LNM: Off AIWW, MM250.2, Areas of the New River Closed
SCHEDULED/NEW RIVER/ATON/SEC SNC BNM 0046-26
SCHEDULED/NEW RIVER/ATON/SEC SNC BNM 0046-26
SAFETY/PAMLICO RIVER – NORTH CREEK/ATON/SEC SNC BNM 0045-26
THE NORTH CREEK ENTRANCE LIGHT 1NC (LLNR 33220) IN THE PAMLICO RIVER HAS BEEN REPORTED AS DAMAGED AND EXTINGUISHED. BT |
Situational Update – Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Western Atlantic
The latest briefing for the western Atlantic is attached. This update covers the departing hurricane-force low with some residual gales-force winds to 40 kt and seas to 18 ft still affecting the eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve later today. If there are any questions email ncep.opc.idss@noaa.gov This will be the final update on this system. The next briefing will be issued as conditions warrant. Thank you! |
SAFETY/CAPE FEAR RIVER/ATON/SEC SNC BNM 0044-26
CAPE FEAR RIVER CHANNEL LIGHTED BUOY 25 (LLNR 30531) REPORTED OFF STATION AND MOVED TO APPROXIMATE POSITION 33-57.496N 077-57.398W (33°57.4960N / 077°57.3980W, 33.958267 / -77.956633) TO FACILITATE DREDGING. CANCEL AT//232112Z FEB 26// BT |
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A 1000 mb low at 36N 72W is moving NE at 25 knots with winds up to 45 knots and 5-meter seas. Within the next 30 hours the storm center will intensify significantly, with central pressure dropping to 966 mb. Winds will reach 55 to 70 knots with seas building 8 to 13 meters (approx. 26 to 43 feet) within 180 nm south of the low center. You’re currently a free subscriber to Fred Pickhardt’s Substack. |
Situational Update – Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Western Atlantic
The latest briefing for the western Atlantic is attached. This update covers the developing hurricane-force low that will affect portions of the mid-Atlantic waters near and over the Gulf Stream tonight into Tuesday. Winds over this area will increase to 60-70 kt with gusts up to 85 kt and seas will build to 18-32 ft. If there are any questions email ncep.opc.idss@noaa.gov The next scheduled briefing will be Tuesday, FEB 17, by noon EST or 1700 UTC. Thank you! |
NWS Tropical Atlantic Marine Weather Briefing – Feb 15, 2026
Good afternoon, Mariners! Key messages: — |
Situational Update – Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Western Atlantic
The latest briefing for the western Atlantic is attached. This update covers the developing hurricane-force low over the Mid-Atlantic waters later today through Tue evening. Winds will increase to 65-70 kt gusting 80-85 kt and seas will build to 20-34 ft. This is a dangerous situation with medium-high confidence that hurricane-force winds will occur Mon night into Tue. If there are any questions email ncep.opc.idss@noaa.gov The next scheduled briefing will be an update on Monday, FEB 16, by noon EST or 1700 UTC. Thank you! |
Situational Update – Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Western Atlantic
The latest briefing for the western Atlantic is attached. This update covers the low-pressure system developing off the mid-Atlantic coast by Sun night, then moving east and spreading storm-to-hurricane-force winds near and over the Gulf Stream by Mon night. Winds are now expected to increase to 55-65 kt with gusts up to 75 kt and seas will build to 20-34 ft. If there are any questions email ncep.opc.idss@noaa.gov The next scheduled briefing will be Sunday, FEB 15, by noon EST or 1700 UTC. Thank you! |
SAFETY/NC – NEW RIVER – CAPE FEAR RIVER/ATON/CGD-E BNM 0064-26
1. THE FOLLOWING AID TO NAVIGATION HAS BEEN RELOCATED. BT |
NWS Tropical Atlantic Marine Weather Briefing
Good afternoon mariners, Key messages: — |
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A powerful winter storm, forecast to intensify into a “bomb cyclone,” is expected to create dangerous marine conditions along the US East Coast and Western Atlantic from Saturday through Monday… ![]() Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app© 2026 Fred Pickhardt |
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Weather Alert – January 29, 2026 | |||||||||||
Snowstorm This WeekendKey Points:
It’s gonna snow this weekend, y’all, with impacts from the storm lingering into early next week. The only questions are how much, and who gets the heaviest. In the meantime:
Uncertainty remains in the forecast, but there is more confidence than before. We can provide you with an accumulation forecast now; here’s what the National Weather Service (NWS) is calling for:
The current questions are about where the heaviest snow falls and how much we all see. The heaviest snow may fall over tomato-and-vinegar country instead of here, though it’s most likely that some of the heavy snow will affect the northern part of the state. The greatest uncertainty for snow amounts is over the Grand Strand and lower Pee Dee region; the ceiling is pretty high there, but the most likely scenario is relatively low. I just did a quick check before sending this out; it looks like the NWS is in the process of increasing the forecast snow for the Pee Dee region, so don’t be surprised to see the forecast for that area being bumped up. Storms like these sometimes cause oddities, such as a large difference in snowfall over a relatively short distance, due to small bands of heavy snow that often form. Don’t be surprised if what falls in your backyard varies a lot from what a buddy of yours 15 miles away sees. The primary impact will be slippery travel, since it’s going to be mainly dry, fluffy snow (parts of the coastal Plain might see a brief period of freezing rain that would make elevated roads slick like a muddy pig). Snow-covered roads will be a problem Saturday through Monday morning, and it’s going to remain cold behind this storm, so the roads could remain slick for a while. How hard it will become to get around and how long the roads remain bad will depend on how much snow falls. If you’re in an area that could see over three inches, start planning to avoid travel from Saturday through at least Monday. Areas to the south are likely to see lower impacts, but travel will be hazardous at least through Saturday and Sunday morning. Bundle up if you go out to play in the snow or if you must be out for work or an emergency; this is among the coldest snow events we’ve seen. The frigid winds will bring a bite, so layer up! Do check your pipes if you didn’t before the last storm to ensure that they’re properly insulated, because it will be at least as cold behind this storm as it was after the last one. What else can you do now? Check out SCEMD’s SC Winter Weather Guide and ready.gov for tips, and go from there. Frank Strait | |||||||||||
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Weather Alert – January 28, 2026 | |||||||||||
Snow Likely This WeekendKey Points:
Another winter storm now looks likely for most or all of the state Saturday into Sunday. There is good computer model agreement that the storm will bring mainly snow, but they disagree on the amounts. Some show a major event with parts of the state seeing over six inches, while others show a peak of only a few inches. In the meantime:
Uncertainties remain because of the complexity of the weather pattern over North America. The primary weather feature is moving southward from Hudson Bay today. It will cross the Great Lakes on Friday and reach the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. It will then move through the Carolinas and depart to the northeast on Saturday night into Sunday. Pacific disturbances now south of Alaska and west of Baja California may join with the storm and add moisture. However, the computer models could be off on the timing of those Pacific disturbances, and they may end up not becoming involved. More available moisture would lead to more snowfall.
This annotated infrared satellite image shows the complexity of our current weather pattern that leads to the uncertainties with this weekend’s potential winter storm:
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth However, the range of scenarios points to at least a little snow falling over some or all of South Carolina as early as Friday night. Some scenarios would lead to less moisture available, and some would result in the storm not really getting its act together until it’s moving away from us. Others show the storm intensifying by the time it gets here, bringing a major snowstorm that affects most of the state. The truth is somewhere in between, but the model trend over the last day has been toward more snow. You can expect different impacts from this storm than from this past weekend’s, since it’s likely to bring snow rather than thick ice. Also, the snow will be dry and fluffy because it will be so cold, and it won’t adhere well to trees or power lines, so the risk for power outages will be low. Slick roads will be a problem, and it’s going to remain cold behind this storm, so the roads could remain slick for a while. How hard it will become to get around and how long the roads remain bad will depend on how much snow falls. It’s too early to give specific accumulation numbers (that’s coming tomorrow), but the area east of I-77 and north of U.S. 378 has the best chance of heavy snow. If you’re in that area, start planning to avoid travel Saturday through at least Monday. The rest of the state is likely to see lower impacts, but travel will be hazardous at least on Saturday and Sunday. What else do you do now? Check out SCEMD’s SC Winter Weather Guide and ready.gov for tips, and go from there.
Frank Strait | |||||||||||
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