Sep 12, 2026by: Curtis Hoff No Comments

Atlantic Tropical Outlook for September – Fred Pickhardt

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook for September

Fred Pickhardt

Sep 9

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The Atlantic basin is highly likely to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis through most of September. A strong El Niño base state is currently dominating global tropical weather, producing strong vertical wind shear across most of the tropical Atlantic, overwhelming the weaker Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal.

Wind Shear

The Main Development Region (MDR):

Tropical waves emerging from Africa into the MDR will face a hostile environment and experience only brief development, if any.

Subtropical Potential:

The only notable area for potential tropical or subtropical development is outside the deep tropics, over the western Atlantic, near or north of the Bahamas. Here there is a slight (20-40%) chance for tropical or subtropical develop[ment, most likely after the 22nd.