2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: A Potential Break?

Early Look at the hurricane season

Fred Pickhardt May 6

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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may offer something we haven’t seen in a while — a bit of a break.

While the official outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) isn’t due until later this May, early indicators suggest that overall activity could trend near to slightly below historical averages.

The Big Driver: El Niño

The dominant factor shaping this season is the expected development of a moderate to potentially strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

Why does that matter?

• El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds over the Atlantic
• This creates strong vertical wind shear
• Wind shear disrupts developing storms, making it harder for hurricanes to form and intensify

Historical data backs this up. During strong El Niño years:

• Hurricanes decrease by roughly 30–40%
• Major hurricanes are often cut nearly in half

Tampa’s WFLA Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli recently highlighted this relationship, noting a significant drop in storm activity during past strong El Niño seasons.

Sea Surface Temperatures: A Mixed Signal

Ocean temperatures are another key ingredient this season:

Cooler-than-average waters have developed across the eastern and central Atlantic’s Main Development Region (MDR)

• This typically suppresses storm formation

However, warmer-than-normal waters persist in:

• The subtropical North Atlantic
• The Gulf of Mexico
• The western Caribbean

Bottom line: There’s a tug-of-war between atmospheric suppression (El Niño) and localized ocean warmth.

What the Forecasts Say

Several leading forecast groups have released early outlooks. When averaged together, they point to a slightly below-normal season:

• Named Storms: ~13.6 (historical average: 14)
• Hurricanes: ~6.1 (historical average: 7)
• Major Hurricanes: ~2.3 (historical average: 3)

Most forecasts cluster around this range, though one outlier (University of Arizona) suggests a more active season due to expected warmer than normal ocean temperatures.

Note: If El Niño strengthens further, these numbers could trend even lower.

Landfall Risk: Lower, But Not Zero

Even in quieter seasons, it only takes one storm to make it dangerous.

According to Colorado State University projections:

• 32% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline
  (vs. 43% historical average)
• 15% chance for the U.S. East Coast (including Florida)
• 20% chance for the Gulf Coast
• 35% chance for the Caribbean

Some forecasts, including AccuWeather, highlight the northern Gulf Coast and Carolinas as areas of elevated risk this year.

What the Pattern Suggests

Seasonal models based on sea surface temperatures indicate:

• Below-normal activity in the Gulf and Caribbean
• Near or slightly above-normal activity along the U.S. East Coast

This aligns with the current pattern of warmer subtropical Atlantic waters, which can sometimes shift storm tracks north and east.

Final Takeaway

A quieter season doesn’t mean a safe season.

Even during El Niño years, impactful hurricanes can and do occur. It only takes one landfalling storm to make a season memorable — especially for coastal communities.

Fred Pickhardt, Meteorologist

Ocean Weather Services

Forensic Marine Weather Expert

© 2026 Fred Pickhardt
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104
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