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Upper level low pressure across Florida and the far eastern Gulf now extends into the lower atmosphere, and a weak surface low.
300 mb wind
This system has been designated a tropical disturbance (Invest AL91) by NOAA NHC. There is now a 40% chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone over the next 3-7 days as it moves slowly northward.
NOAA Satellite Image
Disorganized thunderstorms, strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning are occuring between 83W–84W and across the Florida Gulf Coast, mainly associated with an upper-level low. An Air Force reconnaissance flight scheduled for Sunday, July 19 to investigate the system.
Watching the Gulf, More Severe Thunderstorms Possible
Weather Alert – July 17, 2026
Watching the Gulf
Finally, we again have some signs of life in the Atlantic tropics. There are two areas of interest out there today. One is close to home, and the other is way out there over the eastern Atlantic.
Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC’s) Seven Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from Friday afternoon.
Our primary concern is a blob of thunderstorms that has erupted over the far western Gulf over the last 24 hours, associated with an upper-level low over the area. The area could (NHC gives it a 20 percent chance) evolve into a tropical cyclone as it wanders around the northeastern Gulf. Whether or not it becomes a tropical depression or storm, the most likely track will be over Florida and near the East Coast. The impacts will depend on the track and how strong of a feature it becomes, both of which are very uncertain right now. It could remain too far offshore to affect us, a disorganized plume of moisture that contributes to rain along our Coastal Plain early next week (ideal because we need the rain) or a tropical depression or weak tropical storm that brings our coastal areas heavy rain, gusty winds, a small storm surge along with a risk for isolated tornadoes. Another alternate scenario some of the computer models show is that it drifts westward instead and becomes more of a concern for the central Gulf Coast than for us. This feature will definitely have our attention over the weekend; if it will affect us, that will happen Monday night through Tuesday night.
The loop of visible satellite imagery above shows several features of interest across the North Atlantic and eastern U. S.:
Thunderstorms are clustering around a developing low-pressure area over the northeastern Gulf.
Low pressure along a tropical wave is centered near Cabo Verde and moving northeastward.
A tropical wave is near 45° west, drifting westward slowly.
Bands of smoke from large wildfires west of Hudson Bay can be seen from Michigan and Ohio through the Mid-Atlantic region and over the Atlantic north and northeast of Bermuda.
The other area of concern is over the eastern Atlantic, where a weak low-pressure area has formed along a tropical wave that recently emerged from Africa. It looks decent on satellite imagery with a swirl of clouds and some associated thunderstorms. However, it’s moving northwestward toward dry and stable air. So, it’s a long shot (10 percent chance, according to NHC) to become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm while causing squally weather in Cabo Verde this weekend. After that, it likely remains a weak feature as it moves toward the central North Atlantic. It looks, to borrow a phrase from my favorite author, mostly harmless.
There are no other features of interest over the Atlantic today. A tropical wave is near 45° west over the middle of the tropical Atlantic, but it is very weak and unlikely to raise any ruckus in the coming days as it drifts westward.
Since there’s a small chance we’ll have to deal with a tropical storm next week, you’ll want to use the weekend to make sure your hurricane kits are properly stocked. As always, hurricane.sc is the place to go for prep advice.
More Severe Thunderstorms Possible
Another weekend, another cold front: our late week heat will ease through Sunday as another cold front moves in. We’ll see sparse coverage of routine afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, though keep in mind that sometimes our summertime storms become severe with isolated damaging wind. The Upstate has the best chance to see a severe storm.
By Sunday, the approaching cold front will be over our tomato-and-vinegar-loving northern neighbors, which will increase afternoon thunderstorm coverage over the northern half of our state and increase the severe storm risk in that area. Locally damaging winds will be the primary concern with the storms.
Here’s the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook for South Carolina, covering Sunday and Sunday night.
The front will become stationary and start to decay over us on Monday, so look for widespread showers and thunderstorms that could start to pop up before midday. Once again, a locally severe storm is possible. It will be the least hot day of the next few with highs only in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Tuesday brings us less widespread thunderstorms and more heat; highs will be 90-95° across the state. However, the feature in the Gulf is the wild card for the day, as we’ll feel its impacts Monday night through Tuesday night if it tracks toward us. Our coastal areas are most likely to see it cooler and wetter; again, low-end wind, surge, rain and tornado risk is the worst-case scenario near our coast if the feature becomes a tropical cyclone.
On Wednesday, we have better-than-usual agreement among the computer models that another cold front will move in. The front is likely to bring showers and thunderstorms, and there is a chance of severe storms again if it moves through during the afternoon and evening.
We have a chance of unusually pleasant weather for at least part of the state later next week, as the weather pattern then will favor the cold front pushing much farther south than we typically see in July. Computer models tell us the front will stall to our south and east Thursday into Friday, allowing a drier air mass to move in with temperatures running near or slightly below average. 90° with low humidity is a pretty good deal for us in late July, so I’ll be rooting for that. However, climatology isn’t on our side, so don’t be surprised if the front stalls farther north and west than the models indicate, resulting in at least part of the state seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Of course, with most of the state still in a drought, more rain chances are a good deal, too.
On the satellite loop above, you’ll see areas of smoke from wildfires in Canada streaming by to our north. Some of it is sneaking into the Pee Dee; you may notice some haziness that way this afternoon. The smoke will mostly remain north of us through the weekend but it may shift southward toward us next week, especially later in the week.
Speaking of drought, if you have ever wondered how we define drought and its severity, I can tell you about an opportunity to learn more. The National Drought Mitigation Center (located at the University of Nebraska) will hold an online workshop to explain how the U.S. Drought Monitor works. If you’re interested, you can read more and sign up here: NDMC’s U. S. Drought Monitor 101 signup. The workshop will be held on August 13, from 3-4 p.m. Eastern Time.
Frank Strait Severe Weather Liaison S.C. State Climate Office
South Carolina Department of Natural Resources 260 D. Epting Lane West Columbia, SC, 29172
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No, the Marine Trader that sank off Alcatraz was not overloaded with people. According to our go-to-expert on marine disasters, the 50-footer had almost surely been sinking long before anyone noticed. Then, at the critical point, she went under too quickly for anyone to make a Mayday call.
Of 20 on board, three people were lost in Tuesday’s sinking, plus a dog. Volare had been on a mission to scatter the ashes of a friend—a quick out-to-sea and back. This type of trawler yacht may not have been an ocean-crosser, but she was designed to easily handle normal sea conditions in San Francisco Bay, reported as four- to five-foot seas and Force 4-5 winds that day.
Roger Long is a retired naval architect who specialized in designing research vessels and sailing ships. He has testified in official proceedings about vessel stability in connection with disasters at sea. He helped Loose Cannon readers understand the sinkings of Bayesian and Pride of Baltimore.
Moreover, Long cruises the East Coast in a Gulfstar 43, a trawler of similar vintage and design as Volare.
Volare underway in what appears to the California Delta inland waterways near her homeport of Stockton. Early news accounts inaccurately described her as a pontoon boat.
Regular news accounts are rarely very helpful when the marine community is trying to figure out why a perfectly good boat decided to capsize or sink. Getting “slammed” by a five-foot wave, as the San Francisco Examiner reported, would not have been enough. John Arndt framed the real question, writing in the July 15 Latitude 38 online marine news outlet:
While many news reports did mention rough seas, they certainly weren’t any rougher than most sailors, wingfoilers and other boaters regularly experience while sailing San Francisco Bay. We are experiencing king tides, which could account for some additional chop, but realistically, it feels as if something unusual happened to cause this tragic accident. These were “normal” Bay conditions, so some other explanation is probably needed to understand why a solidly built 50-ft trawler somehow faltered on the Bay.
Long is fairly certain the explanation is “undetected engine room flooding.”
The Coast Guard reported that the boat was hit by a wave, causing it to suddenly capsize and throw people into the bay. Yet the images of the Bimini top just peeking over the water show Volare awash but upright. Then she sank.
According to Long, who has done the math, no matter how people on board were distributed during the reported sea conditions, their weight would not topple Volare onto her side, let alone sufficiently to submerge the boat’s engine intake vents.
Long said similar designs are licensed by the Coast Guard to carry up to 49 passengers.
An unusual design feature of the Marine Trader 50 is that each of her twin engines has its own stand-up engine compartment, separated by a corridor that leads from the main accommodations area to an aft cabin.
Long noted that a diesel engine will continue to run until water rises high enough to flood its air intake. In other words, a lot of water can come in before a stalled engine makes the problem apparent. According to Long, a possible culprit in the flooding was a burst raw-water cooling hose.
If the doors to the engine compartments were all closed, water coming into one side might create an asymmetrical flooding scenario, at least initially (and depending on how well the doors were sealed).
Retired Coast Guard Lt. Commander John Mixon, speaking to NBC News, speculated that the seeming rapidity of Volare’s sinking may have been due to “water intrusion in the lower levels of the boat.”
This track was provided to Latitude 38 by Greg Braswell.
The vessel was barely two miles from getting back to her embarkation point at San Francisco when the accident happened, and the number of people and the social nature of the outing may have masked the fact that the boat was beginning to handle poorly, Long said.
A broker who once helped sell Volare was very familiar with her. After the disaster, he spoke to a witness. “I believe it was a mechanical failure in the port engine room, which was sealed. But the facts will come out,” Mike Garner said in a Facebook comment. “I say that because one of my close friends, who is a captain, was there and witnessed this tragic incident from the beginning to the end. What he described to me made sense.”
According to news accounts, the Coast Guard will investigate the feasibility of recovering Volare, which now sits on the bottom 128 feet down. Some number of the missing three bodies may be inside her.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues, and nautical history. Every so often, he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
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Christ in the Storm on the Sea of Galilee is a 1633 oil-on-canvas painting by the Dutch Golden Age painter Rembrandt. It was based a description of the Gospel of Mark about how Christ calmed the water. A rational thinker might surmise that Jesus—the only calm guy on the boat—had applied the old sailors’ trick of using “storm oil,” which helps prevent waves like this one from breaking. One scholar has suggested oil may also have played a role in preserving the vessel that ran into foul weather while carrying St. Paul to Rome.
This story first appeared on July 26, 2023.
While writing a story recently about a harbor plagued by petroleum spills, I was reminded of being a kid and reading about mariners using oil to help survive offshore storms. It was the 1960s, so the magazine might have been in Yachting before it transmogrified into the sop to millionaires it is today.
“Storm oil,” they called it, and it could be deployed upwind in a container attached, for example, to a sea anchor, where it slowly released its contents. Like nutmeg on butternut squash, storm oil was effective even when applied in tiny amounts.
And, as the photo above was meant to suggest, the technique has been used since biblical times. As recreational boating was trending upward in the last century, boating magazines were launched to serve the new market, and one service to readers was to pass along wisdom of professional mariners.
One early magazine account of storm oil appeared in this issue of Motor Boating, known for it’s stunning cover art:
This “heavy weather edition” of the June 1912 magazine credited the Phonecians with first use of storm oil: Sailors from the ancient Middle Eastern nation had observed “that after passing through the wake of whales, oil exuding from their bodies left a perfectly calm spot” (presumably referring to the bodies of the whales, not the sailors).
The following bits of wisdom were contributed to Motor Boating by E.A. Crawford of Newark, N.J.:
As soon as the oil spreads on the surface of the water, it places a film over it, which effectually prevents the waves from coaming and breaking. Of course, it has no effect on the swell.
Three bags should be sufficient for a boat as they may be constructed in any manner desired, although the usual shape is cylindrical about six inches in diameter, of two or more thicknesses of heavy canvas. Stuff with oakum and punch full of holes at least a quarter of an inch in diameter to allow the oil to leak out, which is easily done with a marlin spike.
These holes also admit the water, so it can facilitate the oil leakage and make it more uniform. Saturate the oakum with lard oil, if obtainable, as experiments tend to favor it to all others. Still most any oil will serve in an emergency, although mineral oil, having little fatty matter will not produce as good result as vegetable oil, while lard oil being composed entirely of fat is most effective…
If riding to a sea anchor, bend them to the cable, so it will be several fathoms ahead of the boat. Running before the wind, tow one from each bow, using enough line on them so they will always be in the water. At anchor, make one fast to the cable several lengths ahead of the boat, allowing sufficient line so it will float freely.
Cone Can in a Sea Anchor
Lifeboats were required to carry them until 1998. Originally, fish oil was the preferred medium, and it was the cheapest. Wave-quelling oil could also be used when launching or recovering ship’s boats or embarking or disembarking a pilot.
Attached to a Kellet
This illustration is from the June 1943 issue of Motor Boating. “Kellet” in the headline is a somewhat obscure term for a weight attached to an anchor rode.
Storm Oil Bags
The middle one, from an online market site, was labeled “no longer available.” The other two are in museums. (Click on an image to enlarge it.)
The final reference to storm oil that I could find in MotorBoating (the name had become one word) was a 1978 story about a 70-foot sailing vessel lying ahull. She was apparently surfing down massive waves and outrunning the slick until her crew began towing warps to slow the boat down enough to enjoy the effects of the oil.
Benjamin Franklin
There he goes again. Research a topic long enough, and sooner or later Benjamin Franklin is going to pop up. It wasn’t enough that he invented lightning rods, swim fins and bifocals, that he was first to chart the Gulf Stream, but it was Franklin that first confirmed scientifically the efficacy of storm oil.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
Sailing to England in the 1860s, Franklin observed that the greasy galley discharge from a nearby ship smoothed its wake. After arriving he conducted experiments at a British lake, which he summarized in a report on “Stilling the waves,” writing:
“Not more than a tea spoonful produced an instant calm, over a space several yards square, which spread amazingly, and extended itself gradually till it reached the lee side, making all that quarter of the pond, perhaps half an acre, as smooth as a looking glass.”
This YouTube guy replicated Franklin’s approach and gives a pretty good explanation of the science involved. He even used olive oil, as likely had the early Phonecian practicioners.
The Federal Water Pollution Control Act was enacted in 1948, but rewritten in 1972 and amended twice since. For boaters, one result was the placard below, which we are all required to display on vessels 26 feet and over with an enclosed engine compartment.
But what if a vessel is outside U.S. waters entirely? Todd Lochner, an admiralty lawyer in Annapolis, was asked whether restrictions on releasing oil follow us onto international waters, which is where we are most likely to have to ride out a storm.
The short version is that there are laws which are applicable to both U.S. territorial waters, and generally speaking, there are laws which will follow the flag state of the vessel. Let’s not forget that there are certain treaties like UNCLOS¹ which will apply, particularly if the flag state is a signatory as well. As usual, clear as mud with a lawyer response that I need more information and factual scenario, etc. etc.
As late as 1991, “Chapman Piloting & Seamanship & Small Boat Handling” was still informing readers of the benefits of oil in the storm but with a disclaimer about it’s dubious legality. In 1999, the first edition of “Surviving the Storm: Coastal & Offshore Tactics” by Steve and Linda Dashew only mentions storm oil a few times in passing.
No matter, I think. If given a choice between adding a couple quarts of Rotella T to the Atlantic and death by drowning, most of us would probably choose the former. The law and politically correctness may be why none of our written authorities are touting oil as a solution nowadays, but the real reason for its disuse is this: We now have tools to avoid being caught in storms, which did not exist before the 1990s, let alone 1912.
Better Forecasts
Ocean-crossers like the Dashews are a rare breed. Many of us haven’t done anything riskier than an overnighter. Most offshore passages are limited in duration to four, maybe five or six days. Think “I-65,” the route from New England to the Caribbean via Bermuda.
Weather forecasting for a four-day window is actually pretty damn accurate nowdays, and, since the new Millenium, the electronic means for receiving such forecasts have proliferated, the latest and greatest being Starlink. We’re not getting surprised like we used to.
Think of this way: The conditions for using storm oil and a sea anchor are pretty much the same, as suggested by one of the illustrations above. Yet the sea anchor has become like a vestigial tail. Many of us still carry one, but most of us who do, have never used it.
If you’ve deployed a sea anchor in actual storm conditions, please share the story with us below. Do you think oil would have helped?
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
There is always plenty to do around Charlotte Harbor. While berthed at Fishermen’s Village Marina, A CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, you are certain to enjoy visiting Western Florida’s beautiful Charlotte Harbor/Peace River.
Elizabeth City sits at the southern terminus of the Dismal Swamp Canal and has the well-earned reputation of being a transient-friendly town with free dockage for 72 hours.
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Both the US CFSv2 and the ECMWF ENSO models agree that this El Niño is strengthening rapidly and will likely be a strong-to-very-strong event peaking in fall/winter 2026.
The ECMWF is forecasting a peak relative Niño 3.4 anomaly of roughly 3.0–3.7°C, while CFSv2 peaks around 2.0–2.2°C. That’s nearly a full degree difference at the high end, with both models using the same relative index framework. The CFSv2 projection shows signs of a waning El Niño by early 2027, while ECMWF holds near peak conditions. If we average the two models you get a peak of about 2.7 C which would be a very strong El Nino indeed.
Putting this in historical context using RONI:
Since February 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has used the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) as its official ENSO metric, replacing the traditional ONI. RONI subtracts the tropical-mean SST anomaly from the Niño 3.4 value and applies a scaling factor, stripping out background warming to isolate true El Niño intensity. The three strongest events in the instrumental record (1950–present):
No event in the historical record has exceeded 2.5°C RONI. ECMWF’s plume implies a serious chance of shattering that ceiling by 0.5–1.2°C, which would be genuinely unprecedented. Even CFSv2’s more conservative projection would place this event among the top three on record, approaching the 1982-83 peak.
The 2015-16 event for comparison:
The 2015-16 El Niño crossed 1.0°C RONI in June 2015 and accelerated through fall: JAS 1.6 → ASO 1.9 → SON 2.2 → OND 2.3 → NDJ 2.4 (peak). Decay was swift, dropping below zero by May 2016 and plunging into strong La Niña (−1.1°C) by fall.
The 1982-83 event followed a nearly identical trajectory, peaking at 2.5°C in NDJ–DJF before collapsing into La Niña by late 1983.
Notably, the traditional ONI ranking of these events is different: 2015-16 led at 2.6°C, followed by 1997-98 at 2.3°C, and 1982-83 at 2.2°C. RONI reverses that order, revealing that much of 2015-16’s apparent record strength was inflated by background tropical warming rather than El Niño dynamics alone.
What to watch:
As we move into late summer, the rate of intensification will tell us which model is closer to reality. If we’re tracking toward ECMWF’s upper range, this will be an event unlike anything in the modern record. If CFSv2 is right, it’s still a major El Niño with significant global weather impacts, but not the record-breaker ECMWF suggests.
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This is the model of American Tug—the 365—that was being built for Joe and Tana Ganete when the company filed for bankruptcy
According to the American Tug bankrupcy petition, four vessels are in various stages of completion at the La Conner, Washington factory. The buyers of one of those boats last week filed a criminal complaint alleging the company CEO had defrauded them in the run-up to insolvency.
Joe and Tana Ganete of Gig Harbor, Washington, went to the Sagit County Sheriff’s Department with a timeline and a list of allegations and supporting documents. They say the department has opened a case file (No. 26-07957) and assigned an investigator to look into it.
Joe Ganete, who was a detective for 18 years before founding a company that provides services to law enforcement, said the charges might include theft by deception, exploitation of elders and financial crimes across state lines. Ganete named Kadey-Krogen and American Tug CEO Tucker West as the person most culpable.
Ganete said an investigation might well show that funds from American Tug were diverted to prop up Kadey-Krogen as its revenues declined, though it is not clear whether that, by itself, would be illegal.
Krogen acquired American Tug in May 2023. West filed Chapter 7 bankrupcy petitions for both companies last Monday. Unlike Chapter 11, which allows a company to reorganize and stay in business, Chapter 7 takes it directly to liquidation. That is, all assets are sold with proceeds going to creditors.
Attempts via text and email were made yesterday to reach Tucker West for his side of the story. There was no response, but if West eventually does reply, Loose Cannon will include his comments as a follow-up story.
According to the bankruptcy documents, the Ganete’s American Tug 365 is 85 percent complete and 85 percent paid for. Other buyers with unfinished boats at the factory are: Keith Asplundh of Palm Beach, 70 percent complete and paid for; Jeff and Susan Parker of Harrison, Tennessee, 35 percent complete and paid for, and Benjamin and Christine Saitz of Seattle, 25 percent complete and paid for.
Ganete said the bankruptcy court will treat the buyers as “unsecured creditors.” He said the other buyers have expressed interest in contributing to any criminal case as supporting witnesses. Ganete hopes the criminal investigation will prompt the bankruptcy judge to pause any liquidation of American Tug assets.
Ganete said different buyers had different contracts with American Tug, some of which presumably included regular payments at various construction milestones. Ganete’s was different: He and his wife paid 90 percent down—$700,000—with the remainder due at delivery. In exchange, Ganete said, American Tug discounted the price by several tens of thousands of dollars.
The Ganete’s contract also stipulated that the boat had to be delivered by a specific date or the $700,000 would be refunded to them. There were unexplained delays during construction, and American Tug failed to meet the deadline, Ganete said.
He said that when he raised the issue of a refund with West, he was told there was no money available for that purpose. “He defaulted on the contract at that point already,” Ganete said. “He’s already telling me he’s defaulting, and he can’t fulfill the contract.”
According to Ganete, West suggested they meet at the factory, so they agreed to get together on July 9. The petitions for liquidation were filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware on July 6. Ganete said he was never notified that their meeting was off.
“This is devastating. People had hopes and aspirations and plans, and, you know, no matter what walk of life you come from, whether you’re rich or poor, it hurts when you lose that much money,” he said.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
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