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    • CURRENT LOCAL NOTICES TO MARINERS

      Here are the latest Local Notices to Mariners and NAV ALERTS that are relevant to ICW cruising in Districts 5, 7 and 8, the OBX, AICW, OWW, Keys, GIWW and adjacent waters. Open each LNM link for the USCG notice and a chart for each location. Listed north to south to north. NAV ALERTS will also be posted on our Homepage.

      For previous Local Notices, go to the Specific State or Region on our Homepage

       

      Week 29/26

      LNM: Off GIWW-East MM:103.9, Bayou Casotte Channel Light 5 Extinguished

      LNM: Off WW, Bull Breakers Buoy 2BB Missing

      LNM: GIWW MM:102.0, Tampa Bay Cut A Channel Range Front Light is Dim

      LNM: Off WW, Port Manatee Channel Inbound Range Front Light Extinguished

      LNM: Off WW, Alafia River Range Front Light is Dim

      LNM: AIWW MM:1,005.2, Loxahatchee River South Channel Daybeacon 14 Missing

      LNM: AIWW MM:1,005.2, Loxahatchee River South Channel Daybeacon 12 Missing

      LNM: Off WW, Hatteras Connector Buoy 7 Discontinued

      LNM: Off WW, Hatteras Connector Buoy 7A Discontinued

      LNM: Off , Hatteras Connector Buoy 13A Relocated

      LNM: Off WW, Hatteras Connector Buoy 10 Relocated

      LNM: Off , Hatteras Connector Buoy 13A Relocated

      LNM: Off , Hatteras Connector Lighted Buoy 11 Relocated

      LNM: Off WW, Hatteras Connector Buoy 6A Relocated

      LNM: Off WW, Hatteras Connector Buoy 9 Relocated

      LNM: Off WW, Hatteras Connector Lighted Buoy 8 Relocated

      LNM: Off AIWW MM:1,100.7, Fowey Rocks Light Reduced Intensity

      LNM: Off AIWW MM:1,090.5, Fishermans Channel Light 3 Leaning

      LNM: AIWW MM:785.3, Matanzas River Daybeacon 38 Missing

      LNM: GIWW MM:65.0, Venice Inlet-Siesta Key Daybeacon 42 Set TRLB

      LNM: Off , Hatteras Connector Lighted Buoy 3 Missing

      LNM: Off WW, Winyah Bay Channel Lighted Buoy 23 Temporarily Disestablished

      LNM: AIWW MM:308.7, Cape Fear River Channel Lighted Buoy 16A Relocated

      LNM: AIWW MM:308.6, Cape Fear River Channel Lighted Buoy 16 Relocated

      LNM: AIWW MM:709.4, Cumberland Sound Upper Range C Rear Light Extinguished

      LNM: Off AIWW MM:713.8, St Marys River Daybeacon 12 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:669.9, Brownsville Channel E Outbound Directional Light Extinguished

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:168.9, Pensacola-Mobile Daybeacon 50 Extinguished

      LNM: Off GIWW-East, Dog River Channel Light 8 Extinguished

      LNM: Off GIWW-East, Dog River Channel Light 8 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:472.1, Matagorda Bay Buoy 58 Missing

      LNM: Off AIWW, Bethel Shoal Lighted Buoy 10 Submerged

      LNM: Off WW, Bass Inlet Daybeacon 7 Destroyed

      LNM: AIWW MM:324.8, Cape Fear River – Little River Daybeacon 55 Relocated

      LNM: AIWW MM:324.8, Cape Fear River – Little River Daybeacon 55 Set TRUB

      LNM: GIWW MM:65.0, Venice Inlet-Siesta Key Daybeacon 42 Destroyed

      LNM: AIWW MM:324.8, Cape Fear River – Little River Daybeacon 55 Destroyed

      LNM: Off GIWW-West MM:465.2, Palacios Channel Light 13 Leaning

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:637.7, Land Cut-Arroyo Colorado Daybeacon 107 Extinguished

      LNM: AIWW MM:785.3, Matanzas River Daybeacon 38 Missing

       

      Week 28/26

      LNM: AIWW MM:375.6, Little River-Winyah Bay Light 29 Damaged

      LNM: Off GIWW, North Apollo Beach Daybeacon 17 Missing

      LNM: Off GIWW, North Apollo Beach Daybeacon 15 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:644.1, Arroyo Colorado Cutoff Channel Buoy 5 Offstation

      LNM: AIWW MM:325.4, Cape Fear River – Little River Daybeacon 57 Extinguished

      LNM: Off GIWW-East, Mobile Channel Light 68 Missing

      LNM: Off GIWW-West MM:629.7, Port Mansfield Channel Daybeacon 34 Destroyed

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:643.6, Land Cut-Arroyo Colorado Buoy 135 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:639.5, LAND CUT-ARROYO COLORADO LIGHT 115 Destroyed

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:168.9, Pensacola-Mobile Daybeacon 50 Missing

      LNM: AIWW MM:127.4, Pungo River Channel Light 23 Extinguished

      LNM: Off GIWW-West MM:629.9, Port Mansfield Channel Daybeacon 11 Damaged

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:643.9, Arroyo Colorado Cutoff Channel North Entrance Buoy 2N Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:643.6, Land Cut-Arroyo Colorado Buoy 135 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:639.5, LAND CUT-ARROYO COLORADO LIGHT 115 Destroyed

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:630.0, Land Cut-Arroyo Colorado Daybeacon 74 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:636.0, LAND CUT-ARROYO COLORADO LIGHT 99 Damaged

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:633.1, Land Cut-Arroyo Colorado Light 88 Missing

      LNM: Off GIWW-West MM:629.8, Port Mansfield Channel Daybeacon 31 Destroyed

      LNM: Off GIWW-West MM:629.7, Port Mansfield Channel Daybeacon 34 Destroyed

      LNM: Off GIWW-West MM:633.1, Port Mansfield Channel Light 4 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:148.9, Pensacola-Mobile Buoy 114 Offstation

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:148.9, Pensacola-Mobile Buoy 113 Offstation

      LNM: Off AIWW, St Marys Entrance Lighted Buoy 4 Offstation

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:54.1, Marianne Channel Daybeacon 26 Destroyed

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:646.8, Harlingen-Port Isabel Daybeacon 12 Destroyed

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:206.0, Santa Rosa Sound Daybeacon 96 Set TRUB

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:281.7, North Bay Daybeacon 1 Destroyed

      LNM: Off , Brownsville Channel C Range Rear Light Extinguished

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:660.3, Harlingen-Port Isabel Daybeacon 59 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:499.3, San Antonio Bay Daybeacon 24 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:496.5, San Antonio Bay Light 15 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:40.8, Lake Borgne Daybeacon 7 Set TRUB

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:40.8, Lake Borgne Daybeacon 7 Destroyed

      LNM: Off AIWW MM:464.7, Cooper River Lighted Buoy 52 Offstation

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:499.3, San Antonio Bay Daybeacon 24 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-West MM:496.5, San Antonio Bay Light 15 Missing

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:160.2, Pensacola-Mobile Daybeacon 90 Extinguished

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:164.5, Pensacola-Mobile Light 68 Extinguished

      LNM: AIWW MM:714.9, Amelia River Lighted Buoy 4 Missing

      LNM: Off GIWW-East MM:104.5, Horn Island Pass Entrance Range Front Light is Dim

      LNM: AIWW MM:330.6, Cape Fear River – Little River Buoy 82 Relocated

      LNM: AIWW MM:227.7, Bogue Inlet Buoy 17 Relocated

      LNM: AIWW MM:25.3, Great Bridge to Albemarle Sound Light 27 Missing

      LNM: GIWW MM:41.3, Lemon Bay Channel Daybeacon 18 Missing Dayboards

      LNM: AIWW MM:329.9, Cape Fear River – Little River Light 78 Extinguished

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:164.5, Pensacola-Mobile Light 68 Damaged

      LNM: AIWW MM:708.6, MSF Range Sensor Daybeacon DR Extinguished

      LNM: AIWW MM:745.9, Pablo Creek Light 27 Extinguished

       

      Week 27/26

      LNM: Off , Poquoson River Light 15 Extinguished

      LNM: AIWW MM:785.3, Matanzas River Daybeacon 38 Destroyed

      LNM: Off GIWW, North Apollo Beach Daybeacon 17 Destroyed

      LNM: Off GIWW, North Apollo Beach Daybeacon 15 Destroyed

      LNM: GIWW-East MM:160.2, Pensacola-Mobile Daybeacon 90 Destroyed

      LNM: Off AIWW MM:572.1, Tybee Knoll Cut Range Lighted Buoy 20 Extinguished

      LNM: Off AIWW MM:583.7, Barnwell Island Flats Lighted Buoy 50 Offstation

      LNM: AIWW MM:776.8, Salt Run Daybeacon 4 Damaged

      LNM: GIWW MM:1.7, Pine Island Sound Daybeacon 5 Missing

      LNM: Off GIWW, Port Manatee Channel Inbound Range Rear Light Extinguished

       

      Week 26/26

      LNM: Off AIWW, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind WTG F10 Extinguished

      LNM: Off WW, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind WTG F09 Extinguished

       

      Week 39/23

      LNM: Alt ICW MM 7, Long Term Deep Creek Bridge Replacement, Dismal Swamp Canal, NC

      For previous Local Notices, go to the Specific State or Region on our Homepage

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    • LTM Additions So Far Today: Today (Thu, Jul 16)

      0 New LTM\’s Added Today. Note this post is updated hourly so check back as the day progresses for the lastest and updated information.

      SELECT LTM Area:

      SELECT Format:
       

      0 ALL Areas LTM\’s Added on 2026-07-16

      ALL Areas List for 2026-07-16 (0 Found)

      No LTM on 2026-07-16

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    • Southeast Marine Fuel Best Prices as of Jul 15

      This week’s lowest current marina fuel prices as of Jul 15
              Diesel Range: $4.40 to $7.05 Lowest @ Wacca Wache Marina in (South Carolina)
              Gas Range: $4.31 to $4.31 Lowest @ Galveston Yacht Marina in (Texas)
      Remember to always call the marina to verify the current price since prices may change at any time. Also please let us know if you find a marina’s fuel price has changed via the Submit News link.

      SELECT Fuel Type:
      SELECT Format:
      Lowest Diesel Price in Each Region

      Fuel Price Report Brought to you by:

      Ft. Pierce City Marina
      Ft. Pierce City Marina specializes in overnight dockage and 22 hour fueling.

      Lowest Diesel Prices Anywhere

      All Regions (Price Range $4.40 to $7.90)

      $4.40 Wacca Wache Marina (07/13)
      $4.45 Dowry Creek Marina (07/13)
      $4.48 Albemarle Plantation Marina (07/14)

      Lowest By Region

      Virginia to North Carolina (Price Range $4.55 to $5.65)

      North Carolina (Price Range $4.45 to $6.60)

      $4.45 Dowry Creek Marina (07/13)
      $4.48 Albemarle Plantation Marina (07/14)
      $4.49 Dudley’s Marina (07/13)

      South Carolina (Price Range $4.40 to $7.05)

      $4.40 Wacca Wache Marina (07/13)
      $4.66 Harborwalk Marina (07/13)
      $4.75 Hazzard Marine (07/13)

      Georgia (Price Range $4.50 to $6.10)

      Eastern Florida (Price Range $4.74 to $6.43)

      $4.74 Anchor Petroleum (07/13)
      $4.81 Fort Pierce City Marina (07/13)
      $4.85 Pelican Yacht Club (07/13)

      St Johns River (Price Range $5.15 to $7.90)

      Florida Keys (Price Range $5.20 to $6.18)

      Western Florida (Price Range $4.39 to $7.10)

      $4.39 Sea Hag Marina (07/13)
      $4.70 A-1 Fuel Service (07/13)
      $4.99 Cape Haze Marina (07/14)

      Okeechobee (Price Range $5.48 to $5.53)

      $5.48 Gulf Harbour Marina (07/13)
      $5.53 Sunset Bay Marina (07/13)

      Northern Gulf (Price Range $4.70 to $5.49)

      Texas (Price Range $4.61 to $4.61)

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    • NHC: TROPICAL STORM CHARTS AND UPDATES

      The National Hurricane Center chart below updates automatically and shows the latest storm positions. Click the chart for the full NHC report. While port conditions are primarily for commercial mariners, they give a strong indication of the Coast Guard’s appraisal of the storm’s severity.

      Categories:
      • Category 1: winds between 74 m.p.h. and 95 m.p.h.
      • Category 2: winds between 96 m.p.h. and 110. m.p.h.
      • Category 3: winds between 111 m.p.h. and 129 m.p.h.
      • Category 4: winds between 130 m.p.h. and 156 m.p.h.
      • Category 5: winds of 157 m.p.h. or greater.
      Hurricane Season Port Condition Definitions 
      
      
      
      

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    • Potential Eastern Gulf Tropical Development – Fred Pickhardt


      Fred Pickhardt’s Substack is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Fred Pickhardt’s Substack that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments.

       
         
       
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      An upper-level low over western Cuba is expected to move northward over the eastern Gulf and Florida over the next several days.

         

      300mb Forecast Friday July 17th

      A weak surface trough or low center could form over the weekend producing heavy rainfall over the eastern Gulf and the west coast of Florida.

         

      5 Day Precipitation Forecast through Monday

      There is a slight (20%) risk that the surface low could develop into a subtropical or tropical depression.

         

      Latest NHC advisories: NOAA NHC

      Ocean Weather Services

      Forensic Marine Weather Expert

       

       

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      © 2026 Fred Pickhardt
      548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104

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    • LTM Additions: Yesterday (Wed, Jul 15)

      6 New LTM\’s Added Yesterday

      SELECT LTM Area:

      SELECT Format:

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    • Back When Dumping a Little Petroleum Was a Righteous Small-Craft Storm Tactic – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.

       
         
       
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      When all else fails, try journalism.


      Back When Dumping a Little Petroleum Was a Righteous Small-Craft Storm Tactic

      ‘Storm Oil’ Isn’t a Thing Anymore, And Not Just Because It’s Illegal

       
       
       
       
       

      READ IN APP

       
         
      Christ in the Storm on the Sea of Galilee is a 1633 oil-on-canvas painting by the Dutch Golden Age painter Rembrandt. It was based a description of the Gospel of Mark about how Christ calmed the water. A rational thinker might surmise that Jesus—the only calm guy on the boat—had applied the old sailors’ trick of using “storm oil,” which helps prevent waves like this one from breaking. One scholar has suggested oil may also have played a role in preserving the vessel that ran into foul weather while carrying St. Paul to Rome.

      This story first appeared on July 26, 2023.


      While writing a story recently about a harbor plagued by petroleum spills, I was reminded of being a kid and reading about mariners using oil to help survive offshore storms. It was the 1960s, so the magazine might have been in Yachting before it transmogrified into the sop to millionaires it is today.

      “Storm oil,” they called it, and it could be deployed upwind in a container attached, for example, to a sea anchor, where it slowly released its contents. Like nutmeg on butternut squash, storm oil was effective even when applied in tiny amounts.

      And, as the photo above was meant to suggest, the technique has been used since biblical times. As recreational boating was trending upward in the last century, boating magazines were launched to serve the new market, and one service to readers was to pass along wisdom of professional mariners.

      One early magazine account of storm oil appeared in this issue of Motor Boating, known for it’s stunning cover art:

         

      This “heavy weather edition” of the June 1912 magazine credited the Phonecians with first use of storm oil: Sailors from the ancient Middle Eastern nation had observed “that after passing through the wake of whales, oil exuding from their bodies left a perfectly calm spot” (presumably referring to the bodies of the whales, not the sailors).

      The following bits of wisdom were contributed to Motor Boating by E.A. Crawford of Newark, N.J.:

      As soon as the oil spreads on the surface of the water, it places a film over it, which effectually prevents the waves from coaming and breaking. Of course, it has no effect on the swell.

      Three bags should be sufficient for a boat as they may be constructed in any manner desired, although the usual shape is cylindrical about six inches in diameter, of two or more thicknesses of heavy canvas. Stuff with oakum and punch full of holes at least a quarter of an inch in diameter to allow the oil to leak out, which is easily done with a marlin spike.

      These holes also admit the water, so it can facilitate the oil leakage and make it more uniform. Saturate the oakum with lard oil, if obtainable, as experiments tend to favor it to all others. Still most any oil will serve in an emergency, although mineral oil, having little fatty matter will not produce as good result as vegetable oil, while lard oil being composed entirely of fat is most effective…

      If riding to a sea anchor, bend them to the cable, so it will be several fathoms ahead of the boat. Running before the wind, tow one from each bow, using enough line on them so they will always be in the water. At anchor, make one fast to the cable several lengths ahead of the boat, allowing sufficient line so it will float freely.

      Cone Can in a Sea Anchor

         
      Lifeboats were required to carry them until 1998. Originally, fish oil was the preferred medium, and it was the cheapest. Wave-quelling oil could also be used when launching or recovering ship’s boats or embarking or disembarking a pilot.

      Attached to a Kellet

         
      This illustration is from the June 1943 issue of Motor Boating. “Kellet” in the headline is a somewhat obscure term for a weight attached to an anchor rode.

      Storm Oil Bags

      The middle one, from an online market site, was labeled “no longer available.” The other two are in museums. (Click on an image to enlarge it.)

      The final reference to storm oil that I could find in MotorBoating (the name had become one word) was a 1978 story about a 70-foot sailing vessel lying ahull. She was apparently surfing down massive waves and outrunning the slick until her crew began towing warps to slow the boat down enough to enjoy the effects of the oil.

      Benjamin Franklin

      There he goes again. Research a topic long enough, and sooner or later Benjamin Franklin is going to pop up. It wasn’t enough that he invented lightning rods, swim fins and bifocals, that he was first to chart the Gulf Stream, but it was Franklin that first confirmed scientifically the efficacy of storm oil.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

      Sailing to England in the 1860s, Franklin observed that the greasy galley discharge from a nearby ship smoothed its wake. After arriving he conducted experiments at a British lake, which he summarized in a report on “Stilling the waves,” writing:

      “Not more than a tea spoonful produced an instant calm, over a space several yards square, which spread amazingly, and extended itself gradually till it reached the lee side, making all that quarter of the pond, perhaps half an acre, as smooth as a looking glass.”

      This YouTube guy replicated Franklin’s approach and gives a pretty good explanation of the science involved. He even used olive oil, as likely had the early Phonecian practicioners.

      Ben Franklin Correspondence on Stilling …
      2.7MB ∙ PDF file
      Download

      The Federal Water Pollution Control Act was enacted in 1948, but rewritten in 1972 and amended twice since. For boaters, one result was the placard below, which we are all required to display on vessels 26 feet and over with an enclosed engine compartment.

         

      But what if a vessel is outside U.S. waters entirely? Todd Lochner, an admiralty lawyer in Annapolis, was asked whether restrictions on releasing oil follow us onto international waters, which is where we are most likely to have to ride out a storm.

      The short version is that there are laws which are applicable to both U.S. territorial waters, and generally speaking, there are laws which will follow the flag state of the vessel. Let’s not forget that there are certain treaties like UNCLOS¹ which will apply, particularly if the flag state is a signatory as well. As usual, clear as mud with a lawyer response that I need more information and factual scenario, etc. etc.

      As late as 1991, “Chapman Piloting & Seamanship & Small Boat Handling” was still informing readers of the benefits of oil in the storm but with a disclaimer about it’s dubious legality. In 1999, the first edition of “Surviving the Storm: Coastal & Offshore Tactics” by Steve and Linda Dashew only mentions storm oil a few times in passing.

      No matter, I think. If given a choice between adding a couple quarts of Rotella T to the Atlantic and death by drowning, most of us would probably choose the former. The law and politically correctness may be why none of our written authorities are touting oil as a solution nowadays, but the real reason for its disuse is this: We now have tools to avoid being caught in storms, which did not exist before the 1990s, let alone 1912.

      Better Forecasts

      Ocean-crossers like the Dashews are a rare breed. Many of us haven’t done anything riskier than an overnighter. Most offshore passages are limited in duration to four, maybe five or six days. Think “I-65,” the route from New England to the Caribbean via Bermuda.

      Weather forecasting for a four-day window is actually pretty damn accurate nowdays, and, since the new Millenium, the electronic means for receiving such forecasts have proliferated, the latest and greatest being Starlink. We’re not getting surprised like we used to.

      Think of this way: The conditions for using storm oil and a sea anchor are pretty much the same, as suggested by one of the illustrations above. Yet the sea anchor has become like a vestigial tail. Many of us still carry one, but most of us who do, have never used it.

      If you’ve deployed a sea anchor in actual storm conditions, please share the story with us below. Do you think oil would have helped?

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

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    • Fishermen’s Village Back to School Bash, July 25 10am – Fishermen’s Village, Punta Gorda, FL


      Fisherman's Village Marina and Resort, Punta Gorda, FL

      There is always plenty to do around Charlotte Harbor. While berthed at Fishermen’s Village Marina, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, you are certain to enjoy visiting Western Florida’s beautiful Charlotte Harbor/Peace River.

      Kathy Burnam
      Special Events & Community Relations

      941.639.8721

      kburnam@fishermensvillage.com

      www.fishermensvillage.com

      Click Here To View the Western Florida Cruisers Net Marina Directory Listing For Fishermen’s Village

      Click Here To Open A Chart View Window Zoomed To the Location of Fishermen’s Village

       

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    • Summer’s Sweetest Week Starts Here – Elizabeth City


      Elizabeth City sits at the southern terminus of the Dismal Swamp Canal and has the well-earned reputation of being a transient-friendly town with free dockage for 72 hours.

      https://visitelizabethcity.com/


      Newsletter icons created by Freepik – Flaticon

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    • How Bad will El Nino be? – Fred Pickhardt


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      How Bad will El Nino be?

      US and European ENSO models differ significantly

       
       
       
       
       

      READ IN APP

       

      Both the US CFSv2 and the ECMWF ENSO models agree that this El Niño is strengthening rapidly and will likely be a strong-to-very-strong event peaking in fall/winter 2026.

      The ECMWF is forecasting a peak relative Niño 3.4 anomaly of roughly 3.0–3.7°C, while CFSv2 peaks around 2.0–2.2°C. That’s nearly a full degree difference at the high end, with both models using the same relative index framework. The CFSv2 projection shows signs of a waning El Niño by early 2027, while ECMWF holds near peak conditions. If we average the two models you get a peak of about 2.7 C which would be a very strong El Nino indeed.

         

       

         
      Putting this in historical context using RONI:

      Since February 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has used the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) as its official ENSO metric, replacing the traditional ONI. RONI subtracts the tropical-mean SST anomaly from the Niño 3.4 value and applies a scaling factor, stripping out background warming to isolate true El Niño intensity. The three strongest events in the instrumental record (1950–present):

        

      No event in the historical record has exceeded 2.5°C RONI. ECMWF’s plume implies a serious chance of shattering that ceiling by 0.5–1.2°C, which would be genuinely unprecedented. Even CFSv2’s more conservative projection would place this event among the top three on record, approaching the 1982-83 peak.

      The 2015-16 event for comparison:

      The 2015-16 El Niño crossed 1.0°C RONI in June 2015 and accelerated through fall: JAS 1.6 → ASO 1.9 → SON 2.2 → OND 2.3 → NDJ 2.4 (peak). Decay was swift, dropping below zero by May 2016 and plunging into strong La Niña (−1.1°C) by fall.

      The 1982-83 event followed a nearly identical trajectory, peaking at 2.5°C in NDJ–DJF before collapsing into La Niña by late 1983.

      Notably, the traditional ONI ranking of these events is different: 2015-16 led at 2.6°C, followed by 1997-98 at 2.3°C, and 1982-83 at 2.2°C. RONI reverses that order, revealing that much of 2015-16’s apparent record strength was inflated by background tropical warming rather than El Niño dynamics alone.

      What to watch:

      As we move into late summer, the rate of intensification will tell us which model is closer to reality. If we’re tracking toward ECMWF’s upper range, this will be an event unlike anything in the modern record. If CFSv2 is right, it’s still a major El Niño with significant global weather impacts, but not the record-breaker ECMWF suggests.

      Ocean Weather Services

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    • American Tug Buyers Go to Police with Fraud Claims after Kadey-Krogen Bankruptcy – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.

       
       

         
       
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      American Tug Buyers Go to Police with Fraud Claims after Kadey-Krogen Bankruptcy

      Ex-Detective and Wife Seek Halt to Liquidation Proceedings

       
       
       
       
       

      READ IN APP

       
         
      This is the model of American Tug—the 365—that was being built for Joe and Tana Ganete when the company filed for bankruptcy

      According to the American Tug bankrupcy petition, four vessels are in various stages of completion at the La Conner, Washington factory. The buyers of one of those boats last week filed a criminal complaint alleging the company CEO had defrauded them in the run-up to insolvency.

      Joe and Tana Ganete of Gig Harbor, Washington, went to the Sagit County Sheriff’s Department with a timeline and a list of allegations and supporting documents. They say the department has opened a case file (No. 26-07957) and assigned an investigator to look into it.

      Joe Ganete, who was a detective for 18 years before founding a company that provides services to law enforcement, said the charges might include theft by deception, exploitation of elders and financial crimes across state lines. Ganete named Kadey-Krogen and American Tug CEO Tucker West as the person most culpable.

      Ganete said an investigation might well show that funds from American Tug were diverted to prop up Kadey-Krogen as its revenues declined, though it is not clear whether that, by itself, would be illegal.

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      Krogen acquired American Tug in May 2023. West filed Chapter 7 bankrupcy petitions for both companies last Monday. Unlike Chapter 11, which allows a company to reorganize and stay in business, Chapter 7 takes it directly to liquidation. That is, all assets are sold with proceeds going to creditors.

      Attempts via text and email were made yesterday to reach Tucker West for his side of the story. There was no response, but if West eventually does reply, Loose Cannon will include his comments as a follow-up story.

      According to the bankruptcy documents, the Ganete’s American Tug 365 is 85 percent complete and 85 percent paid for. Other buyers with unfinished boats at the factory are: Keith Asplundh of Palm Beach, 70 percent complete and paid for; Jeff and Susan Parker of Harrison, Tennessee, 35 percent complete and paid for, and Benjamin and Christine Saitz of Seattle, 25 percent complete and paid for.

      Ganete said the bankruptcy court will treat the buyers as “unsecured creditors.” He said the other buyers have expressed interest in contributing to any criminal case as supporting witnesses. Ganete hopes the criminal investigation will prompt the bankruptcy judge to pause any liquidation of American Tug assets.

      Ganete said different buyers had different contracts with American Tug, some of which presumably included regular payments at various construction milestones. Ganete’s was different: He and his wife paid 90 percent down—$700,000—with the remainder due at delivery. In exchange, Ganete said, American Tug discounted the price by several tens of thousands of dollars.

      The Ganete’s contract also stipulated that the boat had to be delivered by a specific date or the $700,000 would be refunded to them. There were unexplained delays during construction, and American Tug failed to meet the deadline, Ganete said.

      He said that when he raised the issue of a refund with West, he was told there was no money available for that purpose. “He defaulted on the contract at that point already,” Ganete said. “He’s already telling me he’s defaulting, and he can’t fulfill the contract.”

      According to Ganete, West suggested they meet at the factory, so they agreed to get together on July 9. The petitions for liquidation were filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware on July 6. Ganete said he was never notified that their meeting was off.

      “This is devastating. People had hopes and aspirations and plans, and, you know, no matter what walk of life you come from, whether you’re rich or poor, it hurts when you lose that much money,” he said.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

       

       

       

       

       

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    • How a Tiny Caribbean Island Made American Independence Possible – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.

       

         
       
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      When all else fails, try journalism.


         
      On Nov. 16, 1776, the Andrew Doria, coming from the fledgling United States, was acknowledged with the firing of a cannon from St. Eustatius. This event is now known as the ‘First Salute.’ Painting by Phillips Melville, USMC (Retired) via Wikimedia Commons

      The author is director of Historic Preservation and Community Planning Program at the College of Charleston. This story first appeared in The Conversation on July 1, 2026 and is reprinted here with permission.


      By R. GRANT GILMORE III

      The American Revolution is often told as a heroic story of 13 colonies rising up against a mighty empire and, with some help from France, winning their independence.

      But the real story is more complicated. As the United States approaches the 250th anniversary of its independence, it is worth remembering that success on the battlefield depended not only on courage and ideals, but also on trade, credit, shipping and access to military supplies.

      The center of that trade was not the 13 Colonies – but south of Loyalist Florida, in the greater Caribbean. Here developed the center of the Atlantic economy due to the insatiable appetite for sugar that had grown across Europe by the late 1700s. The economic output of just Jamaica was the same as the entire 13 Colonies. The Caribbean economies depended on slave labor, trade and supplies from around the world to make sure the sugar flowed freely and tax revenues to European colonial powers were maximized. Much of that support flowed through a small Dutch island in the eastern Caribbean that few Americans know today: St. Eustatius.

      Small but Mighty

      I’m a historical archaeologist, and for eight years earlier in my career, I lived on St. Eustatius and served as island archaeologist and founding director of the St. Eustatius Center for Archaeological Research.

      Barely 8 square miles (about 21 square kilometers) in size, St. Eustatius – or as residents call it, Statia – sits to the northwest of St. Kitts and Nevis. Without this tiny island, the Continental Army might have found itself without the arms, gunpowder and the supplies it needed to survive.

      Statia Facts for Sailors from Noonsite

         

      Statia’s importance began with geography. The island rises steeply from the blue waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean. Its dormant volcano, known as the Quill, dominates the southern part of the island.

      Unlike taller Caribbean islands, Statia did not receive enough rainfall to make it especially attractive for large-scale sugar production. That made it less valuable to the great sugar powers of the 18th century, especially Britain and France.

      What Statia lacked in plantation potential, it made up for as a port. Oranje Bay, on the western side of the island, offered one of the deepest and safest nearshore anchorages in the Americas. Large merchant ships could come close to shore, unload their cargo and reload quickly.

      Along the bay stood a long, busy waterfront, lined with warehouses, shops and trading houses. By the mid-18th century, this narrow strip of shoreline had become one of the most important commercial centers in the Atlantic world.

      Imperialism Through Trade

      The Dutch had settled St. Eustatius in the 1630s, around the same time they were developing New Amsterdam, now New York City. Dutch merchants, families and investors moved through a wide Atlantic network that connected Europe, Africa, the Caribbean and North America. These commercial ties created trust, credit and opportunity across long distances.

      In the 17th and 18th centuries, European empires tried to control colonial trade through mercantilism. Colonies were expected to enrich the mother country by supplying raw materials and buying finished goods through approved channels. Taxes, tariffs and trade restrictions benefited imperial governments and favored merchants, but they raised costs for ordinary colonists, shopkeepers and planters.

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      British colonists in North America often resented these restrictions, but Dutch traders were willing to help them get around them. For generations, Dutch vessels carried goods throughout the Atlantic, often selling items at lower prices than British merchants could offer legally.

      Archaeological evidence from sites such as Pope’s Creek Plantation in Virginia, the Washington family home, shows the presence of Dutch ceramics, clay pipes and yellow bricks. Even before the Revolution, Dutch trade was woven into colonial life.

      ‘Emporium of the World’

      In 1754, the Dutch West India Company petitioned the Dutch government to make Oranjestad, the capital of St. Eustatius, a free port, and the request was granted. The result was extraordinary: Goods could move through the island with few restrictions and without the heavy taxes common elsewhere. The government profited from leases on land, warehouses and homes rather than from taxing every cargo.

      Merchants from across the Atlantic world quickly took advantage. Ships arrived carrying textiles, tools, foodstuffs, weapons, luxury goods and raw materials. They also carried captive African people, forcibly transported within the transatlantic slave trade and subjected to sale, detention, labor and violence. Enslaved Africans and their descendants were essential not only to the island’s plantations, but also to the households, waterfronts, warehouses and commercial networks that made this trade possible.

      St. Eustatius became, in the words often associated with the island, “the emporium of the world.” In modern terms, it functioned like an Amazon fulfillment center for the 18th-century Atlantic. Its prosperity, however, rested in significant part on slavery and on the unequal power that enabled imperial commerce to flourish.

      Adam Smith, often called the father of economics or the father of capitalism, noticed. In his 1776 book, “The Wealth of Nations,” Smith helped define economics as a modern field of study. Although he never visited St. Eustatius, Smith discusses the island, as it offered him a living example of what freer trade could produce: prosperity, speed, variety and commercial energy.

      The same system that made the island rich also made it dangerous to imperial powers. Britain and France depended on controlled colonial trade, but St. Eustatius showed what could happen when goods moved with fewer restrictions. It also showed how merchants, credit networks and shipping families could challenge empires without firing a shot.

        a fort surrounded by palm trees and shrubs  
      Fort Oranje, from which the ‘First Salute’ was fired, still stands today. SV Zanshin via Wikimedia CommonsCC BY-NC-SA

      When the American colonies declared independence in 1776, they desperately needed military supplies. The Continental Congress knew that ideals alone would not defeat Britain. The new United States needed muskets, cannons, ammunition, uniforms, cloth, food and credit.

      St. Eustatius was perfectly positioned to provide them.

      The island’s merchants had long-standing connections with North America, and some of the American founders knew these networks well. Alexander Hamilton, who grew up in the Caribbean, spent his youth in the commercial world of shipping, accounts and credit. His family had ties to the region, and the Caribbean trade helped shape his understanding of finance and power.

      St. Eustatius soon became a lifeline for the Revolution. American agents used the island to buy and ship supplies. Cargoes moved from Europe to Statia and then onward to North America. Arms and gunpowder that might have been impossible to obtain through official channels could be purchased through this Dutch free port.

      The First Salute

      Then, in November 1776, a small but historic event took place in Oranje Bay. The Continental brigantine Andrew Doria arrived carrying a copy of the Declaration of Independence and flying the Continental Colors – the predecessor of the stars and stripes. Following maritime custom, the American vessel fired a salute. Fort Oranje answered with its own guns.

      This exchange became known as the First Salute. Many historians regard it as the first formal recognition of American independence by a foreign power. The gesture was brief, but its meaning was enormous. By returning the salute, St. Eustatius publicly acknowledged the flag and authority of the new United States.

      Britain understood the significance. The island was not merely a trading post; it was helping sustain rebellion. Over the next several years, much of the gunpowder, shot, cloth and other material that kept the American war effort alive passed through Statia’s warehouses and harbor.

      The story of St. Eustatius serves as a reminder that revolutions are not won by ideas alone. The American Revolution depended on farmers, soldiers, diplomats and political thinkers, but it also depended on merchants, sailors, warehouses and credit.

      Without St. Eustatius, without Dutch trade and without access to a free port in the Caribbean, the United States might not have survived long enough to celebrate any anniversary at all. The Revolution was a struggle for political independence, but it was also a struggle over who controlled trade. In that struggle, one tiny island helped change the course of world history.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

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    • Out with the Seaquarium, in with the mega yachts? SunSentinel


      https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/12/out-with-the-seaquarium-in-with-the-mega-yachts-a-new-plan-for-the-old-marine-park/

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