Quiet In the TropicsThe tropical Atlantic is quiet again. We have no organized features to track, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any form over the next two weeks. With only three weeks left in the hurricane season, there’s a good chance that we won’t see any more tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic until next season. The satellite view of the Atlantic shows only one feature of interest: an area of disturbed weather over and east of the Lesser Antilles. 
This visible satellite image shows only one feature of interest over the Atlantic tropics: an area of disturbed weather near the Lesser Antilles Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth That feature will crawl westward in the coming days. Strong westerly winds aloft will cause too much vertical shear for it to develop through at least this weekend. Conditions for it will be less hostile once it reaches the western Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. A few computer models think that this feature will become a tropical cyclone before reaching Central America, but not many. I think the chances of that happening are less than 10 percent. Even if a storm did form, there’s no reason to believe that it would ever affect South Carolina. The few models that show a storm forming are keeping it buried over Central America until it dissipates. While the tropics are not a concern for us now, and it may be months before we face any tropical threats again, it’s important to remain prepared. If it’s not something coming out of the tropics, it can be tornadoes, winter storms, and even earthquakes. So, check out those SCEMD webpages to be well-informed about disaster preparedness. This week’s weather has been a case study in why we love living in South Carolina, but the stretch of warm, dry days is about to end. A trio of fronts will make our weather more active and flip us into a January-like setup by Monday. The current weather map from the Weather Prediction Center shows where they are. 
The first is a stationary front to our south that will retreat northward this afternoon. It will only generate some clouds because we have dry air in place around the region. However, southwesterly winds ahead of the next front (now stretching from Lake Superior to Texas) will bring an increase in humidity. That front will cross South Carolina on Saturday and trigger a scattering of showers, perhaps as early as pre-dawn in the Upstate. The showers mainly stay confined to the north during the day, and a few spots may see a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Showers are likely to affect more of the state Saturday night. Otherwise, we remain warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s; the warmest spots could touch 80. A Pacific-origin air mass will move in behind this cold front, so temperatures don’t fall much on Sunday; in fact, much of the state will see highs in the 75-80° range again, with only the Upstate seeing slight cooling. However, our third front, the one now over the upper Midwest and Plains states, will reach us on Sunday. There is some uncertainty about how much moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic this front will be able to tap into. Some models keep us mainly dry as this front moves through, while others show more scattered showers and even some thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening across the Coastal Plain. Any thunderstorms that do pop up could be locally gusty. A polar air mass will rush in behind this front, causing the bottom to fall out of our temperatures. We go from October-like to January-like in hours. We drop to the 30s and 40s from Upstate to the coast by early Monday, and Monday’s highs will only range from the middle 40s along I-85 to the upper 50s at the coast. Monday’s also going to be blustery with gusts in the 30-35 mph range, making it feel even colder. Most of the state will see subfreezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a hard freeze over much of the Upstate and Catawba region. 
Forecast lows for Tuesday morning from the National Weather Service Image Source: WeatherBELL The cold blast looks to be transient. Tuesday will also be chilly with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s, but we’ll warm up again starting Wednesday as we return to the 60s. By Thursday, most places will see highs of 65-70°, and Friday through next weekend will likely feature highs in the 70s again. Most models show a cold front approaching us next weekend, but stalling to our north. Some say enough moisture will get involved with the front for stray showers for parts of our state, but others think we’ll stay dry. Speaking of dry, we’ve seen some improvements in this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor, which better captures the rain we saw about 10 days ago. However, a large chunk of the state is abnormally dry or in drought. 
While much of the state will see some rain over the weekend, amounts will be light in most places. So, this won’t bring any significant drought relief. Next week looks dry, rain chances for next weekend are low, and prospects for the following week are also not great. So, the drought will likely worsen and expand again over the coming weeks. Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office | 
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