Weather Alert – Watching the Gulf, More Severe Thunderstorms Possible, SCDNR
| Watching the Gulf, More Severe Thunderstorms Possible |
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| Watching the Gulf, More Severe Thunderstorms Possible |
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When all else fails, try journalism. She May Have Already Been Sinking Before Anyone NoticedMarine Trader 50 Could Easily Handle 20 People. A Burst Hose, Not So MuchNo, the Marine Trader that sank off Alcatraz was not overloaded with people. According to our go-to-expert on marine disasters, the 50-footer had almost surely been sinking long before anyone noticed. Then, at the critical point, she went under too quickly for anyone to make a Mayday call. Of 20 on board, three people were lost in Tuesday’s sinking, plus a dog. Volare had been on a mission to scatter the ashes of a friend—a quick out-to-sea and back. This type of trawler yacht may not have been an ocean-crosser, but she was designed to easily handle normal sea conditions in San Francisco Bay, reported as four- to five-foot seas and Force 4-5 winds that day. Roger Long is a retired naval architect who specialized in designing research vessels and sailing ships. He has testified in official proceedings about vessel stability in connection with disasters at sea. He helped Loose Cannon readers understand the sinkings of Bayesian and Pride of Baltimore.
Moreover, Long cruises the East Coast in a Gulfstar 43, a trawler of similar vintage and design as Volare. Regular news accounts are rarely very helpful when the marine community is trying to figure out why a perfectly good boat decided to capsize or sink. Getting “slammed” by a five-foot wave, as the San Francisco Examiner reported, would not have been enough. John Arndt framed the real question, writing in the July 15 Latitude 38 online marine news outlet:
Long is fairly certain the explanation is “undetected engine room flooding.” The Coast Guard reported that the boat was hit by a wave, causing it to suddenly capsize and throw people into the bay. Yet the images of the Bimini top just peeking over the water show Volare awash but upright. Then she sank. According to Long, who has done the math, no matter how people on board were distributed during the reported sea conditions, their weight would not topple Volare onto her side, let alone sufficiently to submerge the boat’s engine intake vents. Long said similar designs are licensed by the Coast Guard to carry up to 49 passengers. An unusual design feature of the Marine Trader 50 is that each of her twin engines has its own stand-up engine compartment, separated by a corridor that leads from the main accommodations area to an aft cabin. Long noted that a diesel engine will continue to run until water rises high enough to flood its air intake. In other words, a lot of water can come in before a stalled engine makes the problem apparent. According to Long, a possible culprit in the flooding was a burst raw-water cooling hose. If the doors to the engine compartments were all closed, water coming into one side might create an asymmetrical flooding scenario, at least initially (and depending on how well the doors were sealed). Retired Coast Guard Lt. Commander John Mixon, speaking to NBC News, speculated that the seeming rapidity of Volare’s sinking may have been due to “water intrusion in the lower levels of the boat.” The vessel was barely two miles from getting back to her embarkation point at San Francisco when the accident happened, and the number of people and the social nature of the outing may have masked the fact that the boat was beginning to handle poorly, Long said. A broker who once helped sell Volare was very familiar with her. After the disaster, he spoke to a witness. “I believe it was a mechanical failure in the port engine room, which was sealed. But the facts will come out,” Mike Garner said in a Facebook comment. “I say that because one of my close friends, who is a captain, was there and witnessed this tragic incident from the beginning to the end. What he described to me made sense.” According to news accounts, the Coast Guard will investigate the feasibility of recovering Volare, which now sits on the bottom 128 feet down. Some number of the missing three bodies may be inside her. LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues, and nautical history. Every so often, he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid. |
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When all else fails, try journalism. Back When Dumping a Little Petroleum Was a Righteous Small-Craft Storm Tactic‘Storm Oil’ Isn’t a Thing Anymore, And Not Just Because It’s Illegal
This story first appeared on July 26, 2023. While writing a story recently about a harbor plagued by petroleum spills, I was reminded of being a kid and reading about mariners using oil to help survive offshore storms. It was the 1960s, so the magazine might have been in Yachting before it transmogrified into the sop to millionaires it is today. “Storm oil,” they called it, and it could be deployed upwind in a container attached, for example, to a sea anchor, where it slowly released its contents. Like nutmeg on butternut squash, storm oil was effective even when applied in tiny amounts. And, as the photo above was meant to suggest, the technique has been used since biblical times. As recreational boating was trending upward in the last century, boating magazines were launched to serve the new market, and one service to readers was to pass along wisdom of professional mariners. One early magazine account of storm oil appeared in this issue of Motor Boating, known for it’s stunning cover art: This “heavy weather edition” of the June 1912 magazine credited the Phonecians with first use of storm oil: Sailors from the ancient Middle Eastern nation had observed “that after passing through the wake of whales, oil exuding from their bodies left a perfectly calm spot” (presumably referring to the bodies of the whales, not the sailors). The following bits of wisdom were contributed to Motor Boating by E.A. Crawford of Newark, N.J.:
Cone Can in a Sea AnchorAttached to a KelletStorm Oil Bags
The middle one, from an online market site, was labeled “no longer available.” The other two are in museums. (Click on an image to enlarge it.) The final reference to storm oil that I could find in MotorBoating (the name had become one word) was a 1978 story about a 70-foot sailing vessel lying ahull. She was apparently surfing down massive waves and outrunning the slick until her crew began towing warps to slow the boat down enough to enjoy the effects of the oil. Benjamin FranklinThere he goes again. Research a topic long enough, and sooner or later Benjamin Franklin is going to pop up. It wasn’t enough that he invented lightning rods, swim fins and bifocals, that he was first to chart the Gulf Stream, but it was Franklin that first confirmed scientifically the efficacy of storm oil. LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid. Sailing to England in the 1860s, Franklin observed that the greasy galley discharge from a nearby ship smoothed its wake. After arriving he conducted experiments at a British lake, which he summarized in a report on “Stilling the waves,” writing:
This YouTube guy replicated Franklin’s approach and gives a pretty good explanation of the science involved. He even used olive oil, as likely had the early Phonecian practicioners.
The Federal Water Pollution Control Act was enacted in 1948, but rewritten in 1972 and amended twice since. For boaters, one result was the placard below, which we are all required to display on vessels 26 feet and over with an enclosed engine compartment. But what if a vessel is outside U.S. waters entirely? Todd Lochner, an admiralty lawyer in Annapolis, was asked whether restrictions on releasing oil follow us onto international waters, which is where we are most likely to have to ride out a storm.
As late as 1991, “Chapman Piloting & Seamanship & Small Boat Handling” was still informing readers of the benefits of oil in the storm but with a disclaimer about it’s dubious legality. In 1999, the first edition of “Surviving the Storm: Coastal & Offshore Tactics” by Steve and Linda Dashew only mentions storm oil a few times in passing. No matter, I think. If given a choice between adding a couple quarts of Rotella T to the Atlantic and death by drowning, most of us would probably choose the former. The law and politically correctness may be why none of our written authorities are touting oil as a solution nowadays, but the real reason for its disuse is this: We now have tools to avoid being caught in storms, which did not exist before the 1990s, let alone 1912. Better ForecastsOcean-crossers like the Dashews are a rare breed. Many of us haven’t done anything riskier than an overnighter. Most offshore passages are limited in duration to four, maybe five or six days. Think “I-65,” the route from New England to the Caribbean via Bermuda. Weather forecasting for a four-day window is actually pretty damn accurate nowdays, and, since the new Millenium, the electronic means for receiving such forecasts have proliferated, the latest and greatest being Starlink. We’re not getting surprised like we used to. Think of this way: The conditions for using storm oil and a sea anchor are pretty much the same, as suggested by one of the illustrations above. Yet the sea anchor has become like a vestigial tail. Many of us still carry one, but most of us who do, have never used it. If you’ve deployed a sea anchor in actual storm conditions, please share the story with us below. Do you think oil would have helped? LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Both the US CFSv2 and the ECMWF ENSO models agree that this El Niño is strengthening rapidly and will likely be a strong-to-very-strong event peaking in fall/winter 2026. The ECMWF is forecasting a peak relative Niño 3.4 anomaly of roughly 3.0–3.7°C, while CFSv2 peaks around 2.0–2.2°C. That’s nearly a full degree difference at the high end, with both models using the same relative index framework. The CFSv2 projection shows signs of a waning El Niño by early 2027, while ECMWF holds near peak conditions. If we average the two models you get a peak of about 2.7 C which would be a very strong El Nino indeed.
Putting this in historical context using RONI:Since February 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has used the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) as its official ENSO metric, replacing the traditional ONI. RONI subtracts the tropical-mean SST anomaly from the Niño 3.4 value and applies a scaling factor, stripping out background warming to isolate true El Niño intensity. The three strongest events in the instrumental record (1950–present): No event in the historical record has exceeded 2.5°C RONI. ECMWF’s plume implies a serious chance of shattering that ceiling by 0.5–1.2°C, which would be genuinely unprecedented. Even CFSv2’s more conservative projection would place this event among the top three on record, approaching the 1982-83 peak. The 2015-16 event for comparison:The 2015-16 El Niño crossed 1.0°C RONI in June 2015 and accelerated through fall: JAS 1.6 → ASO 1.9 → SON 2.2 → OND 2.3 → NDJ 2.4 (peak). Decay was swift, dropping below zero by May 2016 and plunging into strong La Niña (−1.1°C) by fall. The 1982-83 event followed a nearly identical trajectory, peaking at 2.5°C in NDJ–DJF before collapsing into La Niña by late 1983. Notably, the traditional ONI ranking of these events is different: 2015-16 led at 2.6°C, followed by 1997-98 at 2.3°C, and 1982-83 at 2.2°C. RONI reverses that order, revealing that much of 2015-16’s apparent record strength was inflated by background tropical warming rather than El Niño dynamics alone. What to watch:As we move into late summer, the rate of intensification will tell us which model is closer to reality. If we’re tracking toward ECMWF’s upper range, this will be an event unlike anything in the modern record. If CFSv2 is right, it’s still a major El Niño with significant global weather impacts, but not the record-breaker ECMWF suggests. Forensic Marine Weather Expert
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When all else fails, try journalism. American Tug Buyers Go to Police with Fraud Claims after Kadey-Krogen BankruptcyEx-Detective and Wife Seek Halt to Liquidation ProceedingsAccording to the American Tug bankrupcy petition, four vessels are in various stages of completion at the La Conner, Washington factory. The buyers of one of those boats last week filed a criminal complaint alleging the company CEO had defrauded them in the run-up to insolvency. Joe and Tana Ganete of Gig Harbor, Washington, went to the Sagit County Sheriff’s Department with a timeline and a list of allegations and supporting documents. They say the department has opened a case file (No. 26-07957) and assigned an investigator to look into it. Joe Ganete, who was a detective for 18 years before founding a company that provides services to law enforcement, said the charges might include theft by deception, exploitation of elders and financial crimes across state lines. Ganete named Kadey-Krogen and American Tug CEO Tucker West as the person most culpable. Ganete said an investigation might well show that funds from American Tug were diverted to prop up Kadey-Krogen as its revenues declined, though it is not clear whether that, by itself, would be illegal. Krogen acquired American Tug in May 2023. West filed Chapter 7 bankrupcy petitions for both companies last Monday. Unlike Chapter 11, which allows a company to reorganize and stay in business, Chapter 7 takes it directly to liquidation. That is, all assets are sold with proceeds going to creditors. Attempts via text and email were made yesterday to reach Tucker West for his side of the story. There was no response, but if West eventually does reply, Loose Cannon will include his comments as a follow-up story.
According to the bankruptcy documents, the Ganete’s American Tug 365 is 85 percent complete and 85 percent paid for. Other buyers with unfinished boats at the factory are: Keith Asplundh of Palm Beach, 70 percent complete and paid for; Jeff and Susan Parker of Harrison, Tennessee, 35 percent complete and paid for, and Benjamin and Christine Saitz of Seattle, 25 percent complete and paid for. Ganete said the bankruptcy court will treat the buyers as “unsecured creditors.” He said the other buyers have expressed interest in contributing to any criminal case as supporting witnesses. Ganete hopes the criminal investigation will prompt the bankruptcy judge to pause any liquidation of American Tug assets. Ganete said different buyers had different contracts with American Tug, some of which presumably included regular payments at various construction milestones. Ganete’s was different: He and his wife paid 90 percent down—$700,000—with the remainder due at delivery. In exchange, Ganete said, American Tug discounted the price by several tens of thousands of dollars. The Ganete’s contract also stipulated that the boat had to be delivered by a specific date or the $700,000 would be refunded to them. There were unexplained delays during construction, and American Tug failed to meet the deadline, Ganete said. He said that when he raised the issue of a refund with West, he was told there was no money available for that purpose. “He defaulted on the contract at that point already,” Ganete said. “He’s already telling me he’s defaulting, and he can’t fulfill the contract.” According to Ganete, West suggested they meet at the factory, so they agreed to get together on July 9. The petitions for liquidation were filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware on July 6. Ganete said he was never notified that their meeting was off. “This is devastating. People had hopes and aspirations and plans, and, you know, no matter what walk of life you come from, whether you’re rich or poor, it hurts when you lose that much money,” he said. LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
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When all else fails, try journalism.
The author is director of Historic Preservation and Community Planning Program at the College of Charleston. This story first appeared in The Conversation on July 1, 2026 and is reprinted here with permission. By R. GRANT GILMORE IIIThe American Revolution is often told as a heroic story of 13 colonies rising up against a mighty empire and, with some help from France, winning their independence. But the real story is more complicated. As the United States approaches the 250th anniversary of its independence, it is worth remembering that success on the battlefield depended not only on courage and ideals, but also on trade, credit, shipping and access to military supplies. The center of that trade was not the 13 Colonies – but south of Loyalist Florida, in the greater Caribbean. Here developed the center of the Atlantic economy due to the insatiable appetite for sugar that had grown across Europe by the late 1700s. The economic output of just Jamaica was the same as the entire 13 Colonies. The Caribbean economies depended on slave labor, trade and supplies from around the world to make sure the sugar flowed freely and tax revenues to European colonial powers were maximized. Much of that support flowed through a small Dutch island in the eastern Caribbean that few Americans know today: St. Eustatius. Small but MightyI’m a historical archaeologist, and for eight years earlier in my career, I lived on St. Eustatius and served as island archaeologist and founding director of the St. Eustatius Center for Archaeological Research. Barely 8 square miles (about 21 square kilometers) in size, St. Eustatius – or as residents call it, Statia – sits to the northwest of St. Kitts and Nevis. Without this tiny island, the Continental Army might have found itself without the arms, gunpowder and the supplies it needed to survive. Statia Facts for Sailors from NoonsiteStatia’s importance began with geography. The island rises steeply from the blue waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean. Its dormant volcano, known as the Quill, dominates the southern part of the island. Unlike taller Caribbean islands, Statia did not receive enough rainfall to make it especially attractive for large-scale sugar production. That made it less valuable to the great sugar powers of the 18th century, especially Britain and France. What Statia lacked in plantation potential, it made up for as a port. Oranje Bay, on the western side of the island, offered one of the deepest and safest nearshore anchorages in the Americas. Large merchant ships could come close to shore, unload their cargo and reload quickly. Along the bay stood a long, busy waterfront, lined with warehouses, shops and trading houses. By the mid-18th century, this narrow strip of shoreline had become one of the most important commercial centers in the Atlantic world. Imperialism Through TradeThe Dutch had settled St. Eustatius in the 1630s, around the same time they were developing New Amsterdam, now New York City. Dutch merchants, families and investors moved through a wide Atlantic network that connected Europe, Africa, the Caribbean and North America. These commercial ties created trust, credit and opportunity across long distances. In the 17th and 18th centuries, European empires tried to control colonial trade through mercantilism. Colonies were expected to enrich the mother country by supplying raw materials and buying finished goods through approved channels. Taxes, tariffs and trade restrictions benefited imperial governments and favored merchants, but they raised costs for ordinary colonists, shopkeepers and planters. British colonists in North America often resented these restrictions, but Dutch traders were willing to help them get around them. For generations, Dutch vessels carried goods throughout the Atlantic, often selling items at lower prices than British merchants could offer legally. Archaeological evidence from sites such as Pope’s Creek Plantation in Virginia, the Washington family home, shows the presence of Dutch ceramics, clay pipes and yellow bricks. Even before the Revolution, Dutch trade was woven into colonial life. ‘Emporium of the World’In 1754, the Dutch West India Company petitioned the Dutch government to make Oranjestad, the capital of St. Eustatius, a free port, and the request was granted. The result was extraordinary: Goods could move through the island with few restrictions and without the heavy taxes common elsewhere. The government profited from leases on land, warehouses and homes rather than from taxing every cargo. Merchants from across the Atlantic world quickly took advantage. Ships arrived carrying textiles, tools, foodstuffs, weapons, luxury goods and raw materials. They also carried captive African people, forcibly transported within the transatlantic slave trade and subjected to sale, detention, labor and violence. Enslaved Africans and their descendants were essential not only to the island’s plantations, but also to the households, waterfronts, warehouses and commercial networks that made this trade possible. St. Eustatius became, in the words often associated with the island, “the emporium of the world.” In modern terms, it functioned like an Amazon fulfillment center for the 18th-century Atlantic. Its prosperity, however, rested in significant part on slavery and on the unequal power that enabled imperial commerce to flourish. Adam Smith, often called the father of economics or the father of capitalism, noticed. In his 1776 book, “The Wealth of Nations,” Smith helped define economics as a modern field of study. Although he never visited St. Eustatius, Smith discusses the island, as it offered him a living example of what freer trade could produce: prosperity, speed, variety and commercial energy. The same system that made the island rich also made it dangerous to imperial powers. Britain and France depended on controlled colonial trade, but St. Eustatius showed what could happen when goods moved with fewer restrictions. It also showed how merchants, credit networks and shipping families could challenge empires without firing a shot.
When the American colonies declared independence in 1776, they desperately needed military supplies. The Continental Congress knew that ideals alone would not defeat Britain. The new United States needed muskets, cannons, ammunition, uniforms, cloth, food and credit. St. Eustatius was perfectly positioned to provide them. The island’s merchants had long-standing connections with North America, and some of the American founders knew these networks well. Alexander Hamilton, who grew up in the Caribbean, spent his youth in the commercial world of shipping, accounts and credit. His family had ties to the region, and the Caribbean trade helped shape his understanding of finance and power. St. Eustatius soon became a lifeline for the Revolution. American agents used the island to buy and ship supplies. Cargoes moved from Europe to Statia and then onward to North America. Arms and gunpowder that might have been impossible to obtain through official channels could be purchased through this Dutch free port. The First SaluteThen, in November 1776, a small but historic event took place in Oranje Bay. The Continental brigantine Andrew Doria arrived carrying a copy of the Declaration of Independence and flying the Continental Colors – the predecessor of the stars and stripes. Following maritime custom, the American vessel fired a salute. Fort Oranje answered with its own guns. This exchange became known as the First Salute. Many historians regard it as the first formal recognition of American independence by a foreign power. The gesture was brief, but its meaning was enormous. By returning the salute, St. Eustatius publicly acknowledged the flag and authority of the new United States. Britain understood the significance. The island was not merely a trading post; it was helping sustain rebellion. Over the next several years, much of the gunpowder, shot, cloth and other material that kept the American war effort alive passed through Statia’s warehouses and harbor. The story of St. Eustatius serves as a reminder that revolutions are not won by ideas alone. The American Revolution depended on farmers, soldiers, diplomats and political thinkers, but it also depended on merchants, sailors, warehouses and credit. Without St. Eustatius, without Dutch trade and without access to a free port in the Caribbean, the United States might not have survived long enough to celebrate any anniversary at all. The Revolution was a struggle for political independence, but it was also a struggle over who controlled trade. In that struggle, one tiny island helped change the course of world history. LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid. |
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