Get Ready for a Rougher Ride in the Bahamas This Winter

El Niño Diminishes Hurricane Risk But Promotes ‘Northers’

Crown Weather Services Jun 14   ∙   Guest post

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Rob Lightbown founded Crown Weather Services in 1994 to provide personalized weather forecasting and has tracked tropical storms and hurricanes for customers ever since. On Thursday, NOAA announced that the El Niño weather phenomenon had formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

A very strong El Niño is going to disrupt the atmosphere for the next several months. This weather phenomenon will shape winter conditions across the Bahamas, likely making cruising there a somewhat more stressful undertaking. Foreign sailors may find themselves more likely to have to alter plans because of severe weather than during previous visits.

Yes, El Niño winters can be particularly harsh across the Bahamas. This is due to the development of a particularly strong sub-tropical jet stream that often leads to a very active storm track that moves near or just north of the Northern Bahamas.

This active storm track during winter months leads to frequent bouts of significant severe weather, heavy rain and frequent squalls across the Central and Northern Bahamas. El Niño winters are wet, cool and very stormy across the central and northern Bahamas. For the Southern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos, bouts of gusty winds with swells will occur during the winter as strong fronts pass by just to the north.

Best Bahamas Weather Happens After Most Cruisers Leave Peter Swanson   ·   1:39 PM Read full story

All of this will lead to frequent unfavorable conditions for cruising across much of the Bahamas due to frequent frontal passages and an overall stormy winter. Cruisers may be need to find protective shelter from the weather for longer than usual—sometimes for several days at a time. Competition among cruisers will likely be strong for those spots with all-around protection from clocking winds.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a global phenomenon that’s centered in the central and eastern Pacific when the ocean water temperatures become much warmer than average. This phenomenon oftentimes leads to a large disruption to the weather patterns across the globe.

The El Niño that we are currently moving in is expected to be one of, if not the strongest on record. El Niño conditions usually peak in the late fall and winter months. I want to point out that the previous strongest El Niños on record were in 1997 and 1982, and I do think that we will surpass both of those in terms of the amount of heat that’ll be present in the eastern and central Pacific.

What About the 2026 Hurricane Season?

The rapid transition into El Niño conditions is likely to lead to much lower-than-average activity in the Atlantic Basin this hurricane season. The abnormally warm waters in the tropical eastern Pacific during a strong El Niño will increase the amount of wind shear over the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. High degrees of windshear can lead to tropical systems that are unable to organize and develop into tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic.

Back in late March, I issued our annual hurricane season forecast, in which I forecasted 11 named storms, five of those storms becoming hurricanes and two of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes due to the expectation of strong El Niño conditions. I still think that this forecast is still valid due to the expectation of the strong El Niño conditions.

While it is expected to be “quiet” in terms of the number of storms, it does not mean that there won’t be a impactful tropical storm or hurricane this season. In fact, a number of the past strong El Niño years did bear a impactful tropical storm or hurricane. They include 1957’s Hurricane Audrey, 1965’s Hurricane Betsy, 1997’s Hurricane Danny and 2015’s Hurricane Joaquin.

There are a few areas of concern this hurricane season that we should be aware of.

While the strong El Niño conditions will probably shut down hurricanes in the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, it can lead to lower than average wind shear conditions north of 20 North Latitude. Because of this, it’s possible that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamaa, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda.

Another area that I have some concerns with in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the U.S. Gulf Coast and especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason why I think this is that I can foresee a scenario in which any westward traveling tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean wait to develop until they reach the Southern and Central Gulf.

Across the rest of the U.S. South—as in the Bahamas—El Nino winters are very often stormy. We can expect a pattern in which winter weather extends quite far into the the south, including heavy rain and frequent squalls. Ice and snowy conditions could happen as far south as the Gulf coast.

Sharked! The Emasculation of America’s Predator Class

Rugged Individuals Pin Hopes on a Government Committee

Peter Swanson Jun 18

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Florida fishermen are frustrated. Despite deploying hundreds of thousands of dollars in motors, molded fiberglass, fuel, rods, reels and YETI coolers, this benighted cohort is being outwitted by creatures with brains the size of a walnut.

Sharks are eating their lunch…literally. Dinner, too. Pretty soon these brash bulls will be (flirting with) their wives.

How it happens: Having hooked a fish, the angler begins the process of reeling in his catch. He is fighting the fish, and the fish is fighting back. The line is taut. Then, suddenly it’s not. Reeling becomes easy-peasy, and the reason why is that a shark has bitten off as much of the aft portion of the fish as it could. Tailess, the fish has lost its purchase, and, besides, it’s dead.

This is not a new phenomenon. What is new: The frequency. Sharks are back, baybee! They’re practicing a little angler predation in the morning, then nipping New Smyrna Beach-goers in the afternoon. Even President Trump has noticed.¹

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This state of affairs has caused great sadness among fishermen. The collective gnashing of teeth was evident on Facebook. These poor guys are hurting.

“Yeah, nothing like blowing $500 in fuel catching a shitload of fish and losing them to sharks. Definitely sucks,” Philip Punch wrote.

“Absolutely the worst,” Thomas Botwinski lamented. “I lost six consecutive nice yellowtail hookups last trip.”

“This is the worse it has ever been in 50 years of fishing. EVERYWHERE, the sharks are trained now to run to boats for an easy meal, and, to the point, it’s impossible to fish,” sniffled Bob Hubbard.

Referred to collectively as “The Taxman,” the culprits are usually bull sharks or sandbar sharks (with hammerheads pitching in against the tarpon crowd). A 2022 survey found that 77 percent of recreational anglers and charter guides had experienced shark depredation.

The cull-the-herd proponents want to eliminate the problem by either “harvesting” the offenders and grilling the steaks out of them or via 12-gauge deer slugs. (Alas, they complain, sandbar sharks are a federally protected species.)

Here’s some pertinent scientific-sounding talk:

Bull sharks are highly adaptable predators that use sounds, vibrations and electrical signals to track struggling or injured prey. Reeling in a hooked fish mimics an easy meal, conditioning bull sharks to associate fishing boats and struggling fish with a quick feeding opportunity.

Yeah, I don’t think anyone has proven that a bullshark needs the presence of a boat to find his next meal, but here, enjoy some more science gobbledegook, this time sneering at the highly unadaptable “fishers” (not fishermen, not anymore), whose identities are being threatened:

Underlying and deeply rooted conflicts around poor perceptions of management legitimacy and threatened fisher identities add complexity to the fisher–shark conflict, and call for broader interventions beyond these visible effects.

Enter U.S. Senator Rick Scott of Florida, who has been compared to Voldermort for both his looks and larcenous bent. In July 2025, he and Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii introduced the SHARKED Act, which would establish a task force to solve the depradation problem. The bill has passed the House and now awaits a final floor vote in the U.S. Senate.

The bill’s announcement noted the fisherman frustration, federal regulators’ lack of empathy and a most sincere concern about the possible harm that could come to the feasting shark population. Quoth the press release (emphasis added):

Hooked fish being landed by anglers or commercial fishermen creates an unnatural and easy meal for sharks and exposes them to potentially harmful fishing gear. As the rate of shark depredation has increased, fishermen have become increasingly frustrated by the issue and a continued lack of response from the fisheries management community.

Maybe, the fisheries management community is unsympathetic because overall shark populations continue to be way down from historical norms, and even though there may be a comeback in places such as Florida, it’s only a partial comeback. Plus, complaining about sharks doing shark things is a bit like calling the police because some goshdarn woodpecker won’t let you sleep late on Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, the fish-killing crowd is lashing out. It’s directing its frustration against the ecotourism activity of “shark diving,” another somewhat silly passtime (think bungee-jumping) that supports it’s own little Florida industry. Two Florida congressmen introduced the Florida Safe Seas Act, which is also pending in the Senate.

This legislation would outlaw feeding sharks in federal waters off Florida, feeding being a necessary precursor to attracting sharks to a central location where they can be observed by divers paying $250 each for the experience. Florida has already outlawed the practice in state waters.

Again, the theory (which is treated as fact) is that chumming for Jaws by a handful of small operators is somehow teaching these beasts to associate boats with food on a species-wide level. This too is just one more big maybe.

The only real hope is that the Task Force might come up with some tech solution that allows boaters to somehow jam a shark’s onboard fish-detection sensors. Either that, or maybe we just fall back on the solution du jour for a whole host of today’s thorny issues—drones. There must be a way to use drones here, no?

Otherwise, maybe we do nothing. After all, we are talking about an expensive hobby, not some existential threat. You can keep fishing on nature’s terms or take up golf. (Your wife isn’t really hooking up with Bill the Bull, is she?)

What was it that one unsympathetic commenter said, responding to that Facebook conversation about shark predation?

“Unless you have grown gills and fins, you’re the problem not the sharks. Almost no one gets attacked by a shark sitting in the bar or at the mall, and I’ve never had one steal fish from me at Publix,” Tony Spagna said.