Weather Alert  –  January 28, 2026

Snow Likely This Weekend

Key Points:

• Confidence is increasing for most or all of South Carolina to see a snowstorm this weekend.
• Mainly snow will fall, but many areas may see light rain at the onset, and parts of the Coastal Plain may see up to a few hours of sleet and freezing rain. However, the risk for power outages will be low because significant ice buildup is unlikely, and the snow will be dry and fluffy.
• Snow amounts are in question, and it’s still too early to provide specifics. However, it’s likely that the Catawba Region, the Pee Dee, and the Grand Strand will see the heaviest snowfall and have the best chance of three inches or more.
• The potential exists for slippery travel starting Friday night with snow falling through Saturday night. Roads may remain slippery for a few days where substantial snow falls because it will remain cold behind the storm, resulting in slow daytime melting and nighttime refreezing. The extent and duration of potential travel problems are uncertain.
• Winds will increase during the storm with peak gusts of 35-40 mph along the Coastal Plain and around 30 mph elsewhere on Sunday. The wind will cause blowing and drifting snow where we see a substantial accumulation. The winds will also drive wind chills down to the teens over most of the state on Saturday through Sunday and to the single digits Sunday night.

Another winter storm now looks likely for most or all of the state Saturday into Sunday. There is good computer model agreement that the storm will bring mainly snow, but they disagree on the amounts. Some show a major event with parts of the state seeing over six inches, while others show a peak of only a few inches.

In the meantime:

• We’ll remain dry ahead of the storm, but a moisture-starved cold front will move through tonight into Thursday. Highs on Thursday will range from the low 40s north to near 50 south.
• Clouds will increase on Friday ahead of the approaching storm. Highs on Friday will range from the low 40s in the Upstate to the upper 50s in the far south.

Uncertainties remain because of the complexity of the weather pattern over North America. The primary weather feature is moving southward from Hudson Bay today. It will cross the Great Lakes on Friday and reach the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. It will then move through the Carolinas and depart to the northeast on Saturday night into Sunday. Pacific disturbances now south of Alaska and west of Baja California may join with the storm and add moisture. However, the computer models could be off on the timing of those Pacific disturbances, and they may end up not becoming involved. More available moisture would lead to more snowfall.

This annotated infrared satellite image shows the complexity of our current weather pattern that leads to the uncertainties with this weekend’s potential winter storm:

• The track of the primary feature moving south from Hudson Bay is in question, and slight differences in its track could make a big difference in how severe the storm is for South Carolina.
• We may see weather features currently over the Pacific pulled into the weekend storm, and this would result in more moisture available and a more energetic storm.
• Other weather features not directly involved in the storm may still influence its behavior.

Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth

However, the range of scenarios points to at least a little snow falling over some or all of South Carolina as early as Friday night. Some scenarios would lead to less moisture available, and some would result in the storm not really getting its act together until it’s moving away from us. Others show the storm intensifying by the time it gets here, bringing a major snowstorm that affects most of the state. The truth is somewhere in between, but the model trend over the last day has been toward more snow.

You can expect different impacts from this storm than from this past weekend’s, since it’s likely to bring snow rather than thick ice. Also, the snow will be dry and fluffy because it will be so cold, and it won’t adhere well to trees or power lines, so the risk for power outages will be low. Slick roads will be a problem, and it’s going to remain cold behind this storm, so the roads could remain slick for a while. How hard it will become to get around and how long the roads remain bad will depend on how much snow falls. It’s too early to give specific accumulation numbers (that’s coming tomorrow), but the area east of I-77 and north of U.S. 378 has the best chance of heavy snow. If you’re in that area, start planning to avoid travel Saturday through at least Monday. The rest of the state is likely to see lower impacts, but travel will be hazardous at least on Saturday and Sunday.

What else do you do now? Check out SCEMD’s SC Winter Weather Guide and ready.gov for tips, and go from there.

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office

Weather Alert  –  January 9, 2026

Thunderstorms Saturday, Then Colder

For a change, there is a little weather excitement to outline today. A cold front now over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys is moving our way, bringing rain and thunderstorms, mainly to the Upstate. The front will usher in colder air starting Sunday into Monday.

An area of rain and thunderstorms will reach the Upstate this afternoon, primarily affecting the I-85 Corridor and points to the northwest. The rain could become heavy enough to cause isolated flooding in the far northwest, despite the ongoing drought in the area.

The risk for isolated flooding continues through most of Saturday before the rain and thunderstorms shift southeastward.

Thanks to the unseasonably warm air mass in place ahead of the front, we’ll also have a low-end, level 1 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms in the Upstate and vicinity.

The stronger storms moving through Saturday might cause locally damaging winds, and there is a risk of an isolated tornado or two.

In addition, it looks like winds will pick up early Saturday and remain gusty through the day, especially over the northern half of the state, with peak gusts around 35 mph. Motorists and pickleballers beware! Look for a wind shift late Saturday behind the front, and it remains breezy through Sunday.

While the severe storm threat drops to near zero as the front reaches the I-20 Corridor during the evening, that area and points south will see a scattering of showers as the front moves through Saturday night.

Colder air will move in behind the front Saturday night into Sunday. We will return to the reality of midwinter by Monday as temperatures running around 20° above average through Saturday shift to 4-8° below average on Monday.

High pressure keeps us tranquil and seasonable for Tuesday, then another cold front moves in on Wednesday. It is at this point that our forecast becomes complicated. We’ll enter a weather pattern that permits a winter storm to occur in South Carolina late next week. It will be the ol’ western North America upper ridge, eastern North America upper trough; the negative NAO, positive PNA combo that geeky snow lovers rave about.

One model (the GFS, the one whose output you take with the biggest grain of salt) has suddenly jumped on the idea that a storm blows up on our coast Thursday as fresh cold air blasts in, and the model throws down snow over nearly the whole state. Sus, as the young folks say these days. Other models show not much happening other than a solid blast of cold arriving Wednesday night and maybe a few showers.

However, the cold could still be entrenched when the next storm in line arrives around next Sunday. No promises, snow lovers, but I think our odds are better next weekend than later next week.

New Year, New (Old?) Weather Alert

I need to pass along a quick programming note. A couple of years ago, we decided to shift from issuing this regularly on Fridays only during hurricane season to year-round. The side effects of doing this made it more like a blog and less like an alert product, and it also forced us to ‘alert’ for several Fridays in a row when nothing truly alert-worthy was happening. So, we’ve decided to revert to the original schedule, where I only create these alerts each week during hurricane season and then send them on an as-needed basis during the rest of the year. So, today’s issuance will be the last regular Friday report until May 29, the Friday before hurricane season begins.

That said, there’s a good chance you’ll hear from me next week, since it looks like we’ll have at least one winter storm opportunity in the middle of the month. It may be warm now, but winter’s not over!

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office