Hurricane Isaias Threatens Northern Gulf Coast

1400 EDT Update

Fred Pickhardt Oct 8

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Hurricane Isaias is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and posing a severe threat to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast with a likely landfall late Friday or early Saturday.

Current Storm Status

• Position: Latitude 24.0°N, Longitude 89.8°W
• Maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (approx. 85 mph)
• Maximum Significant Wave Heights: 7-8 meters (23-26 feet)
• Location Relative to Land:
  About 185 miles (approx. 161 nm) north of Progreso, Mexico
  About 355 miles (approx. 308 nm) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River
• Movement: East-northeast (60 degrees) at 9 knots (10 mph).
• Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb (28.80 inches).
• Hurricane-Force Winds (≥64 knots): Extend outward 10-15 nm.
• 50 Knot Winds: Extend outward 20-30 nm.
• Tropical-Storm-Force Winds: Extend outward 30-60 nm..

Outlook

During the next 24 hours, Hurricane Isaias will peak near 95 knot max winds with significant waveheights building to 10 meters (about 33 feet). As the center approaches the Gulf Coast, increasing wind shear could weaken the max winds, however, the extent of weakening is uncertain.

Flooding

Onshore winds will drive destructive waves and catastrophic coastal flooding. If the peak surge coincides with high tide, expect water heights to reach:

• 5 to 7 feet: Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL (including Mobile Bay)
• 4 to 6 feet: Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL
• 3 to 5 feet: Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS, and Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River, FL

Rainfall

Heavy rain will dump 3 to 7 inches across the central U.S. Gulf Coast, with localized totals up to 15 inches across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. This will trigger significant river, flash, and urban flooding.

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