Weather Alert  –  October 2, 2026

No Imminent Threats, We’ll Watch the Gulf Next Week

The Atlantic has returned to inactivity. We have no active tropical cyclones, and it’s unlikely that any will form over the next week. We’ll watch the Gulf for possible development starting later next week.

The above loop of visible satellite imagery above shows features of interest across the North Atlantic and eastern U. S.:

• The remnants of Fay well to the southeast of Bermuda.
• Tropical waves along 74° west over the Caribbean Sea and along 38° west over the central tropical Atlantic.
• A band of clouds stretching from Texas to New England along a cold front.
• Disturbed weather over the eastern and central Gulf that will be drawn northward by the approaching cold front.

Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth

The only current feature of interest is the remains of Tropical Storm Fay, about 500 miles southeast of Bermuda, valiantly holding on in its fight to remain dead. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10 percent chance of resurrection. However, it will remain too far from South Carolina to affect us.

Two tropical waves are passing through the deep tropics, one south of Haiti and the other around 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Neither is generating much thunderstorm activity. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear will prevent the waves from developing further as they drift westward.

We’ll continue to watch cold fronts over the next week as they push through the Southeast and become stationary over the Gulf and southwestern Atlantic. Stationary fronts can become tropical cyclone breeding grounds over warm waters, and computer models indicate a low-end risk of a storm developing over the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf later next week or next weekend.

This hurricane season has been the quietest in many years (2014 was the last season with only 8 named storms) and the first in over a century with no hurricanes to date (1914 had no hurricanes; we might go without a hurricane this season). Nevertheless, we have to stay prepped. You know, it only takes one. So stay ready and visit hurricane.sc if you need prep advice.

SC Weather Highlights For the Next Week:

Our current hot spell (and perhaps the last of the year, we can only hope) will end after today, as a cold front moves in this weekend.

It’s great that we’ll cool off and, even better, we’ll see a soaking rain and thunderstorms over the weekend as a tropical air mass now over the Gulf gets pulled in by the front. Well, that’s not so great for outdoor plans you might have and for Saturday football (lightning delays are possible), but it will help with our drought.

The downside is that the heavy rain we’ll see this weekend could cause isolated flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center’s outlooks have the entire state at level 1 of 4 for flooding rain on Saturday, then level 2 on Sunday into Sunday night. The rain will linger into Monday along the coast and perhaps farther inland; there’s some uncertainty about how long it takes for the front to sag south far enough that even the Lowcountry dries out. In fact, the front may become stationary near our coastal areas, keeping clouds and maybe even a shower or two around into Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in the coastal Lowcountry. Most areas are likely to get 1-2 inches of rain in the coming days, with some areas seeing 3-4 inches locally.

WPC’s Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook graphic for South Carolina shows the entire state in a level 2 of 4 risk area for flooding rain Sunday and Sunday night.

We’re likely to remain dry elsewhere early next week, and across the state later next week, with the next chance of rain next weekend.

We’ll go from today’s summery warmth to early November-like temperatures behind the front. Saturday will be warm again with highs in the 80s, then near 70 in the Upstate to the low 80s in the Lowcountry on Sunday. It will be even cooler early next week; highs will be in the mid-to-upper 70s on Monday, then in the upper 60s and low 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Late next week looks a little warmer, but with highs still mainly in the 70s. Expect chilly mornings next week, with lows mainly in the 40s and 50s.

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office