Aug 31, 2026by: Curtis Hoff No Comments

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forms in Gulf – Fred Pickhardt

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forms in Gulf

Impacting Upper Texas & SW Louisiana

Fred Pickhardt

Aug 31

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five (formerly Invest AL97) as of 10:00 AM CDT, Monday, August 31, 2026.

Key Highlights

Tropical Storm Warning: Active from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana.
Current Position & Motion: Centered near 27.8N 91.0W (approx. 180 nm offshore), moving WNW (285°) at a slow 4 knots.
Current Intensity: Initial sustained winds set at 30 knots (35 mph) with gusts.
Expected Landfall Window: Reaching the Upper Texas or Southwestern Louisiana coast within 24 to 36 hours (Tuesday daytime to early Wednesday).

Meteorological Assessment & Rapid Intensification Potential

While Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance and satellite scatterometer passes show an elongated, ill-defined center on the system’s western side, the environment ahead is becoming favorable for rapid organization:

Warm Water: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) along the track are well above 30°C (86°F).
Low Shear: Deep-layer vertical wind shear remains minimal according to SHIPS guidance.
Small Physical Size: Because the system is compact, it is capable of quicker-than-forecast intensity changes.