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For the first time in over 30 years, we are seeing evidence that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) might be heading into its negative (cool) phase. If this shift is real, it could fundamentally change our weather patterns for the next two decades. The “Horseshoe” EmergesThe hallmark of a negative AMO is a distinct “C-shaped” or horseshoe pattern of cool water stretching across the North Atlantic. Looking at current sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we are seeing exactly that: a crescent of cooler water running from the UK down to the Canary Islands, paired with a persistent cold pool south of Greenland. The cold “blob” south of Greenland is particularly telling. It’s often noted as a byproduct of a slowing AMOC (the ocean’s “conveyor belt”) and is also closely linked to a negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). North Atlantic SST Anomaly (topicaltidbits.com) A Cooling Tropical AtlanticThe biggest hurdle for a negative AMO phase recently has been the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). In recent years, the tropics have remained stubbornly warm. However, as of March 2026, we are seeing widespread neutral to cool anomalies in the MDR. This makes the case for a phase shift significantly stronger than it was just twelve months ago. Atlantic MDR SST Anomaly (Tropicaltidbits.com) Real Shift or False Start?The AMO is a marathon, not a sprint. History is full of “false starts” where the ocean cools for a year or two before the warm cycle resumes. Current cooling in the eastern Atlantic could simply be a temporary reaction to atmospheric triggers, like a strong Positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. To confirm a true regime shift, these cool anomalies need to persist and expand for several consecutive years. We aren’t ready to declare the “Warm Era” over just yet, but the needle is moving. What This Means for the FutureIf this pattern holds through the 2026 hurricane season and into 2027, the implications are significant. A sustained negative AMO phase typically brings:
We are watching the Atlantic closely. If the 1995–2025 warm cycle is indeed ending, the next 20 years of weather will look different from the last. You’re currently a free subscriber to Fred Pickhardt’s Substack. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. © 2026 Fred Pickhardt |
Harbour Town Yacht Basin, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, is ready for your reservation with newly renovated docks, upgraded electrical service and onSpot WiFi, also a CRUISERS NET SPONSOR. And, as always, numerous activities at the Sea Pines Resort are offered for your enjoyment, as you will see in the Event Schedule below. Hilton Head Island is absolutely marvelous any time of year.
Kerry Maveus
kmaveus@hunter-pr.com | www.hunter-pr.com
mobile: 831-917-2878
P.O. Box 1049 | Pebble Beach, CA | 93953
There is always plenty to do around Charlotte Harbor. While berthed at Fishermen’s Village Marina, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, you are certain to enjoy visiting Western Florida’s beautiful Charlotte Harbor/Peace River.
Special Events & Community Relations
941.639.8721
Click Here To View the Western Florida Cruisers Net Marina Directory Listing For Fishermen’s Village
Click Here To Open A Chart View Window Zoomed To the Location of Fishermen’s Village
There is always plenty to do around Charlotte Harbor. While berthed at Fishermen’s Village Marina, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, you are certain to enjoy visiting Western Florida’s beautiful Charlotte Harbor/Peace River. Please consider visiting Fishermen’s Village first annual “Earth Day at the Village” event, scheduled for Wednesday, April 22nd, 2026, 10am-4 pm.
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Special Events & Community Relations
941.639.8721
Click Here To View the Western Florida Cruisers Net Marina Directory Listing For Fishermen’s Village
Click Here To Open A Chart View Window Zoomed To the Location of Fishermen’s Village
Scheduled closure of the South Mills Lock for electrical repairs on April 20-22, 2026. Our thanks to Sarah Hill of the Dismal Swamp Welcome Center for this information.
Please see the USACE Norfolk District’s Notice to Navigation regarding the scheduled closure of the South Mills Lock on the Dismal Swamp Canal, April 20-22, 2026. This temporary closure is for electrical repairs to be made. The lock will reopen on April 23, 2026.
Attaching image from this week at the dock. Boaters are beginning to trickle through during this early springtime period.
Looking forward to many more in this season!
Thanks,
Sarah
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| Sarah Hill, TMP Director, Dismal Swamp Canal Welcome Center Chairperson, Camden County Tourism Development Authority 2356 US Hwy 17 North, South Mills, NC 27976
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Click Here To Open A Chart View Window Zoomed To the Location of South Mills Lock
Click Here To View the North Carolina Cruisers’ Net Bridge Directory Listing For South Mills Lock
Anchors. We’re talking anchors!
This week flew by with final edits, acoustic guitars, sketches of anchor systems and calls to Port Townsend Foundry in Washington State, one of the only remaining forges in the US. They create stunning, creative, powerful bronze vessel hardware, you can view their work here. We haven’t come to a consensus yet, but are confidant that owner Pete Langley has the talent and skill that we need to build the new, larger, system that we require. Their reputation is impeccable and the reason we chose to go to this level of quality and expenditure is because, as mentioned last week, it is very important to stay where you want to be on a vessel, especially if it is anywhere near land, shallow water or other obstacles, often other boats. The mariner’s term for this essential holding equipment is ground tackle.

Since I received more than a few comments on this topic, I decided to link a story, originally entitled DRAGGING (modified to Eclipse Interrupted by the Editor), published in SAIL magazine, 2024. Since these sort of events seem to always happen at night, this truly depicts the heart-pounding terror that grips a sailor and crew when an anchor is no longer doing what it should. You feel like your hair is on fire. All hell has broken loose along with your ground tackle. Looking back and reliving the moment, I hope it conjures a dose of adrenaline and a dose of our reality; dragging an anchor really is bolt-upright-in-bed scary stuff with the potential for both danger and destruction. It’s the reason STEADFAST is upgrading the size of the anchor as well as its deployment and retrieval system.
Between what can happen when we’re on the water and what we have had to do to get back in the water, it’s no wonder friends far and wide are convinced we’re batshit crazy. I know that description still stands, and is probably as accurate as it could be.
We are engineering, thinking, consulting, sanding, priming, painting and preparing for this crucial install. Here are our workspaces:



Right now SPARRING WITH MOTHER NATURE is mainly the weather—from 74 to 24(F) with an occasional downpour and north winds that chill to the bone…no complaints because some of this nation has had it much worse and our hearts are with them.
As always, thanks for being aboard. There’s nothing quite like STEADFAST, and nothing quite as dedicated as you, if you’ve gotten this far. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate it—-makes the whole project so much better when I can share it with the world. Wooden boats may or may not have been a topic that you would have chosen, so just remember, this mountain and desert dweller never imagined herself here, hauling anchors and meeting the eyes of dolphins. LIfe is good, if unpredictable.
All the best to you and what you are passionate about, whether it makes sense to everyone else or not! See you here next week. ~J

Thanks to SAIL magazine, I appreciated their publishing my work, here is the link:
https://sailmagazine.com/cruising/cruising-eclipse-interrupted/
Serious cruiser use anchor alarms for a reason! Sailing Vessel Roam’s Substack is interesting in regard to utilizing three alarms set simultaneously. They are currently on the other side of the planet; if you’re interested take a look, Jim is quite an informative writer!
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.![]()
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When all else fails, try journalism. Back in the Fight, Houthis Use Simrad Boat Radars To Hit ShipsHow Halo24 Became a Tool for Disruption of Global Commerce
The Iranian-backed Houthis of Yemen yesterday opened a new front in the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran. This Arab tribe gave the American military a preview of how 21st century assymetrical combat works when it launched attacks against the U.S. Navy in the Red Sea a few years ago. This story was originally published on January 28, 2024. The story seems topical today. Celebrity endorsements are key to selling consumer products, but what if the celebrities themselves aren’t all that likeable? Ask Simrad, which manufactures a marine radar system that just enjoyed a big shout-out, thanks to our villains du jour, the Houthi rebels. The Houthis are an Arab tribe that is fighting for control of Yemen, a strategic hunk of territory that dominates the Red Sea route to the Suez Canal. Like the Ukranian military, the Houthis are a disciplined, nimble and resourceful force, fighting the Yemeni government and the U.S. equipped and trained forces of Saudi Arabia. Now, urged on by their sugardaddy Iran, the Houthis are disrupting world shipping traffic through the Red Sea as a way of pressuring the Israelis to back down over Gaza. What has that got to do with Simrad? Last week the New York Times published a story about Houthi resilience in the face of U.S. air strikes. The reporters gave a shout-out to a particular piece of gear that is helping to bedevil America and her allies—the Simrad Halo24 dome radar. The Houthis began buying Halo24s as they brawled with Saudi Arabia through the later half of the last decade. As it has done during the Ukraine war, the U.S. military kept a close watch to learn how Houthis were able to keep the better equipped Saudi forces at bay for half a decade. That’s how the Halo24 came up on the Pentagon’s radar, figuratively speaking Shoot and ScootAs Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt wrote in their Jan. 24 story in the Times:
While U.S. air forces are superbly capable of neutralizing super-expensive military-grade targeting stations, they are proving less effective at hitting cheap ($3,099 at West Marine) Halo24-based systems moved around in the beds of pick-up trucks. Apparently, a Houthi fire team will raise a Halo24 dome on a pole temporarily while they fire a drone or missile and guide it toward a ship. Whether missile or drone, once it hits, misses or gets shot down, the tower is quickly lowered, disasembled and stowed, and the truck makes a getaway—shoot and scoot. Like the civil war in Yemen, the Simrad Halo24 came into being around 2015, an improvement on the so-called Broadband Radar introduced a few years earlier by Simrad’s then-parent company Navico. Traditional radar uses something called a magnetron to produce repeated bursts or pulses of radio waves. Halo and earlier Broadband radars emit variable frequencies instead of single bursts. The Corps RecalibratesMeanwhile, the Marine Corps has been reinventing itself as a force that could engage China asymetrically in a future conflict, using smaller Marine units to “fix” Chinese formations long enough for the U.S. and allies to concentrate forces and join in the fight. Yep, the Marines adopted both Houthi insurgency tactics and the Halo24, a radar intended for the recreational marine market, most definitely not intended for military use, according to Don Korte, the Simrad product manager in charge of the Halo project. Korte said the radars were designed to work with Simrad’s proprietary multi-function displays, but the Marines have gone another route. One image released by the Marines shows a marine training with the Halo24 using a Dell laptop computer as the interface. The laptop is in SPx server mode, software developed by the British company Cambridge Pixel, a supplier of radar display, tracking and recording sub-systems. Here’s what the company said in 2017 about its system capabilities as applied to an autonomous surface vehicle or ASV. That is, a seagoing drone
If you understand any of that, you can probably begin to see how a Halo24 with SPx or a similar software could guide an airborne suicide drone from a Yemeni beach to a passing container ship. Halo24 has a theoretical max range of 48 miles; actual range depends on both the height of the dome above sea level and the height of the target. According to Korte, instead of the four- and six-kilowatt magnetrons of traditional pulse radar, Halo uses up to 25 watts of power and a “spread-spectrum X-band transmitter” to send out a signal using what’s called “pulse compression.” The signal burst is comprised of up to six different pulse lengths consisting of a range of frequencies, rather than just one, that upon echo return provide large amounts of data about the distance and direction of targets. Ben Ellison, founder of Panbo, a website devoted to marine electronics, wrote about Halo’s benefits when Simrad brought the technology to market about eight years ago:
Korte said the Halo radars were also an improvement over the previous Broadband 4G models because their higher power allowed better MARPA tracking of targets. MARPA stands for Mini-Automatic Radar Plotting Aid, and we civilians use it for collision avoidance. But you can see how it might also assist in vectoring a moving aerial or surface vehicle to its collision with a moving target such as a ship. Halo can track 10 MARPA targets simultaneously, 20 in dual-screen mode, Korte said. For us, one of the cool functions is the Halo24’s ability to operate displaying dual radar ranges overlaid on dual charts. “You can do chart-chart with radar on dual range and when you change chart scale, the radar will automatically follow the chart range,” Korte said. “I worked very hard to make that work good.” Masters of Their Own DomainFor the Marines, the name of the game is “maritime domain awareness,” a key mission under Force Design 2030. The Corps’ blueprint for future war-fighting includes a new “Littoral Regiment” that will “help the fleet and joint force win the reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance battle within a contested area at the leading edge of a maritime defense.” Capt. Larry Boyd, a Marine officer involved in a joint exercise with Philipines forces in November 2023, highlighted the use of off-the-shelf sensors such as Simrad Halo24s, which he said allow “for a more seamless interoperability in building the maritime-domain-awareness picture.” What he said. The Houthis are not the first bad guys to burnish the good name of a product by purchasing them in mass. The Taliban’s choice of Toyota pick-up trucks—referred to as “technicals”—as a platform for their machine guns and missile launchers is another. And the idea can be applied not just to products but services. In the war movie Full Metal Jacket the drill sergeant hilariously cites the Texas tower gunman (who killed 12 people) and Lee Harvey Oswald, both Marine veterans, as testament to the quality of the Corps’ marksmanship training. Like the Houthis, their achievements/crimes constituted an endorsement. At this point, some readers may be thinking, so what? The Houthis are shooting at ships, but they haven’t sunk anything. The allied Navies are blasting Houthi ordinance out of the sky, and the one or two hits or ships haven’t caused much damage. Alas, that argument is true, but it’s irrelevant truth. The fact that the threat exists at all has caused wholesale re-routing of world shipping. That creates delays and higher costs. Shippers’ insurance goes way up. It has been the cause of one of those supply-chain disruptions that everyone prattles on about. Brunswick ConnectionSimrad is now owned by Brunswick Corp., a $6,62 billion Fortune 500 company that absolutely dominates the market for boats, marine propulsion and boating accessories. Brunswick routinely reports to its stockholders about the potential for “acts of terrorism or civil unrest” to disrupt distribution channels or its supply chain. Brunswick has six facilities in Europe, a continent that benefits mightily from movement of goods through the Suez. European car factories have actually had to shut down for lack of components coming from the Far East. The irony is that while Brunswick is profiting from the military application of one of its recreational products, it too may be feeling a bit incovenienced by events in the Red Sea. Further deterioration might find Brunswick in the unique position of being hoist by their own petard, after first having profited from the sale of said petard.¹ Yeah, unlikely. I know. LOOSE CANNON was miscast as a boating magazine electronics editor in a previously life. Marine electronics have become boring nowadays, but every once in a while… 1 Wikipedia: Hoist by his own petard is a phrase from a speech in William Shakespeare’s play Hamlet that has become proverbial. The phrase’s meaning is that a bomb-maker is blown (“hoist”) off the ground by his own bomb (“petard”), and indicates an ironic reversal or poetic justice.
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