I have some concerns with in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the U.S. Gulf Coast and especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason why I think this is that I can foresee a scenario in which any westward traveling tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean wait to develop until they reach the Southern and Central Gulf.

Across the rest of the U.S. South—as in the Bahamas—El Nino winters are very often stormy. We can expect a pattern in which winter weather extends quite far into the the south, including heavy rain and frequent squalls. Ice and snowy conditions could happen as far south as the Gulf coast.