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Poor fishermen off Honduras, or pirates-waiting-to-happen.
In the Caribbean, they’re all fishermen. Drugs smugglers in go-fast craft—fishermen. Pirates stalking you on a night passage—fishermen. And, in between all the shennanigans, some of these fishermen might actually go fishing.
So when Colombia says we killed a fishermen, and the U.S. says, no, we killed a smuggler, both sides may be telling the truth.
The Caribbean Safety & Security Network (CSSN) recently reported an encounter with fishing boats that is illustrative:
A yacht transiting from Guanaja, Bay Islands, Honduras to Grand Cayman altered course due to easterly winds and a developing tropical weather system, redirecting to Isla de Providencia, Colombia. The revised route traversed the Thunder Knoll area.
At position 16°00’34.4”N 81°02’31.3”W, approximately 145 nm northeast of the Honduras/Nicaragua border, at 1300 hours, the southbound yacht encountered three traditional lobster fishing boats. The yacht passed the first vessel without incident. As it approached the second boat, the lobster boat altered course, turning eastward on an intercept course. The third boat, (also west of the yacht), was moving southward in parallel.
Concerned about these maneuvers, the yacht executed a 180-degree turn northward and increased separation to approximately one nautical mile. The second vessel subsequently repositioned itself southeast of the yacht’s location.
Faced with deteriorating sea conditions (two-plus-meter waves) from the east, the yacht turned southward planning to pass between the first and second lobster boats, which were separated by over one nautical mile. As the yacht came closer to the second vessel, it again altered course toward the yacht. Simultaneously, the third boat turned and maneuvered northward, attempting to block passage between the first and second boats.
The yacht immediately turned hard to port (SE) and proceeded at maximum speed on a beam reach in 18-20 knot winds. While the first vessel did not pursue, vessels two and three followed for approximately three to four hours before discontinuing pursuit.
The yacht had been scanning VHF continuously and no transmissions between the three boats were heard, and none of the lobster boats attempted contact with the yacht. There were no injuries and the catamaran continued its passage without further incident. A report was made to the Colombian Coast Guard on arrival in Isla de Providencia.
When I was seminar manager for TrawlerFest, we had a class on firearms regulations along the American Great Loop and in the various Caribbean nations. Taught by a pair of lawyers, the class was agnostic about whether carrying guns was a good idea; it’s goal was only to summarize differences in laws and other factors worth considering.
The lawyers projected two different images in succession on the screen. One showed a pirate gang on a boat, the other showed a group of Caribbean fishermen on a boat. The audience was asked which they would unload their ARs upon, and, of course, no one could tell the difference. Pirates are as pirates do, not as pirates look.
The picture at the top of this story was taken when I was delivering a trawler from Isla Mujeres to the Panama Canal. The most direct route took us through shallow waters at the eastern tip of Honduras, where we anchored next to a cay to get a night’s sleep.
When I saw them approaching in the morning, we started the engines and raised anchor. They were scruffy looking and paddling with planks, but there were four of them and only two of us, and we didn’t have a gun. They hollered that they had marijuana for sale. I laid on the throttles and headed for deep water at full speed—8 knots—slow but more than enough to outrun that skiff.
My fear was that these four fishermen might have decided that this remote area was a perfect place to try out a new robbery gig.
To state the obvious, poverty is the reason fishermen are so easily recruited by criminal organizations. Even we in America are not immune. During the heyday of the “cocaine cowboys,” saying you were a commercial fisherman in South Florida was like wearing a t-shirt emblazoned with, “I smuggle coke in my boat.”
So, they know how to handle a boat. They’re not afraid to go to sea. And they need more money. They are fishermen.
Alejandro Andrés Carranza Medina was 26 when he was killed.
No fan of the Trump Administration, Colombian President Gustavo Petro declared that the United States had murdered a humble fisherman recently when it blew up a boat from under Alejandro Andrés Carranza Medina and his fellow mariners. Trump’s people responded that Carranza was smuggling drugs on behalf of a terrorist organization that threatened national security.
One should always check local news in Latin America for a better understanding of this kind of issue. The Informador of Santa Marta, Colombia, reported that Carranza was a more enterprising young man than Petro had given him credit for.
(Carranza’s) name is linked to a high-profile case that occurred in 2016 in Santa Marta, when he was captured along with five National Police officers for the disappearance and theft of 264 firearms that were allegedly sold to the criminal organization “Los Pachenca”…While the prosecuted officers pleaded not guilty, Carranza was identified as a key player in the arms trafficking plot that strengthened the criminal power of the aforementioned gang in the Caribbean region.
The port motor—if that’s what it is—appears to be in the up position. Carranza’s mother had said the boat her son was fishing in was experiencing engine probems when hit.
While it is difficult to be certain, it appears the boat in which Carranza was riding had twin outboards and was a dark color. Most panga-type open boats in the Caribbean are white or brightly colored and sport a single Yamaha for power. Fishermen may use their own boats to commit robberies at sea, but when carrying drugs, they are apt to use someone else’s go-fast (or a submersible “narco-sub.”)
So, circumstances suggest that Carranza’s income mosaic did indeed include a smuggling component.
Meanwhile, today’s Washington Post contained a well-sourced story noting that the boats we’ve been blowing up were almost certainly part of operations delivering drugs to Europe and West Africa, not North America.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
Trick, Treat & Trail Family Fun Run and Festival on Oct. 25 Get in the Halloween spirit with a fun-filled event for the whole family!
From: Sarah Reynolds <Sarah.Reynolds@ccprc.com> Date: August 25, 2025 at 1:00:00 PM EDT To: Sarah Reynolds <Sarah.Reynolds@ccprc.com> Subject:Trick, Treat & Trail set for Oct. 25: Family Fun Run and Festival at Wannamaker County Park
Trick, Treat & Trail Family Fun Run and Festival on Oct. 25 Get in the Halloween spirit with a fun-filled event for the whole family!
{NORTH CHARLESTON} — Get ready for a spook-tacular time at the second annual Trick, Treat & Trail Family Fun Run and Festival! Hosted by Charleston County Parks, the event will be held on Saturday, Oct. 25, beginning at 10 a.m., at Wannamaker County Park.
Check-in for the event and trick-or-treat bag distribution will be held from 9 a.m. – 12 p.m. at the Tupelo Shelter at Wannamaker County Park. The fun run begins at 10 a.m. The course closes for runners at 10:45 a.m. The course will re-open for trick or treating from 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. The Festival will be open for the entirety of the event 10 a.m. – 1 p.m. A costume contest will be held at 12:15 p.m. Registration includes a custom trick-or-treating bag, finisher medal, and candy.
Participants are invited to dress in costume. Prizes will be awarded for the best Halloween costume in the following age categories: Under 6, 6-8, 9-10, 11-15, 16-20, and 20 and up. Awards will also be presented for the best pet costume, best duo costume, and best group costumes of 3 or more. The costume contest will be held shortly after noon.
Admission to the race and event will be charged per vehicle of up to 15 people. Advance registration is $20 per vehicle and ends Wednesday, Oct. 23. If not sold out, registration will be available on-site for $25 per vehicle only until 12 p.m. Advance registration is recommended. Register for the event on the event webpage at https://www.ccprc.com/3715/Trick-Treat-Trail.
The fun run is open to runners and walkers of all levels, including beginners. Accessible parking and restrooms are available. The route includes a grass meadow and paved trails. This is a loop course with water stations and an optional shortcut route. Dogs are allowed at this event but must remain leashed and under control at all times.
This event is hosted by Charleston County Parks. For more information about this event and to register, please visit https://www.ccprc.com/3715/Trick-Treat-Trail or call (843)-795-4386.
Owned by the Charleston County Park and Recreation Commission, Wannamaker County Park is located at 8888 University Boulevard in North Charleston, SC (Hwy 78). The mission of CCPRC is to improve the quality of life in Charleston County by offering a diverse system of park facilities, programs and services. The large park system features over 11,000 acres of property and includes four land parks, three beach parks, three dog parks, a skate park, two landmark fishing piers, three waterparks, 19 boat landings, a climbing wall, a challenge course, an interpretive center, a historic plantation site, an equestrian center, cottages, a campground, a marina, as well as wedding, meeting and event facilities.The park system also offers a wide variety of recreational services – festivals, camps, classes, programs, volunteer opportunities, and more. For more information, call 843-795-4386 or visit www.charlestoncountyparks.com.
Charleston County Park & Recreation Commission / 861 Riverland Dr. / Charleston, SC 29412 / (843) 795-4386
Oriental is a wonderful place with friendly people and good food. And, if you do stop here, by all means, eat at our good friends at Toucan’s Grill and stay at Oriental Marina, a SALTY SOUTHEAST CRUISERS’ NET SPONSOR!
A longtime CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, historic Edenton always has an exciting calendar of events and places to visit! Edenton is at the mouth of the Chowan River on the northwest shore of Albemarle Sound.
Hello!
Here in Edenton, we are quickly moving into the heart of the fall.
The vast cotton fields are almost picked bare, with white wisps of the harvest dotting the side of the roads, and the peanut harvest is nearly complete, with but a few more fields with neatly arranged rows of peanuts drying in the October sun. The weather is starting to turn toward a pleasant coolness, and the trees are just beginning to shed green in favor of more vibrant colors.
If you are looking for a pleasant fall getaway, you should consider Edenton.
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.
This illustration shows the Catalina 48 design, announced in August and billed as the first of a new generation. It is a Bill Tripp design.
Back in May, a marine industry player described as a “boatbuilding entrepreneur” purchased one of America’s last production boatbuilders, Catalina Yachts. Happy talk ensued, not just about the venerable sailboat brand, but sister company True North, Catalina’s sister company for Downeast style power craft.
“We’re not just preserving the legacy—we’re building upon it,” Michael Reardon said. “Catalina and True North are iconic American brands. I’m honored to lead them into the next era of growth and innovation.”
Earlier this week operations at Catalina’s Largo, Florida, plant were suspended temporarily. The announcement was made by company President Patrick Turner, who had been promoted from sales manager under the new ownership. Turner said:
We have initiated a temporary production pause while we reorganize key areas of our operation. Like many manufacturers in today’s environment, we are navigating short-term financial challenges. Rather than pushing ahead in a way that could compromise quality or consistency, we have chosen to take a responsible pause while we finalize the support needed to move forward stronger.
The company had little choice, if an employee named Lisa Cayce is to be believed. “The new owner, Michael Reardon, had not paid our wages for the past two months and our insurance was cancelled. We had meeting today and hopefully we will be back in two weeks when the owner pays and the vendors,” Cayce wrote on the Catalina Parts & Pieces Facebook Page.
Reardon is founder of Daedulus Yachts of North Carolina, a company once described by sailing writer George Day as a “high-tech disruptor.” Reardon’s partner in Daedulus is Stefan Muff, who created the technology for Google Maps.
In late August, Reardon announced the acquisition of the classic American brands Tartan, Freedom and AMP Spars from Seattle Yachts. Freedom was just a brand name with no assets. Although Tartan was struggling at the time of sale, it hadn’t stopped building boats at it’s Ohio factory and apparently production continues today.
Also in August, Catalina announced that was bringing a new model to the market. The 48 represented a new look from a partnership with Tripp Yacht Design to bring a new Catalina 48 to market. It was billed as the first of several new generation models.
Since 1970
Catalina Yachts was founded in 1970 by Frank Butler, with the first model being the Catalina 22, quickly followed by the Catalina 27.
In May 1984 the California company acquired Morgan Yachts in Largo, Florida, a division that specialized in cruising and charter boats. True North was acquired in 2019 to establish the company in the powerboat market.
At one point, Catalina was the biggest sailboat manufacturer in the world and has sold more than 100,000 boats to date. The 22 is one of the most successful sailboats in history with nearly 18,000 sold.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
Attention all concerned boaters! The Ortona Lock mechanical failure (NTN 2025-023) has been resolved and the lock is now fully operational.
Navigation locks along the Okeechobee Waterway remain open and staffed during a government shutdown. Ensuring safe passage for boaters and supporting water management are mission-essential functions that do not pause. Although staffed at minimal levels, crews stay on to ensure safe passage for vessels, regulate water levels, and support flood risk management.
For up-to-date Lock information, contact the shift operator 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. at:
St Lucie Lock & Dam 772-287-2665 or 863-662-9148
Port Mayaca Lock & Dam 561-924-2858 or 863-662-9424
Julian Keen, Jr. Lock & Dam 863-946-0414 or 863-662-9533
Ortona Lock & Dam 863-675-0616 or 863- 662-9846
W.P. Franklin Lock & Dam 239-694-5451 or 863-662-9908
Canaveral Lock 321-783-5421 or 863-662-0298 (6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.)
Thank you! Jeff
Jeffrey D Prater Public Affairs Specialist Corporate Communications Office U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District South Florida Office 4400 PGA Blvd. Suite 501 Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410 Cell: 561-801-5734 jeffrey.d.prater@usace.army.mil Twitter @JaxStrong Jacksonville District Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JacksonvilleDistrict
Great news for the cruising community. One of my personal favorite marinas is going to be rebuilt four years after being destroyed by Hurricane Ian in September 2022. Legacy Harbour was a longtime CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, and we look forward to their new 131 slip marina featuring Bellingham’s wave attenuator and dock systems. Construction is expected to be completed in Spring 2026.
Thanks to Dawn Matheson of GoChesapeake for forwarding this updated schedule, effective October 21st. GoChesapeake is a Cruisers Net sponsor and organizes the Marker 12 Event at Atlantic Yacht Basin for the boating community. See below for more details.
Marker 12 Events – Every Tuesday and Friday in October
Located at mile marker 12 on the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway, the Marker 12 Pop-Up Bar is open exclusively to our waterway guests.
This outdoor pop-up bar is open seasonally on Tuesdays and Fridays in May and mid-September thru mid-October and features locally brewed craft beers, wine and light hors d’oeuvres.
Hours
4:30 – 7:00 PM Tuesdays and Fridays Weather Permitting
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.
The hybrid jetski-pontoon boat accident that killed four women on a Maine lake happened after it had undergone recall repairs intended to improve stability underway, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.
The Sea-Doo Switch, subject of numerous Loose Cannon articles, is now the subject of a U.S. Coast Guard Safety Alert due to a “capsizing hazard.”
Maine Inland Fisheries & Wildlife initiated an investigation after a triple fatality over Labor Day weekend on Flagstaff Lake in Maine. One of the questions to be answered was whether the vessel had undergone safety repair work as part of a factory recall earlier in the year. The purpose of the repair was to make the vessel less like to flip forward.
According to the Coast Guard, the recall repairs had been performed on the vessel in question. “As a result, the Coast Guard is currently evaluating the recall repair procedures to determine if additional action is required to mitigate the hazard,” the Safety Alert said.
The Alert described the Switch “capsizing hazard” in this paragraph entitled “Vessel Design and Unsafe Operating Condition”:
The Switch is designed such that while at rest, its center hull allows water to enter the hull, and while operating on a plane, the entrained water empties. However, until the water fully empties, trim by the bow can occur, especially with passenger weight forward. The dynamics are such that any abrupt change in speed or direction could induce forces sufficient to cause capsizing, especially when slowing down towards idle speed.
You can download the Safety Alert in its entirety here:
None of the four fatalities and one case of lifelong incapitazation involved alcohol, according to investigators. So far, no charges have been filed against the operators involved in the accidents.
For more stories about the Switch, visit the Loose Cannon website and enter “Sea-Doo” into the search field.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.
The author chairs the Department of Science, Technology & Society at the Rochester Institute of Technology. This story was first published on October 15, 2025 in The Conversation and is reprinted here with permission.
By CHRISTINE KEINER
If you visit the Erie Canal today, you’ll find a tranquil waterway and trail that pass through charming towns and forests, a place where hikers, cyclists, kayakers, bird-watchers and other visitors seek to enjoy nature and escape the pressures of modern life.
However, relaxation and scenic beauty had nothing to do with the origins of this waterway.
When the Erie Canal opened 200 years ago, on October 26, 1825, the route was dotted with decaying trees left by construction that had cut through more than 360 miles of forests and fields, and life quickly sped up.
Mules on the towpath along the canal could pull a heavy barge at a clip of four miles per hour—far faster than the job of dragging wagons over primitive roads. Boats rushed goods and people between the Great Lakes heartland and the port of New York City in days rather than weeks. Freight costs fell by 90 percent.
As many books have proclaimed, the Erie Canal’s opening in 1825 solidified New York’s reputation as the Empire State. It also transformed the surrounding environment and forever changed the ecology of the Hudson River and the lower Great Lakes.
For environmental historians like me, the canal’s bicentennial provides an opportunity to reflect upon its complex legacies, including the evolution of U.S. efforts to balance economic progress and ecological costs.
Communities Ruptured
The Haudenosaunee Confederacy, the Indigenous nations that the French called the Iroquois, engaged in canoe-based trade throughout the Great Lakes and Hudson River valley for centuries. In the 1700s, that began to change as American colonists took the land through brutal warfare, inequitable treaties and exploitative policies.
That Haudenosaunee dispossession made the Erie Canal possible.
After the Revolutionary War, commercial enthusiasm for a direct waterborne route to the West intensified. Canal supporters identified the break in the Appalachian Mountains at the junction of the Mohawk River and the Hudson as a propitious place to dig a channel to Lake Erie.
Yet cutting a 363-mile-long waterway through New York’s uneven terrain posed formidable challenges. Because the landscape rises 571 feet between Albany and Buffalo, a canal would require multiple locks to raise and lower boats.
An 1839 view looking eastward from the top lock at Lockport, N.Y., where a series of five locks raised the Erie Canal about 60 feet. Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Federal officials refused to finance such “internal improvements.” But New York politician DeWitt Clinton was determined to complete the project, even if it meant using only state funds. Critics mocked the $7 million megaproject, worth around US$170 million today, calling it “DeWitt’s Ditch” and “Clinton’s Folly.” In 1817, however, thousands of men began digging the four-foot-deep channel using hand shovels and pickaxes.
The construction work produced engineering breakthroughs, such as hydraulic cement made from local materials and locks that lifted the canal’s water level about 60 feet at Lockport, yet it obliterated acres of wetlands and forests.
After riding a canal boat between Utica and Syracuse, the writer Nathaniel Hawthorne described the surroundings in 1835 as “now decayed and death-struck.”
However, most canalgoers viewed the waterway as a beacon of progress. As a trade artery, it made New York City the nation’s financial center. As a people mover, it fueled religious revivals, social reform movements and the growth of Great Lakes cities.
Barges on the Erie Canal in Syracuse around 1900, before the canal’s commerce through the city was rerouted and stretches of it through downtown were filled in and paved. Its path is now Erie Boulevard. Detroit Publishing Company/Library of Congress
The Erie Canal’s socioeconomic benefits came with more environmental costs: The passageway enabled organisms from faraway places to reach lakes and rivers that had been isolated since the end of the last ice age.
Invasive Species Expressway
On October 26, 1825, Gov. Clinton led a flotilla aboard the Seneca Chief from Buffalo to New York City that culminated in a grandiose ceremony.
To symbolize the global connections made possible by the new canal, participants poured water from Lake Erie and rivers around the world into the Atlantic at Sandy Hook, a sand spit off New Jersey at the entrance to New York Harbor. Observers at the time described the ritual of “commingling the waters of the Lakes with the Ocean” in matrimonial terms.
Clinton was an accomplished naturalist who had researched the canal route’s geology, birds and fish. He even predicted that the waterway would “bring the western fishes into the eastern waters.”
Biologists today would consider the “Wedding of the Waters” event a biosecurity risk.
The Erie Canal and its adjacent feeder rivers and reservoirs likely enabled two voracious nonnative species, the Atlantic sea lamprey and alewife, to enter the Great Lakes ecosystem. By preying on lake trout and other highly valued native fish, these invaders devastated the lakes’ commercial fisheries. The harvest dropped by a stunning 98 percent from the previous average by the early 1960s.
Sea lampreys—eel-like creatures with mouths like suction cups—cut the lake trout population by 98%, and most of the fish that survived had lamprey marks on them. These invasive species began appearing in the Great Lakes after the Erie Canal opened. T. Lawrence/NOAA Great Lakes, CC BY-SA
Tracing their origins is tricky, but historical, ecological and genetic data suggest that sea lampreys and alewives entered Lake Ontario via the Erie Canal during the 1860s. Later improvements to the Welland Canal in Canada enabled them to reach the upper Great Lakes by the 1930s.
Protecting the $5 billion Great Lakes fishery from these invasive organisms requires constant work and consistent funding. In particular, applying pesticides and other techniques to control lamprey populations costs around $20 million per year.
The invasive species that has inflicted the most environmental and economic harm on the Great Lakes is the zebra mussel. Zebra mussels traveled from Eurasia via the ballast water of transoceanic ships using the St. Lawrence Seaway during the 1980s. The Erie Canal then became a “mussel expressway” to the Hudson River.
The hungry invading mussels caused a nearly tenfold reduction of phytoplankton, the primary food of many species of the Hudson River ecosystem. This competition for food, along with pollution and habitat degradation, led to the disappearance of two common species of the Hudson’s native pearly mussels.
Dense mats of water chestnut infesting the western end of the Erie Canal in 2010. The weeds cut off sunlight for aquatic plants and impede fish movement, and they must be mechanically removed. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Today, the Erie Canal remains vulnerable to invasive plants, such as water chestnut and hydrilla, and invasive animals such as round goby. Boaters, kayakers and anglers can help reduce bioinvasions by cleaning, draining and drying their equipment after each use to avoid carrying invasive species to new locations.
Recreational Treasure
During the Gilded Age in the late 1800s, the Erie Canal sparked a utilitarian sense of environmental concern. Timber cutting in the Adirondack Mountains was causing so much erosion that the eastern canal’s feeder rivers were filling up with silt.
To protect these waterways, New York created Adirondack Park in 1892. Covering 6 million acres, the park balances forest preservation, recreation and commercial use on a unique mix of public and private lands.
Erie Canal shipping declined during the 20th century with the opening of the deeper and wider St. Lawrence Seaway and competition from rail and highways. The canal still supports commerce, but the Erie Canalway National Heritage Corridor now provides an additional economic engine.
In 2024, 3.84 million people used the Erie Canalway Trail for cycling, hiking, kayaking, sightseeing and other adventures. The tourists and day-trippers who enjoy the historic landscape generate over $300 million annually.
Over the past 200 years, the Erie Canal has both shaped, and been shaped by, ecological forces and changing socioeconomic priorities. As New York reimagines the canal for its third century, the artificial river’s environmental history provides important insights for designing technological systems that respect human communities and work with nature rather than against it.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
All is quiet on the Atlantic front today. We don’t have any named storms to track and only a few features of interest. That’s no surprise, as we are exiting the most active part of the hurricane season.
This loop of visible satellite images shows clouds associated with the features of interest across the Atlantic Basin today.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The view from space shows an intense non-tropical storm off the East Coast, a band of clouds over the northern Caribbean Sea and Central Atlantic, and two tropical waves to the east of the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tells us that there are two areas to watch for development over the next week.
The storm off the East Coast has a slight chance to gain tropical characteristics over the weekend while it’s passing over the Gulf Stream. It’s a 10 percent chance of becoming a named storm, they say. For us, it doesn’t matter because it’s moving to the east and won’t impact us directly, whether it’s tropical or not. It’s a big storm that will churn up a lot of the Atlantic, potentially causing beach and boating impacts from the storm’s swells. However, the storm’s swells will primarily be directed toward the east and south, making them more of a problem for places like Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Atlantic-facing sides of the Greater Antilles than for the East Coast.
Of greater concern is the area to watch in the deep tropics. We have a pair of tropical waves moving in tandem across the tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands today, and you can see a gentle turning motion with the trailing one along 43° west. That’s the one that NHC has highlighted for possible development once it reaches the Caribbean Sea.
They’re giving it a 30 percent chance to develop over the next week. However, this feature will evolve slowly, and extending the window to 10 days would likely increase the development odds to even money or higher. Most computer models show a tropical cyclone prowling the central or western Caribbean Sea in a week or so. The Caribbean waters are very warm and contain a vast amount of heat energy to fuel a hurricane, so there would be a high ceiling on the potential intensity of a storm in this area.
However, that’s about all the valuable information that I can give at this point. There are too many variables in the long range to predict where this feature might eventually go. Most models show it turning north, crossing one of the Greater Antilles, and then tracking far to our east. However, a few indicate an eventual track toward the U. S. and possibly even South Carolina. If so, it would be more than 10 days from now, so there’s a lot of time to watch it.
The next name on this year’s list is Melissa, which is likely to be used for a storm in the Caribbean later next week or the following weekend. If the storm off the East Coast becomes tropical enough to earn a name, the next one on the list after Melissa is Nestor.
So, the bottom line is that hurricane season isn’t over yet, and we must remain prepared for potential threats. We all hope that the potential Caribbean development remains a Somebody Else’s Problem, but that’s not assured. If you’re not ready and need help getting prepared, hurricane.sc is your go-to resource for prep advice.
The Palmetto State remains in a stretch of tranquility that will continue through Saturday before a cold front moves in with a chance for rain on Sunday. Saturday looks lovely with a cool start followed by a warm afternoon; highs will mainly in the 75-80° range across the state. Then Sunday looks mainly cloudy, or with sun fading behind clouds along the Coastal Plain. The Upstate likely sees showers or steady rain starting before midday, while the rest of the state will likely have showers around during the afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but the severe storm risk is near zero. Most of the state sees 75-80° for highs again on Sunday, but the Upstate will be cooler due to the earlier arrival of rain.
The Upstate could see a modest amount of rain on Sunday (a quarter to half-inch), but widespread rain is unlikely elsewhere in South Carolina. That will only put a small dent in the Upstate’s drought, and relief elsewhere will be minimal.
This week’s U. S. Drought Monitor shows an end to the drought near the coast, but dry conditions continue elsewhere in South Carolina; about a fourth of the state is in drought.
The big soaking we ended up getting from last weekend’s coastal storm obliterated the drought across most of the Coastal Plain, but the rest of the state remains dry, and we can use whatever rain Sunday’s cold front brings.
Dry weather returns for Monday, and it looks like we’ll see another long dry spell get underway. Monday will be cooler with highs mainly in the lower 70s across the state. Tuesday looks warmer as southerly winds ahead of another cold front pull in warmer air. However, this next front will likely be moisture-starved and generate no rain here.
Wednesday through Friday all look like pleasant and dry days with highs in the 70s. Early indications are that the dry spell will continue through next weekend and maybe the first part of the following week.
Frank Strait Severe Weather Liaison S.C. State Climate Office
South Carolina Department of Natural Resources 260 D. Epting Lane West Columbia, SC, 29172
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