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Weather Alert  –  October 8, 2025

Weekend Coastal Storm

Hey, y’all. I wanted to pass along a few words about the coastal storm that will have some effects on our coastal areas this weekend. Overall, it will be a relatively low-impact event for South Carolina, assuming the storm behaves as currently forecast, except for moderate to major coastal flooding at high tide for the next few days.

This storm will be a non-tropical entity that acts like a tropical storm in some ways. We’ll get some rain (which will be mostly beneficial as we remain abnormally dry or in drought), gusty winds, and the aforementioned tidal flooding. 

This loop of weather maps from the Weather Prediction Center shows the expected progression of this weekend’s storm off the East Coast.

The extent of the wind for this weekend will depend on the storm track. Computer models are in good agreement that the storm will stay far enough offshore of South Carolina that damaging winds remain over the water. It will get windy along the Coastal Plain with peak gusts of 30-35 mph. A closer storm track would mean stronger winds, but that looks unlikely.

Rain from the storm will remain confined to the Coastal Plain unless the storm tracks further west than expected. The coastal Lowcountry could see an inch or so of rain locally through this weekend. Areas further up the coast will see the heaviest rainfall, with 2-4 inches likely over much of the Pee Dee and locally higher amounts near the Grand Strand. That can lead to localized flooding, but that area will primarily benefit from the soaking due to the ongoing drought.

For coastal areas, the primary impact will be coastal flooding. We’re just past a full moon, so the astronomical tides will be high, and the storm will push the water levels even higher. 

Here’s the National Weather Service’s forecast for tide levels at Charleston Harbor over the next few days, major flooding is in the forecast for late morning and midday Thursday and Friday. More tidal flooding is likely this weekend.

Tidal flooding will be a problem along our entire coast, but the Lowcountry is most vulnerable, especially the Charleston area. We can expect flooded roads at high tide and road closures in the area in the coming days. Additionally, as the surf becomes rough this weekend, we can expect to see some overwash and beach erosion. 

Of course, our coastal waters will become rough. That will start Thursday in the wake of a cold front that’s pushing into South Carolina today and will remain rough through the weekend. Mariners have a Small Craft Advisory to consider for Thursday, with possible gales from Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

In addition to our Storm With No Name (c’mon, Weird Al, make that happen), there’s also newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry over the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. 

As y’all can see from the graphic above from the National Hurricane Center, Jerry will stay far away from South Carolina. However, they are calling for it to become a hurricane by Friday morning, and if it becomes strong enough, it will send ocean swells our way, keeping our coastal waters hazardous again and the surf rough at our beaches for the first part of next week.

As always, stay prepared. The hurricane season continues through the end of November. If you need help with storm prep, hurricane.sc is the place to go.

Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office