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    • ‘People flying off the boat.’ Blast hurts 11 people at Haulover Sandbar: witness Miami Herald


      Be careful out there and follow all safety precautions  …

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    • 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: A Potential Break? – Fred Pickhardt


      Fred Pickhardt’s Substack is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Fred Pickhardt’s Substack that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments.

         
       
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      The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may offer something we haven’t seen in a while — a bit of a break.

      While the official outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) isn’t due until later this May, early indicators suggest that overall activity could trend near to slightly below historical averages.

         

      The Big Driver: El Niño

      The dominant factor shaping this season is the expected development of a moderate to potentially strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

      Why does that matter?
      • El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds over the Atlantic
      • This creates strong vertical wind shear
      • Wind shear disrupts developing storms, making it harder for hurricanes to form and intensify
      Historical data backs this up. During strong El Niño years:
      • Hurricanes decrease by roughly 30–40%
      • Major hurricanes are often cut nearly in half

      Tampa’s WFLA Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli recently highlighted this relationship, noting a significant drop in storm activity during past strong El Niño seasons.

         

      Sea Surface Temperatures: A Mixed Signal

      Ocean temperatures are another key ingredient this season:

      Cooler-than-average waters have developed across the eastern and central Atlantic’s Main Development Region (MDR)

      • This typically suppresses storm formation

      However, warmer-than-normal waters persist in:

      • The subtropical North Atlantic
      • The Gulf of Mexico
      • The western Caribbean
         

      Bottom line: There’s a tug-of-war between atmospheric suppression (El Niño) and localized ocean warmth.


      What the Forecasts Say

      Several leading forecast groups have released early outlooks. When averaged together, they point to a slightly below-normal season:

      • Named Storms: ~13.6 (historical average: 14)
      • Hurricanes: ~6.1 (historical average: 7)
      • Major Hurricanes: ~2.3 (historical average: 3)

      Most forecasts cluster around this range, though one outlier (University of Arizona) suggests a more active season due to expected warmer than normal ocean temperatures.

         

      Note: If El Niño strengthens further, these numbers could trend even lower.

      Landfall Risk: Lower, But Not Zero

      Even in quieter seasons, it only takes one storm to make it dangerous.

      According to Colorado State University projections:

      • 32% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline
        (vs. 43% historical average)
      • 15% chance for the U.S. East Coast (including Florida)
      • 20% chance for the Gulf Coast
      • 35% chance for the Caribbean

      Some forecasts, including AccuWeather, highlight the northern Gulf Coast and Carolinas as areas of elevated risk this year.

      What the Pattern Suggests

      Seasonal models based on sea surface temperatures indicate:

      • Below-normal activity in the Gulf and Caribbean
      • Near or slightly above-normal activity along the U.S. East Coast

      This aligns with the current pattern of warmer subtropical Atlantic waters, which can sometimes shift storm tracks north and east.

         

      Final Takeaway

      A quieter season doesn’t mean a safe season.

      Even during El Niño years, impactful hurricanes can and do occur. It only takes one landfalling storm to make a season memorable — especially for coastal communities.

      Fred Pickhardt, Meteorologist

      Ocean Weather Services

      Forensic Marine Weather Expert

       

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      © 2026 Fred Pickhardt
      548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104
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    • Happy Mother’s Day from Key Lime Sailing Club and Cottages – Key Lime Sailing Club


      Key Lime Sailing Club in Key Largo, 305-451-3438, www.keylimesailingclub.com

      Key Lime Sailing Club, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, always has very special offers for their visitors! Key Lime Sailing Club is a unique slice of KEYS ENJOYMENT…give it a try and let us hear about your experience.

       
       
       

       

       
       

      Celebrating Every Mom This Mother’s Day

      Happy Mother’s Day to all the incredible moms out there! Words truly cannot express how grateful we are for everything you do, the sacrifices you make, the love you give, and the strength you show each and every day.

      You deserve to be celebrated not just today, but always, and we hope this special day brings you as much joy and warmth as you bring to everyone around you.

      From our little corner of paradise here in the Florida Keys, the entire Key Lime Sailing Club family wants you to know how much you are appreciated.

      Whether you are on the water or at home, we hope today is filled with sunshine, laughter, and beautiful moments made just for you.

      Happy Mother’s Day, with all our love from your Key Lime Sailing Club and Cottages Family.

       
       
      Key Lime Sailing Club and Cottages | 305-451-3438 | 99306 Overseas Highway, Key Largo Florida | www.keylimesailingclub.com
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    • Border Patrol Boat Runs Down, Kills Man in a Dinghy – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.

       

       

       
         
       
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      Border Patrol Boat Runs Down, Kills Man in a Dinghy

      USVI Authorities Refuse To Say ‘Rocker Shawn’s’ Name. Fan Tributes Pour Out Instead

       
       
       
       
       

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      Agencies gather in the afterman of the Saturday evening accident. (St. Thomas Rescue photo)

      Shawn Leass was run down and killed by a Customs & Border Patrol boat in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the only reason we know the victim’s name is because of tributes to him on Facebook and at local pubs where he performed Rock & Roll favorites.

      According to the St. Thomas Source news outlet, Leass had come to the USVI about 25 years ago, initially living aboard his Erickson 36 Freya. He was killed while piloting his dinghy after having left St. Thomas Carnival on its last night. The accident happened at 7:45 p.m. on Saturday.

      Share

      CBP’s Office of Professional Responsibility, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the National Transportation Safety Board are investigating, according to CBP spokesman Jeffrey H. Quinones. This was the official statement:

      A U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Coastal Interceptor Vessel was involved in an accident with a small dinghy near Hulover Cut, St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, during a border security patrol. The sole occupant of the dinghy was transported to a hospital but passed away.

      Quinones would not go beyond that when asked about several witness reports that the 41-foot patrol boat was traveling at a high rate of speed and without lights. And why not at least announce the name of the man whose life was lost?

      “That is a matter under the responsibility of the local police,” Quinones said. According to The Source, local police have notified Leass’s sister in Ohio, but have not yet publicly identified Leass as the victim, let alone say anything about the man he was.

         
      This is a sistership to the CBP vessel that hit Leass’s dinghy: A 41-foot Coastal Interceptor Vessel.

      Leass, as it happens, was well liked in the USVI cruising community and by those who enjoyed his performances at local music venues.

      “Shawn was an experienced dinghy captain. Also, he was good about having lights on his dinghy. He also didn’t drink alcohol. I lost a good friend and neighbor for many years. I hope there’s a full investigation,” Jeff Birchenough wrote on Facebook.

      Shannon Sharpe was another person who posted a tribute to Leass:

      There are some people that you meet in life’s journey that kinda shines a light on ya. To me, Shawn was one of those guys. He was always so happy to see me. Smiles and hugs. And he would always ask me.. “Will you play with me tonight?” There was no way on earth I would ever tell him no.

      For those of us that knew him, we should ALWAYS remember is dedication and passion for his music that he played. I enjoyed playing with him because of this…. When Shawn would get up on the stage, he would go to a different place. He played with a passion that we should all strive to have. Whether there was one person in front of him or many more, he always played like he was playing in front of 30,000 people. Nothing else in the world mattered.

         
      Leass was known for his passionate covers from bands such as Led Zepelin and Steppenwolfe.

      There was also anger at what some saw as an abuse of authority. As Erin Taylor wrote:

      This is heartbreaking. These patrol boats need to SLOW down! This is where we live. We use Gregerie channel to get to and from our homes! They are not in pursuit of anyone. They have no business driving this fast in our local waters. It is reckless and irresponsible, especially of people wearing a badge that we should be able to trust and feel safe around. I witness them going past my house all the time, 60-70 mph for no reason at all. This life did not need to be lost. He was a sweet man that bothered nobody. I’m heartbroken and appalled at this news.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

       

       

       

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    • Here’s what the upcoming rainy season looks like for South Florida – SunSentinel


      https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/05/07/heres-what-the-upcoming-rainy-season-looks-like-for-south-florida/

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    • BOLO: The Owners of This Boat May Have Info on Missing Wife – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.

       
       
         
       
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      BOLO: The Owners of This Boat May Have Info on Missing Wife

      Coast Guard Investigators Seek Help To Find Witnesses in Bahamas Case

       
       
       
       
       

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      This boat may have been anchored at Aunt Pat’s Bay within sight of the Hooker vessel on the day Lynette went missing. This photo was first published by CBS News yesterday.

      Coast Guard investigators assisting Bahamian police in the case of a missing sailor’s wife want to question the owners of the boat pictured above. The sloop in question may have been anchored next to Soulmate, belonging to Brian and Lynette Hooker, on the night she went missing.

      According to her husband, the 55-year-old Michigan woman disappeared during an evening dinghy ride in the Abacos. Somehow, she took the shutoff fob with her, causing the electric outboard to stop, Brian Hooker told authorities.

      Do You Have Info?

         
      CGIS TIP LINEhttps://www.p3tips.com/878

      The dinghy took almost nine hours to drift four miles from the vicinity of Elbow Cay to Marsh Harbor despite blustery winds pushing it in that direction—a timeline that investigators may have found troubling. Agents of the Coast Guard Investigative Service, CGIS for short, are on the case under a broad mandate to investigate crimes that “happen on, over or under a navigable waterway.”

      Share

      The sailing vessel they are looking for, also shown below, appears to be under 40 feet LOA, with double roller furling headsails, a flat sheer line, an arch on the stern and a sugar scoop transom. She is shown with an inflatable dinghy.

         

      The incident happened on the night of April 4, 2026. Brian Hooker was taken into custody for questioning and later released. He has denied any wrongdoing.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

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    • 2026 Air Dot Show Fort Lauderdale: TODAY AND TOMORROW – SunSentinel


       
       

       

       

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    • Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Association May Newsletter

      Cruisers Net is proud to be a member of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Association whose lobbying work is crucial to keeping the Waterway navigable. Your membership dollars directly support their vital work. Please join and encourage your boating neighbors to do likewise, regardless of their homeport.

       

       

       

      ‘On the Road’ with the AIWA
      This spring, we have been on the road working to represent the AIWA in discussions related to maintenance dredging and operations needs with local, state and national organizations. In four trips over the past four weeks, Executive Director Brad Pickel has met with federal, state and local officials in Washington, D.C., Florida and North Carolina. These meetings were in addition to the Board of Directors Advocacy Trip to Washington, D.C. in early March where we met with 12 Congressional offices.
       
      Highlights of these outreach efforts include:

      Our next in-person meeting to advocate for the waterway is June’s National Dredging Meeting and the opportunity to connect with our USACE partners from the District, Division and Headquarters levels.

      Looking ahead

      With the busy spring conference season behind us, our focus is on advocating for the AIWW in the federal appropriations process for FY27 (current appropriations amounts in the table below), ensuring that funds that have been provided in previous fiscal years are being used to dredge and maintain the waterway, and continuing outreach to grow our membership. 

      If you know of a company, local government, association, or individual who works on the waterway, please contact brad.pickel@atlanticintracoastal.net or visit https://atlanticintracoastal.org/join-aiwa.
       

       
      We held our first Commercial Operator and Corporate Member Stakeholder Group meeting in April with 23 participants, representing 18 entities.

      The group’s focus is to assist the organization in identifying shoaling areas, bridge maintenance projects and other issues impacting use of the waterway, and help prioritize the areas that need to be addressed. With over 1,100 miles of the AIWW, limited funding for waterway dredging and maintenance, we will utilize resources created by this group to further refine our educational and advocacy efforts with the Administration and Congress.

      Since our first meeting, the group has identified over 50 shoaling areas to be ranked in order of impact to commercial operations. We are also collecting information on bridges that are impacting current movement on the waterway. Collectively, this group is refining areas of the waterway that continually cause the most impact to navigation.

      The next quarterly meeting is July 8th at 10 am eastern. To become a member of this group and further assist us in developing resources to aid in our education and advocacy efforts, we invite you to join our corporate membership

       

      Highlighting Waterway Hotspots along the 2026 Spring Migration

      One of our favorite articles of the year for recreational boaters was recently published by our friends at the Waterway Guide

      Long-time waterway expert, Bob Sherer (also known as Bob423), identifies several key areas dredged since last fall, and a few shoaling spots requiring caution.

      Read the article and download the Bob423 tracks to help you stay on the safest route. 

       
                           Help Shape the Future of the Vessel Speed Rule
      For our members who are interested in the Vessel Speed Rule highlighted last year, we share below the recent Call to Action from our partners at Boating United.

      In 2022, NOAA proposed a sweeping expansion of the North Atlantic Right Whale Vessel Speed Rule that would have forced many small recreational boats along the East Coast to travel at just 10 knots for up to seven months out of the year. The proposal failed to distinguish between large commercial ships and smaller recreational boats, ignored marine technologies, and would have created serious consequences for manufacturers, marinas, charter operators, anglers, and coastal communities. Now, NOAA needs to hear directly from YOU about why a modern, technology-driven approach is the best path forward. Please take a moment today to submit a comment before the public comment period closes on June 2. 

      Learn more and participate in the process by clicking here. 

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      Copyright © 2026. Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Association. All rights reserved.

      The AIWA is a national non-profit organization with the mission of securing funding and support for the maintenance of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway. We are the only organization dedicated to ensuring the future of the AIWW and proudly represent all stakeholders of the waterway. 

      Contact:
      Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Association
      5a Market |  Beaufort, SC 29906
      (843) 379-1151 |  atlanticintracoastal.org

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    • Cruisers’ Net Weekly Newsletter – May 8, 2026

      Cruisers’ Net Newsletter for this week has just been emailed via Constant Contact.
       
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      To automatically receive our emailed Fri Weekly Newsletter and Wed Fuel Report, click:

       


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    • Mr. Bad Example Wants To Be a Captain – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.

       
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      Mr. Bad Example Wants To Be a Captain

      Dude Stinks at Evaluating Risk. This Story Exists Because of That

       
       
       
       
       

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      Evidence photo shows the four queen conch he “harvested” illegally.

      Nope. Not going to use the guy’s name, even though I could. Every crappy detail in this story comes from one court document or another. His sad existence only caught my attention after a Loose Cannon story about ham actor Sylvester Stallone’s battle against boaters.

      Something about that story, which wasn’t even written by me, triggered the dude into making a comment on Facebook:

         

      My first thought was that I must have dumped some dung on his head in a prior write-up, but that search came up negative. So, I had a go with my best friend Google and, as the French are constantly saying, voilà.

      And, as Massachusetts people would say when confronting a similar fact-set: What a wicked stupid bahstid! I made the rare decision to omit his name because it was too much like punching down.

      Let’s just call him Mr. Bad Example.

      (In case you think this is just Loose Cannon being peeved at being told to eff off—no great novelty—rest assured there are a couple of boating lessons to be drawn from this story. At the risk of being too click-baity, I am going to throw these in at the end.)

      Mr. Bad Example began earning the name on September 19, 1994, when he was just 20. Police in North Carolina caught him “willfully and feloniously” in possession of a 1991 Chevy S-10 pickup truck, which, even his lawyers admitted, he knew to have been stolen. A judge sentenced him to time served, 84 days in jail.

      Share

      Fast forward 30 years and Mr. Bad Example and wife have prospered sufficently to spend $84,000 on an old Grand Banks trawler, which was underway on Lake Champlain on June 9, 2024 when the U.S. Coast Guard came a’callin’ for a random safety inspection. Quoting a federal court document:

      The Coast Guard agents asked (Mr. Bad Example) for the vessel’s navigation handbook. (Mr. Bad Example) informed the agents that the handbook was in a cabinet next to the helm but that he could not retrieve the book because he believed there might be a firearm in the cabinet. The agents went to search for the handbook; they found the pistol and spare ammunition magazine but did not find the vessel’s navigation handbook.

      The Coast Guard crew issued him a citation and went away. Back at base, however, they learned that Mr. Bad Example had a felony conviction from North Carolina and possibly a second felony. They hunted that Grand Banks down, and took Mr. Bad Example away in handcuffs.

      Mr. Bad Example’s protestation that the two handguns and a rifle seized by the Coast Guard in fact belonged to his wife, held no sway, and he was indicted by a Vermont grand jury. Under federal law, a felon in possession of a firearm can be sentenced up to 10 years in prison and fined up to $250,000.

      His lawyers have mounted a constitutional defense, arguing that the Second Amendment should protect Mr. Bad Example’s right to carry guns because his prior offense was non-violent, involved no related charges and happened three decades ago.

      It should be noted at this point that Mr. Bad Example is a Texan, which may have shaped his relationship with both guns and the Constitution, but he should have realized he was not in Texas anymore (though, truth be told, Vermont is one of the most gun friendly states in the Northeast).

      A smart fella would have based his decision to carry on a standard risk assessment. What are the chances of an otherwise law abiding person being caught illegally possessing guns on his boat? Chances are slim. But if one does get caught, what are potential consequences? The consequences are potentially dire—up to 10 years in federal prison.

      Then, what are the risks of NOT carrying firearms? On Lake Champlain, nestled between rural New York and rural Vermont, the likelihood that firearms would be needed for self defense on the water is somewhere between slim and non-existent.

      But here we are: The case is still active in U.S. District Court, Burlington.

      Meanwhile, court documents reveal that Mr. Bad Example wants to become Captain Bad Example, though he is prevented from getting his U.S. ticket by the pending criminal case. Ahh but he has a work-around. Apparently, the British licensing system is not as squeamish as ours. Applying for leave to visit the Bahamas, his lawyers wrote:

      For that reason, he is seeking to travel and captain charter boats in international waters where the pending indictment does not present such an obstacle. The proposed trip serves two purposes. First, (Mr. Bad Example) will be able to complete most of his RYA certification for captaining charter boats in international waters.

      Second, and perhaps more importantly, the trip will serve as an important bellwether to show that (Mr. Bad Example) can and will adhere to any restrictions that the U.S. Probation Office places on him during his international travel. It is undersigned counsel’s hope that (Mr. Bad Example’s) continued compliance with U.S. Probation’s orders will eventually lead to a standing order from this Court allowing him to travel internationally for work with U.S. Probation’s prior approval.

      Here it should be noted that Mr. Bad Example and his wife have cruised down to Florida during the criminal case. They spent time in the Keys, where Mr. Bad Example made headlines again. Quoth the Monroe County Sheriff’s Office:

      Middle Keys Sgt. Matthew O’Neill and Deputy Martin Corona-Rivera were on patrol at Sombrero Beach at approximately 5:37 p.m. on March 22, 2026, when they were informed a male on the beach was harvesting queen conch. (Mr. Bad Example), 52, of Willis, Texas, possessed four conch. Each conch was returned to the water alive. (Mr. Bad Example) was given a mandatory notice to appear in court.

      Florida banned harvesting queen conch in the 1970s. The penalty for possession doesn’t rise to Chevy S-10 levels but 60 days in jail is not trivial either. Denied indigent status, Mr. Bad Example is acting as his own lawyer down here.

      Naturally, the prosecutors up in Vermont caught wind of this most recent bad behavior. In September, a federal judge had agreed to put the case on hold for a year—“a diversionary period” for Mr. Bad Example to demonstrate his essential goodness—after which there would probably be a merciful outcome to his case.

      Last month, Mr. Bad Example asked the court to shorten the diversionary period so the case against him could end, and he could find a much needed job. Prosecutors wrote a scathing objection:

      Although the defendant successfully completed a trip to the Bahamas in October 2025, the defendant stands accused of violating a regulation that should have been especially pertinent for an aspiring charter boat captain. (That the queen conch has been designated a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act heightens this concern; the defendant was close to committing a federal offense as well as a state law violation.) One would assume that an individual who wishes to captain chartered pleasure vessels would know what he is allowed to take out of the sea.

      According to police reports, the defendant admitted his conduct and claimed ignorance of the prohibition on harvesting queen conch, suggesting that he could not be bothered to learn what the law required. He should take the small step of addressing that situation before asking for an additional privilege.

      Nor should the Court be persuaded by the defendant’s claims of financial hardship. The defendant still has his boat and was recently in the Florida Keys. He offered no reason why he cannot take some other maritime employment, be that as a dockhand, first mate, boatyard manager, or some other position that would provide him with meaningful experience for when he completes his pretrial diversion and later earns a captain’s license.

      The defendant’s claim about his inability to land a job in the technology sector is another red herring. This one is also a distraction from the other paths to employment that the defendant apparently refuses to consider.

      Two Takeaways

      Whatever our position on the contentious issue of guns aboard, we have to recognize that their presence can complicate matters and often do.

      Over the past two decades Loose Cannon has covered three criminal cases (today’s is the third) that began with the Coast Guard asking to see ship’s papers and finding “illegal” firearms because they were being kept in the same place.

      The first two cases happened because owners had taken their boats into jurisdictions which have tough gun laws, New York City and Massachusetts. These owners had no idea that they were breaking any laws. (In one case, the owner’s administrative assistant had forgotten to update paperwork in his home state.)

      Advice: Store official papers and guns separately. I have been boarded a half dozen times, and no Coastie has ever asked whether we had guns aboard. And I have a policy, which applies to my crew as well, of communicating truthfully and succinctly. That is, be polite but do not answer questions that have not been asked.

      Now about those conch: That should have been an easy one. No one can take queen conch in Florida—ever. That’s one of the easiest fisheries regs we have down here. Otherwise, Florida fishing regulations are almost as complex as the tax code.

      The regs are complex because of varying rules based on species, location, federal or state jurisdiction, licensing, continuously updated seasons, bait restrictions and bag limits. There is even a fishing rules app that consults your GPS location to determine what is mandatory or prohibited at that specific place and time.

      In other words, you ought to check daily for the equivalent of a planetary alignment before you try catching anything.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

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