Analysis of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures – Fred Pickhardt
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There is a basin-wide cooling trend is occuring across different latitudes of the North Atlantic from mid-March to June 9. North Atlantic Trend (45N to 65 N)There has been a steep drop into negative territory since March when it was slightly warmer than normal. Currently the North Atlantic is in negative territory at about -0.23°C.
Central Atlantic Trend (25N to 45 N)The trend in the central North Atlantic has steadily declined and currently is near the longer-term normal. The mid-latitudes started at a high anomaly of about +0.55°C in mid-March, experiencing various fluctuations before dropping sharply in late May. The latest value is +0.08°C, barely hovering above the long-term climatological baseline.
Main Development Region (10-20 N, 20W to 85W)The overall trend of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) is consistently downward. In Mid-March into April, the anomaly was slightly below neutral (about -0.2°C). A temporary warming occurred in April to early May followed by a significant drop down to -0.7°C around May 26. Currently the anomaly sits firmly in negative territory at -0.44°C as of June 9.
Hurricane ImplicationsIntegrating the Central and Far North Atlantic data alongside the Main Development Region (MDR) data strengthens the outlook for a significanly suppressed hurricane season. |
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