Tropical Depression 2 Monday Update – Fred Pickhardt
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TD2 at 5pm EDT, was centered near 28.7N 85.8W with max winds of 30 KT with a minimum pressure of 1005 mb. The strongest winds are currently south and east of the center. The low-level center is drifting northwest at only 3 knots and is forecast to move slowly northwestward to west-northwestward for 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west.
The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions should continue for another 18-24 hours, after which, the northeasterly shear should increase, and cause the system to weaken. The peak intensity forecast is 45 knots in 36 hours, however, wind shear could keep that somewhat lower.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday. A storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts.
Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along portions of the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north of Fort Myers to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Latest NHC advisories: NOAA NHC You’re currently a free subscriber to Fred Pickhardt’s Substack. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |
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