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    • No Imminent Threats, We’ll Watch the Gulf Next Week – SCDNR


       
       
       

      No Imminent Threats, We’ll Watch the Gulf Next Week

      South Carolina Department of Natural Resources color logo and white text of agency name and State Climatology Office

      Weather Alert  –  October 2, 2026

      No Imminent Threats, We’ll Watch the Gulf Next Week

      The Atlantic has returned to inactivity. We have no active tropical cyclones, and it’s unlikely that any will form over the next week. We’ll watch the Gulf for possible development starting later next week.

      This loop of visible satellite imagery shows the features of interest across the North Atlantic and eastern United States.

      The above loop of visible satellite imagery above shows features of interest across the North Atlantic and eastern U. S.:

      • The remnants of Fay well to the southeast of Bermuda.
      • Tropical waves along 74° west over the Caribbean Sea and along 38° west over the central tropical Atlantic.
      • A band of clouds stretching from Texas to New England along a cold front.
      • Disturbed weather over the eastern and central Gulf that will be drawn northward by the approaching cold front.

      Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth

      The only current feature of interest is the remains of Tropical Storm Fay, about 500 miles southeast of Bermuda, valiantly holding on in its fight to remain dead. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10 percent chance of resurrection. However, it will remain too far from South Carolina to affect us.

      Two tropical waves are passing through the deep tropics, one south of Haiti and the other around 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Neither is generating much thunderstorm activity. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear will prevent the waves from developing further as they drift westward.

      We’ll continue to watch cold fronts over the next week as they push through the Southeast and become stationary over the Gulf and southwestern Atlantic. Stationary fronts can become tropical cyclone breeding grounds over warm waters, and computer models indicate a low-end risk of a storm developing over the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf later next week or next weekend.

      This hurricane season has been the quietest in many years (2014 was the last season with only 8 named storms) and the first in over a century with no hurricanes to date (1914 had no hurricanes; we might go without a hurricane this season). Nevertheless, we have to stay prepped. You know, it only takes one. So stay ready and visit hurricane.sc if you need prep advice.


      SC Weather Highlights For the Next Week:

      Our current hot spell (and perhaps the last of the year, we can only hope) will end after today, as a cold front moves in this weekend.

      It’s great that we’ll cool off and, even better, we’ll see a soaking rain and thunderstorms over the weekend as a tropical air mass now over the Gulf gets pulled in by the front. Well, that’s not so great for outdoor plans you might have and for Saturday football (lightning delays are possible), but it will help with our drought.

      The downside is that the heavy rain we’ll see this weekend could cause isolated flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center’s outlooks have the entire state at level 1 of 4 for flooding rain on Saturday, then level 2 on Sunday into Sunday night. The rain will linger into Monday along the coast and perhaps farther inland; there’s some uncertainty about how long it takes for the front to sag south far enough that even the Lowcountry dries out. In fact, the front may become stationary near our coastal areas, keeping clouds and maybe even a shower or two around into Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in the coastal Lowcountry. Most areas are likely to get 1-2 inches of rain in the coming days, with some areas seeing 3-4 inches locally.

      WPC's Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook graphic for South Carolina, covering Sunday and Sunday night.

      WPC’s Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook graphic for South Carolina shows the entire state in a level 2 of 4 risk area for flooding rain Sunday and Sunday night.

      We’re likely to remain dry elsewhere early next week, and across the state later next week, with the next chance of rain next weekend.

      We’ll go from today’s summery warmth to early November-like temperatures behind the front. Saturday will be warm again with highs in the 80s, then near 70 in the Upstate to the low 80s in the Lowcountry on Sunday. It will be even cooler early next week; highs will be in the mid-to-upper 70s on Monday, then in the upper 60s and low 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Late next week looks a little warmer, but with highs still mainly in the 70s. Expect chilly mornings next week, with lows mainly in the 40s and 50s.


      Frank Strait
      Severe Weather Liaison
      S.C. State Climate Office

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    • Cruisers’ Net Weekly Newsletter – October 2, 2026

      Cruisers’ Net Newsletter for this week has just been emailed via Constant Contact.
       
      If you want to view the newsletter but are not signed up to receive them automatically, you can view it at https://conta.cc/4ysCVtV or see it below.
       
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    • Legacy Harbour Marina REOPENS, Okeechobee Waterway Statute Mile 135.5


      Great news for the cruising community.  One of my personal favorite marinas is open again four years after being destroyed by Hurricane Ian in September 2022.  Legacy Harbour was a longtime CRUISERS NET SPONSOR, and we look forward to their new 131 slip marina featuring Bellingham’s wave attenuator and dock systems.  Construction is expected to be completed in Spring 2026.

      We’re officially open and it feels good to have boats back at Legacy Harbour Marina! ⚓
      Nearly four years after Hurricane Ian, our rebuilt docks are once again welcoming boaters to the Fort Myers waterfront. With 131 wet slips for vessels from 40 to 140 feet, upgraded infrastructure and enhanced amenities, we’re ready for what’s ahead.
      WINK News hit the docks as some of our first boaters arrived and spoke with harbourmaster Eric Ravenschlag about the rebuild and what it means to welcome the boating community back.
      The docks are ready. The boats are arriving. And we’re just getting started.
      Watch the WINK News story and read more here: https://bit.ly/4hmP8ud

      Click Here To View the Cruisers’ Net’s Western Florida Marina Directory Listing For Legacy Harbour Marina

      Click Here To Open A Chart View Window, Zoomed To the Location of Legacy Harbour Marina

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    • TS Hanna Forms over Central Atlantic – Fred Pickhardt


      Fred Pickhardt’s Substack is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Fred Pickhardt’s Substack that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments.

       

         
       
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      The disturbance previously tracked over the central subtropical Atlantic has acquired a well-defined surface circulation and center.

      Current Status (1500 UTC (1100 AM AST), Mon Sep 28

      • Center Location: 36.6N, 50.4W (Accurate within 25 NM)
      • Present Movement: East (100 degrees) at 15 knots

      Wind & Pressure Profile

      • Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 knots
      • Peak Gusts: 50 knots
      • Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB
      • Max Significant Wave Height: Estimated 4-4.5 meters (13-15 feet)

      Wind Field

      The strongest winds (35 to 40 knots) and deep convection are located to the east and southeast of the center, largely due to strong westerly shear. Currently, 34-knot tropical storm-force winds extend out about 80 nautical miles strictly into the southeastern quadrant..

      Outlook

      Hanna is expected to slow after about 24 hours, then turn toward the east-northeast. Strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to persist over the storm for the next several days, meaning little, if any, strengthening is anticipated. Within a couple of days, Hanna is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low.

         

      NOAA National Hurricane Center

      NOAA High Seas Forecast

      Ocean Weather Services

      Forensic Marine Weather Expert

       

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    • Nor’easter thrashes coast from Cape Lookout to Duck – CoastalReview

       

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    • East Coast Low Update – Fred Pickhardt


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      The large storm low off the coast yesterday has looped northwest and now is moving southwest with the center over Delaware Bay . Winds have diminished with mostly 25-40 knots winds reported within 90 nm of the center and 20-30 knot winds elsewhere.

         

       

      Coastal Impacts

         

      NOAA Ocean Prediction Center

      NOAA High Seas Forecast

      NOAA Offshore Forecasts

      NOAA US Coastal Waters Forecasts

      NOAA Weather Prediction Center

      Ocean Weather Services

      Forensic Marine Weather Expert

       

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    • Island Packet’s Own Surveyor Told Us Our Boat ‘Wasn’t Seaworthy’ – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with

       

       
         
       
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      When all else fails, try journalism.


         

      In preparation for yesterday’s story about a man who believes he was poisoned by his boat’s water tank, Loose Cannon contacted 35 Island Packet owners, whose emails had been obtained during research.¹ The idea was to get a sense of the room.

      Only seven replied. Six loved their boats and were supportive of the factory, though it’s not clear whether all were referring to the “new Island Packet” or the Bob Johnson era. Nor could it be ascertained whether these six were sincere or indulging in the entirely natural impulse to protect the dollar value of their purchase against negative publicity.

      The seventh email came from Murray and Caroline Atkinson, which you can read below, followed by criticism of the couple by Island Packet President Darrell Allen. Their account is relevant to yesterday’s story in that it speaks to the state of quality control at today’s Island Packet.


      We bought Salamander in February 2023, which was the original planned delivery date. However, after paying our initial deposit (Island Packet President) Darrell Allen informed us two 349s had put theirs back (they’d actually cancelled due to price rises) and asked if we could come forward.

      We agreed on December and paid the first payment. The build was supposed to start in May. They started in July.

      So we took delivery in February 2023. Opening a cupboard, all the shelves fell down. The initial punch list was around 100 items. Getting all these dealt with cost us the sailing trial period.

      Eventually, we left for Guatemala via Dry Tortugas. While there we discovered we had no anodes, so we went back to Florida and IP had a diver fit new ones. That was a problem with the marina electrics, it might be worth asking other owners about their early anode use.

      Then we went to Guatemala and discovered we had no prop anode. The propeller also needed greasing so we hauled out.

      We found patches of anti-foul had fallen off. We decided then to re-antifoul with coppercoat so got hauled out at the next yard which can do that. A third of the gel coat, not just antifoul, fell off. IP paid for the remedial work and assessed that they had done the coats with insufficient time between.

      Share

      On relaunch, the bowthruster failed to work.

      I found the main negative cable carrying 100 amps hadn’t been crimped into the lug. IP paid for a hydraulic crimper so I could do it myself.

      A couple of other minor electrical connections also came apart.

      We left Guatemala for Panama. After 300 miles, I was on deck while Caroline was sleeping in the storm bunk, which is next to the solar charging MPPT controller.

      She woke and wondered why her vision was off and went to the loo. When she came back, she had woken and realised there was a fire.

      I came down and we dealt with the fire. It transpired the fuse had been fitted with a stainless washer between the lug and the fuse, and this had got hot enough to ignite a cardboard box. The wrong covers had also been fitted, the correct one is designed to prevent contact between the connections and anything else while allowing airflow. The covers fitted were rubber sleeves, which added insulation.

      So, we fixed that and requested IP perform a full electrical survey.

      IP agreed to send both of their warranty repair guys to Panama to address several other issues and check the electrics.

      In the event, only one came, and he did all the other issues but didn’t look at the electrics. We gave feedback, including that we still needed the electrics to be checked.

      Then, we went through the Panama canal. Twice during this the engine went to derate mode but reset.² The process is that engines have to be on the whole time even when stationary or being towed by a partner boat as we were, so we reconciled that that had caused the derate mode, probably erroneously.

      Next sail was to Hawaii, 5,000 miles from Panama.

      By the time we arrived in Hawaii it was apparent the batteries were failing at 2.5 years old. We replaced them, and IP paid for the new ones. I checked all the Victron settings, and it transpired IP had left them on the default AGM settings but had fitted Lifeline top quality batteries, which have their own recommended settings. I changed the settings and the new batteries are still fine.

      We again asked for an electrical survey.

      From Hawaii, we went to Alaska. Alaska to California saw very little wind, and we motored most of the way with no problems, hauled out at Napa where we discovered the throttle handle had cold welded itself onto the splines and I had to cut it off. IP sent a replacement. I had to drill out the new fitting as the holes didn’t match the studs.

      It might be worth asking other owners if they’ve taken this lever off.

      Then we motored 40 miles towards a friend near Lodi, California. With seven miles to go the engine went to derate and shut down. We were in a main shipping channel in the river. We drifted to the edge and anchored. Port control radioed and required that we move out of the channel so we arranged a tow at around $2,000.

      At the dock we contacted the local Yanmar dealer who attended and diagnosed a defective turbo. Due to circumstances, we had to be towed to a local marina for another $400 or so.

      The new turbo was fitted and made no difference. The dealer ran diagnostics and diagnosed high fuel pressure. They then proceeded to change all the fuel system one part at a time. Each time the engine was fine initially then failed again. After replacing the fuel pump it seemed fine for a while, so I tested the bow thruster and the engine failed again.

      The Yanmar dealer agreed it now seemed electrical. I followed advice to reduce EMI³ in the engine circuits, and the dealer provided new alternator and ECU to test. Neither made any difference, but during testing it became apparent that the problem occurred only when the batteries were at 13.5 volts. With ferrite clips everywhere this went up to 13.9 volts, confirming the EMI diagnosis.

      Then Darrell arranged for a marine electrical surveyor in Long Beach to conduct a survey.

      Obviously, we had to get to Long Beach and needed the engine to work, so had to prevent the batteries reaching the trigger voltage. I fitted a switch to turn the alternator off.

      During this journey the engine went to derate again. I realised this was due to solar charging and thought about how to prevent the starter battery reaching the trigger voltage.

      We arrived at Long Beach, and the surveyor came and examined the boat. The only thing he spotted and told me about was the defective exhaust elbow. He refused to discuss his electrical findings since IP was his client.

      While arranging the survey he stated he thought the boat wasn’t seaworthy.

      I asked whether the boat was still unseaworthy, and both he and IP refused to answer. Darrell stated that it was clear from the report that the changes I had made had caused the problem.

      The surveyor said he had no idea how Darrell could come to that conclusion but still refused to let me see the report. Darrell also refused to send me the report and subsequent emails have gone unanswered.

      I realized I didn’t need to prevent the battery reaching the trigger voltage, only control the output voltage. So after spending several thousand dollars on a turbo, etc. and $1,300 getting to the survey, a $67 part has cured the symptoms. IP still refused to discuss or contribute.

      Footnote: The exhaust elbow is made locally to IP and isn’t the Yanmar part. I only found that out by sending photos to Yanmar since their part drawings didn’t match what I was seeing. We had it repaired in Long Beach, and the welder described in detail why it had failed and what the design fault is. IP sent a replacement to our home in U.K.


      Allen Responds

      In an audio-recorded interview, Darrell Allen first accepted and then declined an invitation to address the Atkinson email point by point. Instead, he blamed them entirely for everything that happened, saying:

      Yeah, yeah, yeah.​ A couple from the U.K. who literally have no clue what they’re doing as well. And I just recently had a guy out of Newport beach, one of the most respected electricians in Southern California, go out and try to fix the issues that they said were wrong with the boat. And he sent me pictures of the wiring that they had modified and done to that boat.

      And he said that it would take him probably 40 to 80 hours to correct all the problems that they had made on that boat. Okay? So, we’ve got plenty of proof on our side.

      1

      Dear IP Folks,

      I’m a marine journalist who writes under the Loose Cannon Substack. Before that I was an editor or the editor at several boating magazines. Before that I was an editor or investigative journalist at several newspapers.

      Sorry for the form letter, but I thought this would be the best way to get the broadest spectrum of opinions about the current state of Island Packet Yachts. I have just listened to the worst warranty claim story of my entire life, and it involved an Island Packet 439. Have any of you had any bad experiences with the company regarding issues such as quality workmanship or warranty work, or has your experience been positive?

      2

      An engine derate on a Yanmar diesel system is a protective operating state triggered by the Engine Control Module (ECM) to limit power, torque, or RPM and prevent severe mechanical or emissions damage.

      3

      Electromagnetic interference (EMI) is unwanted electrical noise or disturbance caused by an external or internal electromagnetic field that disrupts the normal operation of electronic devices.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

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    • Unredeemed: Island Packet Owner’s Dream Turns Nightmarish – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with

       

      Unredeemed: Island Packet Owner’s Dream Turns Nightmarish

        
       
         
       
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      Unredeemed: Island Packet Owner’s Dream Turns Nightmarish

      Says He Drank Cancer Soup from His Boat’s Water Tank. Now, HE Has To Pay IP $86,000

       
       
       
       
       

      READ IN APP

       
         
      Mark and Susan Boyter enjoying the honeymoon period of boat ownership. It would not last.

      Mark Boyter was 65. He was a retired fighter pilot who had capped off his service, as one does, with a second career flying for an airline. Once truly retired, he and his wife Susan went about trying to fulfill their dream of sailing the Seven Seas.

      Honed by the U.S. Air Force, Boyter’s sense of excellence aligned perfectly with the reputation enjoyed by Island Packet Yachts of Largo Florida. In 2021, the Boyters commissioned the company to build them a 439 sloop. They would name their 47-footer Redeemed. The pricetag: $857,000.

      Five years later, the dream is dead, and the Boyters are feeling bettayed.

      Having to replace the engine because of an installation mistake was bad enough, but nothing like what came next. Boyter had spent nearly eight months drinking water from what an experts say was a poorly designed and defective water tank.

      All the while, according to lab testing, the unfinished fiberglass tank interior was leeching carcinogens. The tank was designed and fabricated by Island Packet, not outsourced.

      Boyter was twice hospitalized. Doctors put him on a detoxification regimen that began two years ago and continues to this day. Blood tests had shown a likely correlation with the high levels of toxic chemicals found in the water, they said.

      The good news, they told him, was that he did not have cancer.

      Naturally, Boyter’s first move had been to complain to the factory, but he said Island Packet President Darrell Allen ghosted him. He finally got IP’s attention when he sued them, but an arbitration clause in the sales contract took precedence over the formal lawsuit.

      Somehow, despite a pile of documentation, the Boyters lost the case, and the arbitrator awarded $86,000 to Island Packet for legal fees.

      This story was put together using a vessel survey, which included lab reports. It included doctor statements, interviews with two former Island Packet employees, correspondence with Island Packet owners, an evaluation by a leading expert on fiberglass tanks, and interviews with Boyter’s lawyer and a lawyer for Island Packet.

      And, of course, IP boss Darrell Allen was eager to talk. Allen, who bought the company with his wife in 2017, called everything you are about to read “B.S.” All you need to know, he said, is that Island Packet won in court.

      ‘Ugly Shit’

         
      This water tank is almost new but it shows signs of falling apart.

      “I was exposed to the water in the tank (by internal consumption) from 01 September 2022 until 23 April 2023. Both my wife and I were exposed to the water through washing dishes and occasional showers until we moved off the vessel on 09 June, 2023—281 days…One may wonder why my wife did not get sick form the water. The answer is that she was drinking canned LeCroix water exclusively.”—Mark Boyter, September 2026

      The Absent 25 Mil

      Twenty-five thousands of an inch—that can make the difference between drinking clean water or ingesting waterborne toxins that can cause organ failure and cancer. That is, 25 mils in the parlance of the boatbuilding world.

      Twenty-five mils is the thickness of two coats of food-safe gelcoat, which a boatbuilder fabricating fiberglass water tanks should routinely apply to isolate the structural glass fibers and resin from the contents of a tank.

      John Bannister is a well regarded marine surveyor working from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Bannister is a Coast Guard veteran, a licensed private investigator, a certified thermographer and advertises a specialty in the employment of consulting laboratories.

      Boyter noticed that water from the tank had a funky taste, and a “grey/pink fibrous substance” kept clogging Redeemed’s inline water filter.

      In May 2023, Boyter hired Bannister’s Suenos Azules Marine Surveying company to document a damage claim for problems with Redeemed’s Yanmar engine and a tank that produced foul-tasting water. The first step was to use a boroscope camera to inspect the inside to the tank while it was still intact. Later, the saloon floor was ripped out to remove the tank top for a better look.

      But, in between, water from the tank was sent to a testing lab. Results came back showing highly elevated levels of the following “plastic leachates”: Benzene, Bromochloromethane, Bromodichloromethane, Bromoform, Chloroform, Dibromochloromethane and Dibromomethane.

      Taken as a whole, according to the American Cancer Society, this mix can cause liver and kidney damage, bladder and other cancers, leukemia and a degradation of the human immune system.

      Bannister recommended the replacement of Redeemed’s Yanmar because an improperly installed exhaust system had allowed seawater to be sucked into the engine, causing corrosion throughout interior components.

      Similarly, he urged Boyter to remove the water tank and have a new one fabricated. Bannister said the tank failed to meet American Boat and Yacht Council’s voluntary standard for tankage, which says:

      Materials in contact with potable water shall be corrosion resistant and shall not render the water nonpotable, or impart any undesirable taste, odor, or color. Materials in contact with potable water shall be nontoxic and comply with the EPA Reduction of Lead in Drinking Water Act amendment to the Safe Drinking Water Act.”

      And, speaking of federal regulations, Redeemed’s water tank was an outright violation of those too, Bannister wrote in his survey report. “I believe the tank was not safe for water to be consumed by humans as per the safe water drinking standards by manufacturers as outlined in 40 CFR 143,” he said.

      Ken Fickett has been building fiberglass boats in Gainesville, Florida, since 1972—more than a thousand altogether. He has built racing sailboats, sportfish boats, flats fishing boats, experimental aircraft and a host of non-marine fiberglass components, but his company, Mirage Manufacturing, is best known today for its of line of full-displacement trawler yachts.

      He was an early adopter of integral fiberglass tanks, which, unlike standard aluminum tankage, have had a zero failure rate down through the decades. Fickett markets the tanks on his Great Harbour trawlers as “forever tanks.”

      Fickett’s first reaction to the survey photos of Redeemed’s water tank was succinct. “Ugly shit,” he called it.

      His second reaction was one of astonishment. Like many in the industry, he had always regarded Island Packet as a quality player. “I can’t believe it. I’d never, never imagine anything like that. That’s nuts,” Fickett said, referring to images of raw fiberglass.

      A former Island Packet employee said the 250-gallon water tanks have been made using resin and glass fiber material over two male molds—the tank itself and a lid. There is never a food-safe coating applied, but this person said the parts are then baked, presumably to speed resin curing.

      Boyter’s surveyor noted that baffles in the tank were made of plate aluminum, tabbed to the tank structure, which thermal imaging indicated was failing in several places.

      Even so, according to the former employee, he had never heard of an owner complaining about water tanks over the dozens that had been built during his tenure.

      This was echoed by Allen. “That water tank had been built for 15 years before I took over Island Packet. (IP founder) Bob Johnson installed that water tank in probably 2,000 boats. Exactly the same,” he said. “We used the proper resins. We did what we were supposed to do.”

      Two things about aluminum, Fickett said: Unlike glass on glass, resin will not chemically bond a glass-fiber surface to aluminum. Secondly, aluminum corrosion is accelerated by exposure the chlorinated municipal water, which is what fills most boat water tanks.

      Baking tank components may slow the rate at which chemicals leech into the water, but it will not eliminate the process entirely, Fickett said. He estimated that Island Packet’s cost to paint the interior of a 250-gallon tank with a coating approved for potable water would be about $50 for materials and labor.

      That’s now a moot point, according to Allen. He said the company will no longer make its own fiberglass tanks, but not because there was anything unsafe about them. He said it was just cheaper to go with polyethylene water tanks. These are typically rotationally molded from FDA approved plastic free from harmful chemicals.

      Interviews with two former employees suggested that the Island Packet production under its current administration has been chaotic, plagued by high employee turnover. “It’s a clusterfuck,” one of them said.

      This raises the possibility that, in the case of Redeemed, the step that involved baking the water-tank components may have been skipped entirely. The surveyor’s report characterized the tank as “unfinished.”

      At this point, some readers may be asking why Boyter was willing to keep drinking water that must have tasted bad. Boyter is a skilled aircraft pilot, and therefore he is not dumb. He is, however, a novice when it comes to cruising craft.

      Boyter was cruising when he first noticed what he described as a “citrus-sweet taste” in water coming from the boat’s tap at the beginning of April 2023—eight months into their time on board. The water had no odor, however, and at the time it looked clean.

      He said he asked other cruisers for advice and was told that maybe they had taken on some water contaminated with algae. “We thought that we had pumped bad water into the tank. Who could conceive that the supposedly safe potable water tank was literally coming apart beneath our feet?” Boyter said.

      It was only later when the inline filter became clogged with fiberglass crud—those pink-grey fibers—did the Boyters realize the extent of their problem. And the taste was getting worse.

      They took the boat to Stuart, Florida, where they hired surveyor John Bannister. On June 9, 2023, the Boyters moved their belongings off the boat and drove to Colorado to stay with relatives, having concluded that Redeemed was “unsafe and uninhabitable.”

      Yesterday, Allen suggested that the surveyor photos of Redeemed’s water tanks had been somehow falsified. He had agreed to an audio recorded interview, from which this is drawn:

      Darrell Allen: How do we know that those pictures are even our tanks?

      Loose Cannon: So what you’re saying is that the surveyor falsified his survey?

      Allen: I don’t know who falsified it. I can’t say that.

      L.C.: Because he’s the one that took the pictures.

      Allen: How does he know that tank was even in the boat? He didn’t see it when it was in the boat.

      L.C.: Well, the pictures are of it in the boat. You haven’t seen the pictures?

      Allen: No, I didn’t. I have not seen the pictures.

      L.C.: Have you got a copy of that survey? You must have. They must have thrown it at you at some point.

      Allen: No, we don’t have a copy of the survey. We went over with our own surveyor and did our own survey, but we were not. We didn’t. We’re not given access to the water tank.

      L.C.: All right, so you’ve never seen that survey.

      Allen: I didn’t think I needed to. I wouldn’t have trusted their surveyor anyway.

      Six Months To Live

      Dr. Gina Dattoli practices family medicine near Denver. Dattoli first met with Boyter on December 23, 2023 and prescribed a detox kit of over-the-counter medicine and a drug called Ketotifen. Though unsaid at the time, she later told Boyter she believed he would likely be dead within six months. In January 2025, Dattoli wrote:

      (Mark) came to me with extreme symptoms of stomach/intestinal irritation, urinary symptoms. Labs showing liver/gall bladder damage with high AST, ALT and LDH, along with high bilirubin. These findings are consistent with damage from contaminated drinking water. Namely chemicals such as benzene, bromodichloromethane, bromoform, chloroform, dibromochloromethane and dibromomethane cause gastric irritation and liver damage.

      For treatment, I began to work on detoxing the chemicals. We had to start very slow (most patients are able to do the treatment twice daily, with Mark we had to do the treatment once every four days). We weren’t able the do the treatment any faster because

      Mark developed what is called a Herxheimer reaction. We see this reaction when the toxin burden is too high for the liver and it gets overwhelmed. Despite having to go slowly on the detox protocol, we have gotten tremendous improvement in symptoms. It will likely take another six to nine months of treatment before we achieve full healing.

      The surgeon who performed a biopsy on Boyter’s bladder, Dr. Michael Lee wrote a note explaining the results from the May 2025 procedure:

      Just as suspected, there was evidence of some inflammation and congestion, which probably correlates well with toxic exposures that you received related to your boat.

      In any case, there was no evidence of cancer. Certainly, this is great!

      Boyter said he will be adhering to a detoxification regimen for at least another two years, but the worst is behind him.

      Justice, or Not

      Mark Boyter said he tried to have a conversation with Darrell Allen about the problems with Redeemed, but Allen would not return his calls. He hired Admiralty lawyers in Stuart, Florida, who wrote a demand letter to Island Packet in December 2023—sent via FedEx with proof of delivery. Still no response.

      Boyter had spent more than $150,000 of his own money to have a boatyard install a new engine and water tank in Redeemed.

      That lawyer retired, so Boyter hired a new advocate. He hired a consumer protection attorney in St. Petersburg named Aldo Bolliger.

      On April 30, 2024, Bolliger filed a lawsuit on behalf of the Boyters in the Pinellas County Circuit Court, alleging serious defects under the federal Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act and under Florida products-liability law. He said his client’s “faith in the vessel has been shaken, irreparably harmed, and the vessel’s value has been affected.”

      At this point, Island Packet responded, and its lawyers presented IP’s contract with the Boyters, which had a standard arbitration clause. Such clauses trump formal litigation, and the lawsuit was put on hold while arbitration was underway.

      Long story short: Arbitrator Lori Adelson ruled in favor of Island Packet and awarded the attorney fees to the company.

      According to Bolliger and Boyter, the case never got to a point where the actual merits were discussed. Adelson never heard arguments about the engine installation case, the toxic water tank or other less series issues. Bolliger ruled against the Boyters in a series of procedural questions.

      “We never got to the merits whatsoever,” Bolliger said. “All of this was wrangling, and basically this case got chopped up, and they got rid of the main claim, the breach-of-warranty claim.”

      According to Bolliger, arbitrator Adelson upheld Island Packet when it was argued that Darrell Allen never saw the Boyters’ demand letter from December 2023, even though someone at the factory had signed for it.

      Island Packet’s lawyer would not directly address Bolliger’s contention that actual facts were never addressed. He insisted that the Boyters lost simply because they didn’t have a good case.

      Allen and his lawyer both accused the Boyter side of having “destroyed evidence.”

      According to Boyter, the old water tank had to be ripped out the boat in pieces, and even though the yard workers had been told to preserve those pieces, they looked like trash and were thrown away.

      Adelson entertained IP’s lawyers’ contention that this constituted destruction of evidence, even though the state of the tank had been documented in photos, video and by lab tested water samples.

      When Bolliger tried to get evidence from a new Boyter doctor admitted, Adelson said no; the deadline had passed.

      Boyter and Bolliger said something was fishy about about bringing in an arbitrator from Pompano Beach on the other side of the Florida peninsula, when there were probably dozens of arbitrators around Tampa-St. Pete who could have heard the case. They objected, but the defendants were happy with the choice, and she stayed on.

      Boyter called the arbitration system “corrupt.” Bolliger was more phlegmatic as he explained why so many big-ticket purchase contracts contain an arbitration clause:

      This type of stuff is not unique. The repeat customer in arbitration is the business, not the consumer. And so I’ve had a lot of negative experiences with arbitration, especially in front of the AAA, the American Arbitration Association. They only hire the most conservative arbitrators.

      Systemic predilections aside, Bolliger called Adelson “the most unprofessional arbitrator I’ve ever had.”

      The case of Boyter v. Island Packet ended earlier this month. According to Bolliger, the Boyters have the option to appeal to a higher state court or file a federal case, but the process has worn them down.

      “He already has an $86,000 judgment outstanding against him. Does he really want to go and litigate again?” Bolliger said. “He’s kind of gun-shy, and I think his wife wants everything behind them. I don’t think she wants him to litigate again.”

      (Allen insisted the attorney-fee amount was $160,000, not $86,000. The most recent court document that listed dollar figures showed $100,698, and a subsequent document mentioned a further reduction but not by how much.)

      Whistleblower

      Paulo Bonelli is a fired ex-Island Packet employee living in Clearwater, Florida. And he is a whistleblower. Bonelli was a salaried employee, hired in September 2023 as product delivery manager. His job included helping to correct the “punchlist” of problems that accompany any new boat.

      Bonelli later made “protected disclosures” to the U.S. Coast Guard that gained him official protection under federal statutes that forbid retaliation against employees who speak out about their boses.

      OSHA, the federal agency whose mission is worker protection, was unable to determine whether Bonelli’s firing was retaliatory or not and told him he would have to plead his case before an administrative law judge.

      Bonelli did not, but he is still considered a whistleblower by the feds and under the plain English meaning of the word. His allegations against Island Packet and Darrell Allen include, among other things:

      • Failure to report a possible fleetwide critical safety defect to potentially affected owners, after one owner’s steering failed. IP also failed to report it to the U.S. Coast Guard, which, according to Bonelli, was a violation of federal statutes, namely 46 U.S.C § 4310(b).
      • How Allen instructed Bonelli not to tell Boyter or other owners about the steering failure.
      • How Allen instructed Bonelli not to tell Boyter that Redeemed’s engine problems had been determined to be the result of an improperly installed exhaust system. He was told to chalk it up to “operator error” instead.

      Bonelli included the steering problem, Boyter’s engine problem and a third problem as examples of IP’s failure to disclose or report critical issues to the Coast Guard, so he reported them to the Coast Guard himself.

      The Coast Guard followed up, but nothing much came of it.

      Bonelli also helped Boyter identify the problems with his engine and water tanks early on. He said Redeemed’s engine and tank issues was discussed during some of Island Packet’s thrice weekly production meetings.

      Bonelli doesn’t believe Allen’s contention that he never saw the Boyter’s notice of claim delivered by FedEx.

      “The reason (Allen) didn’t go and honor Mark’s warranty is because he was broke. He had no money. He couldn’t afford to replace an engine and a tank,” Bonelli told Loose Cannon.

      “That’s a lie,” Allen said. “I just bought a three-and-a-half-million-dollar facility and put one and a half million dollars down on it.”

         
      Darrell Allen, left, in a recent YouTube video about his company’s new factory, entitled “Island Packet Yachts Saturday Tour with a friend.”

      To back up his claim that IP had been suffering financially, Bonelli cited financing that Allen had obtained at a loanshark interest rate of 68 percent.

      The existence of this loan became public after the lender—ODK Capital aka OnDeck—sued Island Packet and Allen in Pinellas County Circuit Court in August 2025, alleging that the defendants had stopped making their $5,000-a-week payments.

         

      The date of the loan was April 9, 2025, around the same time as the Boyter lawsuit against IP was being put on hold and arbitration was about to begin. Such an extraordinarily high interest rate begs the question of why anyone would take out such a loan if there were any alternative.

      Allen would not address that question because he said no such loan existed. That was his first position, anyway. From the transcript:

      Loose Cannon: What was that OnDeck loan about then? That was like 68 percent interest.

      Darrell Allen: That wasn’t even real.

      L.C.: That wasn’t real? They sued you.

      Allen: No. No.

      L.C.: You didn’t, you didn’t take that loan out?

      Allen: No.

      L.C.: Why did they sue you?

      Allen: They didn’t sue me. I was never sued by OnDeck.

      L.C.: Was it Island Packet that was sued then?

      Allen: No.

      L.C.: I mean, I’ve got the lawsuit.

      Allen: There is no lawsuit out there.

      L.C.: Okay?

      Allen: That lawsuit was dismissed.

      L.C. Okay? There was a lawsuit.

      Allen: It was dismissed. A lawsuit when it was first brought up, and it’s dismissed. It’s not a lawsuit. I can go file a lawsuit against you. Does that make it real?

      L.C.: Well, it means that there’s lawsuit filed against me.

      Allen: Okay, so what does that mean? Means I paid an attorney to file a lawsuit.

      L.C.: So why did this company say that you owed them, weren’t repaying a loan that you made with them?

      Allen: That’s not true at all.

         

      OnDeck’s lawsuit was eventually dismissed. Court documents show OnDeck receiving a final $239,000 payment (including $56,000 in interest) in July 2025.

      Bonelli’s statements support the narrative that Island Packet’s production system was chaotic and lacked the kind of quality control that might have prevented Redeemed’s numerous problems, including the engine and tank issues.

      While it is not unusual for a new boat punchlist to cite two or even three dozen problems, Bonelli said some owners had boats with more than 100. “There’s just absolutely zero quality control at the factory,” he said.

      This narrative is supported by a second former Island Packet employee, who spoke to Loose Cannon at length on the condition that his name not be used.

      Sometimes, Bonelli said, he would help owners fix problems that the factory was unaware of or would not acknowlege.

      According to Bonelli, one of his previous jobs, while living in Texas, was as a civil rights investigator. Bonelli’s statements suggest that he felt more loyalty toward IP’s customers than the company itself.

      And that became readily apparent to his bosses.

      “Paulo’s an idiot,” Allen said. “We fired him because he screwed everything up that we gave him to do. And he became friends with the Boyters because he doesn’t like us.”

      Darrell Allen and ‘Kahunas’

      The president of Island Packet attributed the Boyters predicament to their own character flaws. The retired couple had made no secret that they had hoped to use Redeemed as a platform for missionary work in remote places of the South Pacific.

      In his Loose Cannon interview yesterday, Allen repeatedly suggested the retired fighter pilot and his wife lacked the “kahunas” for a bluewater lifestyle.

      (Cojones, maybe?)

      “Let me tell you my side of it. When I sold the boat to Mark and Sue Boyter, I knew they didn’t have the kahunas to go cruising around the world and save the natives and give bibles to everybody,” Allen said.

      Allen said the water tank and engine problems were a mere pretext after they lost their will or sense of purpose. He said he offered to buy them out when the engine and tank issues first came to his attention. From the transcript:

      When it became obvious that the Boyers did not have the kahunas to do what they wanted, I reached out to them and said, “Look, let me sell the boat for you at a reduced commission and I’ll get you back every bit of your money…Every, every dollar of your money.

      And they refused to even listen to me because (a boatyard) had convinced them that all their problems were the boat, not themselves personally. And that’s exactly what Mark Boyter wanted to hear. Because he’s the type that nothing’s ever his fault, okay? He would never admit that he didn’t have the kahunas to take the boat offshore, out of sight of land.

      During the portion of the interview about the OnDeck lawsuit, Allen seems to have become agitated, then issuing a warning to Loose Cannon. The following exchange refers to the vessel Salamander and her owners, a couple named Atkinson. (Their story is for tomorrow.)

      From the transcript:

      Darrell Allen: I’ll take you on…Okay? If you want to take on Island Packet, we’re ready. We have proof. And we can prove we’ve done everything right. Okay? So I’ll take you on if you want to do that.

      Loose Cannon: What do you mean, take me on?

      Allen: If you publish anything that’s derogatory against us, I’ll take you on, just like I did the Boyters, and I proved the Atkinsons wrong as well. Okay? That’s the people that own Salamander.

      L.C.: Okay, got it. So, you’re threatening me?

      Allen: No, I’m not threatening you at all. I’m just saying we have proof that we’ve done nothing wrong.

      ‘Redeemed’

      Unloved, she lies at Bruswick, Georgia, sporting a new Beta Marine engine and a new water tank. Redeemed has been listed for sale with a broker in Stuart, Florida; she is listed for $988,759.

      Boyter said his wife may never get on any boat ever again.

      Obviously, a story like this is not going to help the Boyters sell their boat. Even so, Mark Boyter said he cooperated because he wants to get the word out:

      My concern is that other Island Packets have water tanks that have yet to delaminate. The unprotected resin in our tank began to break down almost immediately. Depending on how lucky you were with the resin used the day your particular tank was constructed, many other owners and their guest could be exposed at some undetermined point in the future.

      Likewise, the same with other engine installations. The only way an Island Packet 439 owner can be assured that their boat is Darrel Allen-proof is to have the engine and water tanks borescoped and to have oil and water samples taken. Then, if problems are found the only way to guarantee a a reliable main engine is to repower. The only way to ensure safe potable water is to cut out the sole in the saloon and install a food-grade water tank. Both of which we have done.

      The problem is that Island Packet did not inform other 439 owners of these issues. Owners may get sick without warning or even knowing WHY they are sick. Murphy’s Law says that their engines will fail when most needed.

         
      Beneath this saloon sole lies a brand new water tank.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.

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    • East Coast Storm Update. – Fred Pickhardt


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      East Coast Storm Update.

      Widespread coastal flooding

       
       
       
       
       

      READ IN APP

       

      An intense extratropical storm low off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift slowly north at about 5 knots. Winds of 40 to 55 knots are producing significant wave heights of 4-9 meters within about 180 nm west and 240 NM north of the center.

         
        

      This system is expected to become semi-stationary just off the NJ coast then gradually weaken and drift northwest to near NYC by early Monday.

      Large areas of the Mid-Atlantic coast from Cape Hatteras to southern New England are being affected by strong winds and major coastal flooding.

         

      NOAA Ocean Prediction Center

      NOAA High Seas Forecast

      NOAA Offshore Forecasts

      NOAA US Coastal Waters Forecasts

      Ocean Weather Services

      Forensic Marine Weather Expert

       

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    • Why AI Has Trouble Predicting the Fury of Hurricane Intensity – Loose Cannon

      Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with

       

         
       
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      When all else fails, try journalism.


      Why AI Has Trouble Predicting the Fury of Hurricane Intensity

      Tropical Storm Polo Accelerated to Category 5 in 24 Hours

       
       
       
       
       

      READ IN APP

       
         
      Hurricane Irma rapidly intensified before hitting the Caribbean and Florida in 2017, but intensity is still hard to forecast. (NASA photo)

      The author is an associate professor of Atmospheric Science at Indiana University. This story was first published on September 23, 2026 in The Conversation news outlet and is reprinted here with permission.


      By CHANH KIEU

      Artificial intelligence has revolutionized weather forecasting in just a few years, with global AI weather models now able to produce forecasts that rival some of the world’s best physics-based prediction systems.

      This remarkable progress has been driven by three factors: massive amounts of weather data, advances in AI models and unprecedented computational power. While most of the current discussion on improving AI for weather focuses on the models or new hardware, the data is crucial.

      At the global scale, AI has benefited from decades of climate and weather records covering the entire Earth. These datasets contain millions of examples of how atmospheric conditions evolve with time, allowing AI models to learn patterns in a way that would have been impossible a decade ago.

      But when you zoom in from the global scale to the regional scale, forecasts start to be much more challenging for AI.

      That difference matters for forecasting hurricane intensity.

      The world has seen many hurricanes rapidly intensify in recent years, strengthening from relatively weak storms into destructive monsters in a matter of hours. Hurricane Polo did it off Mexico’s Pacific coast as it rapidly strengthened from a tropical storm earlier this week, to a powerful Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours. Polo quickly became one of the strongest Pacific storms in decades, with winds reaching 180 mph.

      When rapid intensification surprises forecasters—as Hurricane Michael did in 2018 when it grew into a destructive Category 5 hurricane right before hitting Tyndall Air Force Base and Mexico Beach, Florida, in 2018—communities can be left with too little time to evacuate and prepare.

      Struggling With Detail

      Unlike global weather forecasts, hurricane intensity forecasts are often considered a regional forecasting problem. Regional forecasts are often concerned with extreme events, such as heavy rainfall, squall lines, severe thunderstorms or hurricanes.

      These extreme events often develop rapidly or move quickly over short periods of time. Capturing such behavior in AI models requires data in much greater detail than current global datasets can typically provide.

      Share

      When scientists train AI models to predict hurricane intensity, they usually rely on two sources of data.

      The first is observations, which include measurements of rainfall, near-surface temperature, wind speed and other weather variables collected from weather stations, radars, buoys and satellites. Such direct observations can be detailed, but they are often limited to near-coastal regions and unevenly distributed, while many of the most important stages of hurricane development occur over the open ocean where direct observations are sparse.

      Modern satellites can help fill some of these gaps in the open ocean, but they can help estimate only part of the rainfall, surface winds or cloud-top temperatures due to limits in satellite coverage. In particular, they cannot simultaneously scan a complete three-dimensional structure of every hurricane around the globe. At present, even the best observational systems provide only a partial view of hurricanes at any point in time.

        A satellite image with a cross section of a hurricane.  
      Scientists used satellite data to map aspects of Hurricane Matthew’s intensity as it gained strength on its way toward the Florida Panhandle in 2016. NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio

      The second source of training data comes from weather model simulations, which combine atmospheric conditions and knowledge of physics to provide the most complete three-dimensional picture of the atmosphere at high resolution.

      However, this simulated data is not perfect either, because all computer models contain approximations and uncertainties arising from incomplete knowledge of the Earth’s atmosphere. As such, there are always fine-scale processes that model simulations cannot capture.

      So, we simply don’t have a good full, three-dimensional dataset to train an AI model for hurricane intensity prediction at present.

      Chaos Challenge

      But data is not the only issue for AI hurricane prediction.

      Suppose in the future scientists could measure the entirety of a storm, measured every second, for thousands of storms around the world. That still might not allow AI to predict hurricane intensity perfectly. The reason: chaos. Tiny differences in the initial state of a hurricane can quickly grow over time.

      My recent research with colleagues suggests that hurricanes may contain some element of chaos that can prevent AI models from accurately predicting hurricane intensity at long forecast times.

      Once embedded in a favorable environment, a tropical storm can intensify toward a maximum possible strength. Scientists call this upper limit the potential intensity. It is determined primarily by the surrounding environment. For example, warm ocean water can fuel a hurricane’s intensity, or wind shear can slow down a hurricane’s development. If the ocean temperature rises, the potential intensity of a hurricane increases, too.

      Any small disturbances will also cause the hurricane intensity to fluctuate. The warmer the ocean surface, the more fluctuations.

       A chart shows the disagreement among models about hurricane intensity 
      Computer simulations show how forecasting a hurricane’s intensity becomes more uncertain the further out the forecast is. Hurricane intensity is measured as the maximum wind at the height of 33 feet (10 meters). The images show how much two hurricanes can differ in their physical appearance, even when they have the same Category 5 intensity. Chanh Kieu

      Recent studies have proposed that these fluctuations are not purely random but occur within what is known as a chaotic attractor—a set of possible storm states within which the hurricane can evolve unpredictably. Although the existence of such a chaotic intensity attractor has not yet been fully established, it presents a fundamental dilemma for training AI models to predict hurricane intensity.

      On one hand, scientists want AI models to make the most accurate predictions possible. Thus, during training the goal is to minimize the difference between the forecast and what actually happens until an AI model achieves the smallest possible error.

      On the other hand, we also want the AI model to capture the hurricane’s intrinsic chaos. But if an AI model can capture this chaos, then its error cannot be reduced indefinitely. So, an AI model trained to minimize forecast error may learn the most likely evolution of a hurricane while smoothing out unpredictable fluctuations. In this regard, these two goals compete with one another.

      With data always containing some uncertainty, the rules an AI model learns are only approximated. The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecast will therefore get worse after just a few days.

      Making Better Forecasts

      The challenge for AI models to predict hurricane intensity is not just about obtaining more data, building better neural networks or deploying faster computers. It is also about understanding hurricane behaviors and how chaos in intensity emerges.

      Both dictate whether AI models can learn what is predictable and what is unpredictable. That distinction not only puts a cap on our current hurricane intensity forecast accuracy but also determines the next generation of weather forecasting and evaluation systems, which should focus on a range of possible hurricane intensities and their probabilities instead of a single intensity number.

      LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.


         
         
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