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Above-normal tropical activity, new ‘normals’ in the Atlantic and steering robotic surfboards into hurricanes

Good morning, readers.

Hurricane Wire is back and ready to bring you details of everything brewing in the Atlantic basin this season.

Experts believe we could be in for another busy tropical season but nothing quite as bad as what was experienced in 2020. Last year was a record-breaking one with 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does not believe this hurricane season will be as active as the last.

In a 2021 Atlantic hurricane outlook released last month, NOAA’s acting administrator Ben Friedman said the agency projects a 70% probability of 13 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

This may seem like quite a bit of projected tropical activity, but the baseline of “normal” changed in 2021 when meteorologists updated the 30-year period they use to determine average weather benchmarks. Moving forward, an average Atlantic hurricane season will have 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

So technically, NOAA’s predictions for this season are considered normal. Our Chloe Johnson reports that new weather benchmarks are reflecting a more active Atlantic season. However, scientists still disagree on whether climate change will lead to more hurricanes over the long term. Read more about that here.

Researchers with the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University predict there will be 35 days in which a hurricane is active this season, and nine days in which a major hurricane is active. Their forecast for the 2021 hurricane season nearly mirrors the Project’s early prediction for the 2020 season. But last year exceeded expectations in many ways.

Only time will tell what is in store for the Atlantic this year. So for now, let’s just stay vigilant.

What’s brewing

Conditions: Nothing is spinning in the Atlantic, but the National Hurricane Center has issued advisories on tropical depression Blanca located in the eastern Pacific. This is not a concern for South Carolina as the depression is several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Computer models: The Carolinas are expected to remain clear of threats for the foreseeable future.

Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic basin during the next five days. 

What we’re talking about

• Saildrone Inc. and the NOAA is hoping to get new insights into hurricane intensity by steering robotic surfboards into the storms, per Capital Weather Gang.
• According to Eye on the Storm, the increase in named storms in the Atlantic could be driven by at least five factors, including human-caused global warming.
• The NOAA predicts the 2021 hurricane season will include above-normal tropical activity, per The Post and Courier. 

“New normal” for hurricane season keeps rising

From 1981 to 2010, there were, on average, 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or above each year.

In the new period, 1991 to 2020, there were an average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes each year, according to data analyzed by Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami.

Hurricanes in history 

On May 7, 2015, surf powered by a tropical depression lured a stand-up paddle boarder into the water on Isle of Palms. The storm would become Tropical Storm Ana, with wind gusts reaching 60 mph near Little River and Cherry Grove Beach. (File/Staff)

Your questions, answered

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Hurricane Wire is a collaborative project produced by a team of Post and Courier journalists. Shamira McCray is its lead writer. Data visualizations are created by Bryan Brussee. “Hurricane in history” photos are curated by Matthew Fortner. The newsletter is produced and edited by Emily Daily and Matt Clough.