A look at the Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Hazel and FEMA’s hurricane response

AL94 is zipping its way toward the Virgin Islands at a brisk 20 mph. It’s possible that the system will slowly develop over the next couple of days, but upper-level winds should end any further development of this system late this coming weekend. 

Over in the Western Caribbean, another area of low pressure has been parked off the coast of Belize for the last few days. It’s got just a 20% chance of developing further over the next week, but it is expected to bring heavy rain to Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend as the system moves inland. 

The takeaway from all that is that the Tropics don’t present any clear threat to the Palmetto State for the foreseeable future. After the last month, that is welcome news. As I’ve said many times this season, the forecast could change 10 minutes from now. But it looks good right now. 

I received an email from USC Professor Cary Mock, who pointed out that this week marks the 70th anniversary of Hurricane Hazel. Hazel came ashore near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Oct. 15 as a Category 4 storm. A peak gust of 106 mph was recorded in Myrtle Beach, but North Carolina took the brunt of the hurricane, where 19 people were killed and 15,000 homes were destroyed. The National Weather Service summary of the storm states that Hazel is the only Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina. 

Before I wrap this up, I did want to point out reporting from Matthew Hensley on the controversy spurred by Spartanburg County Sheriff Chuck Wright. Wright made disparaging remarks about the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s response in Western North Carolina. Those comments were followed by reports of armed militiamen who claimed they “were out hunting FEMA.” 

Those reports, fortunately, turned out to be unsubstantiated. Still, relief work in several counties was suspended while they were investigated. 

Earlier this week, Wright followed up his initial comments by making it clear that threats to federal relief workers would not be tolerated by law enforcement. 

That’s it for this week. We will be back next week with all the latest weather updates. Until then, take care. 

What’s brewing

Conditions: 

East of the Leeward Islands – Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized.

Western Caribbean – Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.

Computer models: 

East of the Leeward Islands – Some slow development is possible during the next few days as the disturbance moves quickly westward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development by late in the weekend.

Western Caribbean – Some gradual development is possible over the next couple of days before it moves inland over Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.

Outlook: 

East of the Leeward Islands – There is a 30% chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next week. 

Western Caribbean – There is a 20% chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next week.

What we’re talking about

• The Post and Courier – A week after Spartanburg County Sheriff Chuck Wright blasted the federal response to Helene in North Carolina and said the Biden administration should “let the good men and women around the mountain area and the foothills take care of our own,” he offered a very different message.
• Associated Press – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 60% chance that a weak La Nina event will develop this autumn and could last until March.
• NBC News – As Florida begins the long process of cleaning up and recovering from Hurricane Milton, the tornado outbreak has emerged as a leading cause of death and damage in a state that is accustomed to tropical storms, but less familiar with powerful twisters.

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Hurricanes in history 

Hurricane Hazel. 1954. File

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Hurricane Wire is a collaborative project produced by a team of Post and Courier journalists. Tony Kukulich is its lead writer. Data visualizations are created by Brandon Lockett. “Hurricane in history” photos are curated by Grace Beahm Alford. The newsletter is produced and edited by SaraRose Martin.