We’re in what’s usually the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the tropical Atlantic is a ghost town right now.
The above loop of visible satellite imagery above shows several features of interest across the North Atlantic and eastern U. S.:
Tandem tropical waves along 82° west and 77° west in the western Caribbean and one more wave over the tropical Atlantic along 38° west.
A band of clouds associated with a front stretching from Arkansas and Missouri to the Delmarva Peninsula and over the western Atlantic.
A blob of clouds over South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle associated with an upper-level disturbance.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Today, we move into record territory for lack of hurricanes. Since 1960, when weather satellites became available, the latest hurricane development came on September 11, a record held by Gustav of 2002 and Humberto of 2013, with an honorable mention for Diana in the leap year of 1984; Diana’s formation on September 10 was on the 254th day of the year, the same as Gustav and Humberto. The last time we went this deep into the season with no hurricanes was in 1941. Two years, 1907 and 1914, had no known hurricanes, and 1914 had only one known tropical storm.
A few tropical waves are crossing the deep tropics, but none show significant thunderstorm activity.
The Atlantic is likely to remain calm for another week or so. In fact, the deep tropics could remain calm much longer because the El Niño-driven vertical wind shear in the region is unlikely to subside. We’re also likely to see a continuing feed of dry air from Africa; blame El Niño for that, too.
However, the subtropical Atlantic (the area between the Tropic of Cancer and 35° north) could turn active as we approach the end of the month. As we head into late September and October, we start to see cold fronts edge further south again, and they usually turn stationary over the Gulf and subtropical Atlantic. Stationary fronts over warm waters can become a breeding ground for tropical cyclones. Our computer models are picking up the risk, with some showing development in 10-14 days, but they disagree on exactly where and when. There’s no strong signal for any area to be on high alert, just an indication that vigilance is necessary.
Quiet times continue in the Atlantic, but there’s still a lot of hurricane season left (yesterday was halftime), so stay prepped. If you need prep advice, hit up hurricane.sc.
SC Weather Highlights For the Next Week:
We’ll be turning unsettled this weekend as an upper-level trough moves in and a cold front to our north sags southward. This afternoon will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the northern half of the state. Stronger storms can cause locally damaging winds, and isolated flash flooding is also a concern. Most of the state will reach the 90s.
Saturday should be our most active day, as a disturbance now along the Gulf Coast tracks through ahead of the approaching front. This moisture-laden disturbance will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms, and isolated damaging winds and isolated flash flooding remain a risk. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the 80s in the Upstate with low 90s elsewhere.
Sunday looks less active, with afternoon thunderstorms more focused along the Coastal Plain. Most of the state will reach the low 90s.
Monday looks hotter as a second front approaches. This will be one of those ‘backdoor fronts’, moving in from the northeast. The front won’t produce many afternoon and evening storms. Highs will be in the low to mid-90s; hotter spots could get to the upper 90s.
A cooler, drier air mass will move in behind the front. A little cooler, lower humidity will be the real relief. Tuesday could bring a shower or thunderstorm to the Lowcountry before the front pushes south, but otherwise, Tuesday through Friday all look rain-free. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, then mainly low 90s later in the week. We’ll have to wait until the week after next for any real taste of fall.
Frank Strait Severe Weather Liaison S.C. State Climate Office
Be the first to comment!