Jul 10, 2026by: Curtis Hoff No Comments

Is El Niño hitting the brakes? – Fred Pickhardt

Fred Pickhardt’s Substack is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Fred Pickhardt’s Substack that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments.

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more

Is El Niño hitting the brakes?

Or racing to a historic event?

Fred Pickhardt

Jul 7

READ IN APP

The latest 7-day sea surface temperature (SST) trends reveal a clear pocket of localized cooling stretching from the coast of Ecuador westward to the Galapagos Islands!

What’s happening?

A recent surge of stronger easterly trade winds has triggered a localized upwelling of cooler ocean water to the surface. What will that mean in the longer term?

The Data:

The Niño 1+2 Index (coastal South America) has officially leveled off since mid-June.
The crucial Niño 3.4 Region (Central Pacific) is showing a similar flattening of its warming trendline.

Images: Tropical Tidbits

We will be watching whether or not this short-term cooling is just a local fluctuation or a more meaningful trend since most ENSO models continue to predict a rapidly developing very strong, to a historic El Nino.

Ocean Weather Services

Forensic Marine Weather Expert

You’re currently a free subscriber to Fred Pickhardt’s Substack. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.

Upgrade to paid