Apr 25, 2026by: Curtis Hoff No Comments

Developing El Niño in 2026 – Fred Pickhardt

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Developing El Niño in 2026

Will there be a Super El Nino?

Fred Pickhardt

Apr 17, 2026

The Pacific is entering a transition phase in 2026, and while ENSO-neutral conditions are currently in place, the latest guidance from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center points toward a likely shift to El Niño this summer. But as always with spring forecasts, the details—especially strength—remain uncertain.

Current Conditions: Neutral for Now

Right now, the tropical Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state, meaning that the sea surface temperatures are near average and the Niño-3.4 index is close to -0.2°C and atmospheric patterns are not strongly favoring El Niño or La Niña. NOAA indicates an 80% chance that neutral conditions persist through April–June 2026, keeping things relatively stable—for now.

Subsurface Warming Signals a Shift

Beneath the surface, subsurface temperatures have increased for five consecutive months and warm anomalies now extend across much of the equatorial Pacific. At the surface, westerly wind anomalies have developed over the western North Pacific which are often a trigger for El Niño.

El Niño Likely by Summer

Forecast models are increasingly aligned with a 61% chance of El Niño developing by May–July 2026 with further development through the end of the year. This transition is supported by both dynamical and statistical models used by NOAA and other international forecasting centers.

What NOAA Says About Strength

The official NOAA probability tables (linked below) give a clearer picture of possible outcomes: View NOAA ENSO Strength Probability Table

El Nino forecasts made during the Spring have a high degree of uncertainty with a significant bias for over predicting the intensity. By the peak of the hurricane season, there is a 51% probability for a weak to moderate El Nino with a 41% probability for a strong to very strong event. By November to January, there is about equal probability for either a moderate, strong, or very strong El Nino.

For context:

Weak: ~0.5–0.9°C
Moderate: ~1.0–1.4°C
Strong: ≥1.5°C
Very strong: ≥2.0°C

Uncertainty: Summer Wind Patterns

The biggest factor determining how strong this El Niño becomes is how strong will the westerly wind anomalies persist through the summer? If they continue, warm water will surge eastward favoring a stronger El Niño. If they fade, the event may stay weak or stall in the moderate category.

The Spring Predictability Barrier

Forecasting ENSO in spring is notoriously difficult. Models often overestimate El Niño strength this time of year when atmospheric coupling is still developing. Early in the development, the models also tend to have a large range in outcomes as shown in the image below. Forecast confidence, however, improves significantly by early summer. This is why serious forecasters emphasize waiting until at least June.