Our Coastal Storm, Jerry and KarenOur coastal storm is taking shape today over western Cuba, and it will track northward through Saturday, with the center staying offshore of South Carolina. The forecast for the storm remains largely unchanged from yesterday, with only our Coastal Plain expected to see significant impacts. 
This loop of forecast weather maps from the Weather Prediction Center shows the path of our coastal storm through Tuesday. While all of South Carolina will see it breezy to windy through Saturday, the strongest winds will be along our coast with peak gusts mainly in the 35-40 mph range. That’s not strong enough to cause noteworthy damage. It’s no fun to drive in, though. Coastal flooding is the one serious impact, with moderate to major coastal flooding along our coast ongoing as this reaches your inbox. We’ll have another round of flooding at the midday high tide on Saturday, but the highest water occurs with today’s high tide. Our coastal areas will also see heavy rain. Seeing rain move into the Charleston area as we approach high tide is concerning because it always amplifies the tidal flooding. Our coastal areas from Charleston County to the Grand Strand are likely to see 2-4 inches of rain through Sunday, with some locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall will trail off as you look further inland. However, there is some uncertainty in the rainfall forecast, which mainly involves differences in how our computer models handle the storm’s track and forward speed. Some have the storm tracking further west and moving more slowly. Those bring heavier rain to the coast (up to six inches through Sunday, locally higher amounts) and show more of the state receiving heavy rainfall (with 1-2 inches as far inland as the I-20 Corridor). It would be nice to see a soaking rain over more of the state since it’s been so dry over the last 6-8 weeks. However, there will be a risk for isolated flash flooding near our coast through at least Saturday night, and this risk may cover more of the Coastal Plain if the storm is slower and further west than currently forecast. The storm is helping to pull cool air in from the north, so look for our highs to remain in the 70s this weekend, with parts of the Coastal Plain remaining in the 60s Saturday due to the rain. The Upstate will be the warmest, with the thinnest clouds, and temperatures will reach the mid-70s on Saturday and the upper 70s on Sunday. The storm moves out to the northeast on Sunday, and we return to a tranquil weather regime again. We’re likely to remain dry and warm on Monday through Friday with highs mainly in the lower 80s across the state each day, though a dry cold front could bring in some slightly cooler air later next week. Out in the tropics, we have two named systems to track. Tropical Storm Jerry is the first, which continues to struggle against vertical wind shear. It looks very disorganized today with thunderstorms mostly far removed from the circulation center. Jerry is turning north and will remain far away from South Carolina, tracking east of Bermuda early next week. It may still become a hurricane over the weekend, but it has a lot of work to do to get there. Whether it strengthens or continues to struggle, it’s no direct threat to South Carolina. If it does strengthen into a hurricane and get strong enough, we could see swells from it causing marine and beach issues, but that’s looking less likely today. 
This loop of visible satellite images shows features of interest across the Atlantic Basin: - Our coastal storm taking shape near western Cuba
- Disorganized Tropical Storm Jerry centered north of the Leeward Islands
- Subtropical Storm Karen at top right passing north of the Azores
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth The other storm to track is newly-formed Subtropical Storm Karen, which formed last night … (checking notes) … northwest of the Azores at … (checking notes again) .. about 44° north latitude. That makes it the farthest-north forming named storm on record over the Atlantic. With Karen about 2700 miles away and moving toward Iceland to speak with their manager, Karen will not affect South Carolina. There are no other features across the Atlantic Basin that are a concern for development for at least the next 4-5 days. Most computer models suggest that the Caribbean could be a breeding ground for a storm in about a week, which would make sense from a climatological standpoint because this is the time of year when the Caribbean tends to be active. Stay ready; we have about seven more weeks of the hurricane season to go. If it’s not a hurricane, a non-tropical storm, or another disaster can affect us. If you need storm prep advice, visit hurricane.sc. Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office | 
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