Weather Alert  –  November 7, 2025

Quiet In the Tropics

The tropical Atlantic is quiet again. We have no organized features to track, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any form over the next two weeks. With only three weeks left in the hurricane season, there’s a good chance that we won’t see any more tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic until next season.

The satellite view of the Atlantic shows only one feature of interest: an area of disturbed weather over and east of the Lesser Antilles.

This visible satellite image shows only one feature of interest over the Atlantic tropics: an area of disturbed weather near the Lesser Antilles

Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth

That feature will crawl westward in the coming days. Strong westerly winds aloft will cause too much vertical shear for it to develop through at least this weekend. Conditions for it will be less hostile once it reaches the western Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. A few computer models think that this feature will become a tropical cyclone before reaching Central America, but not many. I think the chances of that happening are less than 10 percent.

Even if a storm did form, there’s no reason to believe that it would ever affect South Carolina. The few models that show a storm forming are keeping it buried over Central America until it dissipates.

While the tropics are not a concern for us now, and it may be months before we face any tropical threats again, it’s important to remain prepared. If it’s not something coming out of the tropics, it can be tornadoes, winter storms, and even earthquakes. So, check out those SCEMD webpages to be well-informed about disaster preparedness.

This week’s weather has been a case study in why we love living in South Carolina, but the stretch of warm, dry days is about to end. A trio of fronts will make our weather more active and flip us into a January-like setup by Monday. The current weather map from the Weather Prediction Center shows where they are.

The first is a stationary front to our south that will retreat northward this afternoon. It will only generate some clouds because we have dry air in place around the region. However, southwesterly winds ahead of the next front (now stretching from Lake Superior to Texas) will bring an increase in humidity. That front will cross South Carolina on Saturday and trigger a scattering of showers, perhaps as early as pre-dawn in the Upstate. The showers mainly stay confined to the north during the day, and a few spots may see a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Showers are likely to affect more of the state Saturday night. Otherwise, we remain warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s; the warmest spots could touch 80.

A Pacific-origin air mass will move in behind this cold front, so temperatures don’t fall much on Sunday; in fact, much of the state will see highs in the 75-80° range again, with only the Upstate seeing slight cooling. However, our third front, the one now over the upper Midwest and Plains states, will reach us on Sunday. There is some uncertainty about how much moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic this front will be able to tap into. Some models keep us mainly dry as this front moves through, while others show more scattered showers and even some thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening across the Coastal Plain. Any thunderstorms that do pop up could be locally gusty. 

A polar air mass will rush in behind this front, causing the bottom to fall out of our temperatures. We go from October-like to January-like in hours. We drop to the 30s and 40s from Upstate to the coast by early Monday, and Monday’s highs will only range from the middle 40s along I-85 to the upper 50s at the coast. Monday’s also going to be blustery with gusts in the 30-35 mph range, making it feel even colder. Most of the state will see subfreezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a hard freeze over much of the Upstate and Catawba region.

Forecast lows for Tuesday morning from the National Weather Service

Image Source: WeatherBELL

The cold blast looks to be transient. Tuesday will also be chilly with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s, but we’ll warm up again starting Wednesday as we return to the 60s. By Thursday, most places will see highs of 65-70°, and Friday through next weekend will likely feature highs in the 70s again. Most models show a cold front approaching us next weekend, but stalling to our north. Some say enough moisture will get involved with the front for stray showers for parts of our state, but others think we’ll stay dry.

Speaking of dry, we’ve seen some improvements in this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor, which better captures the rain we saw about 10 days ago. However, a large chunk of the state is abnormally dry or in drought.

While much of the state will see some rain over the weekend, amounts will be light in most places. So, this won’t bring any significant drought relief. Next week looks dry, rain chances for next weekend are low, and prospects for the following week are also not great. So, the drought will likely worsen and expand again over the coming weeks.

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office

Weather Alert  –  October 17, 2025

Tropics Quiet For Now; A Long-Range Concern

All is quiet on the Atlantic front today. We don’t have any named storms to track and only a few features of interest. That’s no surprise, as we are exiting the most active part of the hurricane season.

This loop of visible satellite images shows clouds associated with the
features of interest across the Atlantic Basin today.

Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth

The view from space shows an intense non-tropical storm off the East Coast, a band of clouds over the northern Caribbean Sea and Central Atlantic, and two tropical waves to the east of the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tells us that there are two areas to watch for development over the next week.

The storm off the East Coast has a slight chance to gain tropical characteristics over the weekend while it’s passing over the Gulf Stream. It’s a 10 percent chance of becoming a named storm, they say. For us, it doesn’t matter because it’s moving to the east and won’t impact us directly, whether it’s tropical or not. It’s a big storm that will churn up a lot of the Atlantic, potentially causing beach and boating impacts from the storm’s swells. However, the storm’s swells will primarily be directed toward the east and south, making them more of a problem for places like Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Atlantic-facing sides of the Greater Antilles than for the East Coast.

Of greater concern is the area to watch in the deep tropics. We have a pair of tropical waves moving in tandem across the tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands today, and you can see a gentle turning motion with the trailing one along 43° west. That’s the one that NHC has highlighted for possible development once it reaches the Caribbean Sea.

They’re giving it a 30 percent chance to develop over the next week. However, this feature will evolve slowly, and extending the window to 10 days would likely increase the development odds to even money or higher. Most computer models show a tropical cyclone prowling the central or western Caribbean Sea in a week or so. The Caribbean waters are very warm and contain a vast amount of heat energy to fuel a hurricane, so there would be a high ceiling on the potential intensity of a storm in this area.

However, that’s about all the valuable information that I can give at this point. There are too many variables in the long range to predict where this feature might eventually go. Most models show it turning north, crossing one of the Greater Antilles, and then tracking far to our east. However, a few indicate an eventual track toward the U. S. and possibly even South Carolina. If so, it would be more than 10 days from now, so there’s a lot of time to watch it.

The next name on this year’s list is Melissa, which is likely to be used for a storm in the Caribbean later next week or the following weekend. If the storm off the East Coast becomes tropical enough to earn a name, the next one on the list after Melissa is Nestor.

So, the bottom line is that hurricane season isn’t over yet, and we must remain prepared for potential threats. We all hope that the potential Caribbean development remains a Somebody Else’s Problem, but that’s not assured. If you’re not ready and need help getting prepared, hurricane.sc is your go-to resource for prep advice.

The Palmetto State remains in a stretch of tranquility that will continue through Saturday before a cold front moves in with a chance for rain on Sunday. Saturday looks lovely with a cool start followed by a warm afternoon; highs will mainly in the 75-80° range across the state. Then Sunday looks mainly cloudy, or with sun fading behind clouds along the Coastal Plain. The Upstate likely sees showers or steady rain starting before midday, while the rest of the state will likely have showers around during the afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but the severe storm risk is near zero. Most of the state sees 75-80° for highs again on Sunday, but the Upstate will be cooler due to the earlier arrival of rain.

The Upstate could see a modest amount of rain on Sunday (a quarter to half-inch), but widespread rain is unlikely elsewhere in South Carolina. That will only put a small dent in the Upstate’s drought, and relief elsewhere will be minimal.

This week’s U. S. Drought Monitor shows an end to the drought near the coast, but dry conditions continue elsewhere in South Carolina; about a fourth of the state is in drought.

The big soaking we ended up getting from last weekend’s coastal storm obliterated the drought across most of the Coastal Plain, but the rest of the state remains dry, and we can use whatever rain Sunday’s cold front brings. 

Dry weather returns for Monday, and it looks like we’ll see another long dry spell get underway. Monday will be cooler with highs mainly in the lower 70s across the state. Tuesday looks warmer as southerly winds ahead of another cold front pull in warmer air. However, this next front will likely be moisture-starved and generate no rain here.

Wednesday through Friday all look like pleasant and dry days with highs in the 70s. Early indications are that the dry spell will continue through next weekend and maybe the first part of the following week.

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office