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Greetings Fellow Boater!
National Safe Boating Week is May 16–22 and quickly approaching.
Districts, squadrons and members can play a vital role in promoting this event by combining education, outreach, and community engagement. One of the most effective strategies is to host or support local boating safety classes, offering both in-person and virtual options to reach a wider audience.
Members can partner with marinas, yacht clubs, and community centers to distribute safety materials and encourage boaters to complete certified safety courses.
Public visibility is important. Local clubs can set up informational booths at waterfront events, boat launches, and fishing tournaments to help spark conversations and raise awareness about life jacket use, navigation rules, and emergency preparedness. Squadrons should also leverage social media by sharing safety tips, personal experiences, and event updates, using consistent messaging aligned with the national campaign.
Collaborating with local law enforcement and U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary units can strengthen credibility and expand reach. Additionally, vessel safety checks offered during the week provide a hands-on way to engage boaters and reinforce best practices.
By being proactive, approachable, and consistent, we can attract new members, significantly influence safer boating habits, reduce accidents, and make our waterways more enjoyable for everyone. There are many resources available for free to assist with this mission. They can be found at safeboatingcampaign.com.
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.
An Iranian missile boat, one of a few hundred armed small craft deployed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The author is a boatbuilder, a former Navy SEAL and author of dystopian thriller fiction (Scroll to the bottom). This story was first published on May 5, 2026 in Matthew’s Substackand is reprinted here with permission.
After following the latest news from both sides, and listening to this morning’s Pentagon brief, it’s becoming clear to me that the new American “safe passage guidance” plan is to steer shipping through the inshore southern “local traffic” channel near Oman. Jazirat Salamah is the northernmost outcropping of Omani Territory and guards this inshore shipping channel.
The chart below shows the entire Strait of Hormuz. The old official inbound and outbound channels ran through the middle. The current Iranian “toll route” is on the northern side in Iranian waters, and inbound ships must gain approval and then pass between the two Iranian islands shown. Outbound ships must also gain approval, and then pass near to Larak Island. Iran has implied that the center of the Strait of Hormuz has been mined, and the only safe route is the Iranian toll route.
This morning General Caine wasn’t explicit, citing operational security reasons, but it seems clear to me that he is suggesting that shipping will be kept safe if it passes through Oman’s inshore channel. For now it appears we will not be sending our warships through it, but we will put a total safety zone above and around it using our persistent surveillance and air power.
It remains to be seen if any non-U.S. ships will take up the offer to run through the inshore passage, without the physical presence of U.S. warships confidently escorting them, and sharing their danger.
(I’m still unsure if our Burke-class DDGs, the Truxton and the Mason, actually entered the Persian Gulf via this southern route on May 4, or where they were when and if they were engaged by Iranian fire. The two American ships that escaped seem to have used this Omani inshore channel.)
Below is the chart that Pete Hegseth and General Caine put up this morning. Note the crude free-hand green lines that are “Pentagon level and ready for the press.” It really does not give one confidence that this is a well-thought out plan.
The problem is that the most important ships that are blocked inside the Persian Gulf are the giant VLCCs. These are Very Large Crude Carriers, and they can carry about TWO MILLION barrels of oil.
These ships are longer than our nuclear aircraft carriers, and 3 times as heavy. They take miles to plan their turns. With drafts of up to and 80’, they want to stay in very deep water at all times. This is even more true when they are low in the water and fully laden with their cargo of crude oil, which makes them even more difficult to turn, not to even mention to stop.
This is why it’s helpful that the mandated Iranian outbound route passes on the open water side of Larak Island, for easier and safer maneuvering by fully laden tankers.
Next, take a look at the Inshore Traffic Zone on the chart below. Note the location of Jazirat Salamah. (Jazirat is Arabic for Island.) It used to mark the south side of the old official outbound traffic channel. South of Salamah are two other smaller rocky islands, and then Ennerdale Rock, which comes up to within 50 feet of the surface of the water.
As we have just seen above, tankers need much more than that depth. And a hidden rock is even worse than a visible island that shows up on radar. So only local smaller traffic (motorized dhows and so on) are going to pass north of Ennerdale Rock.
From Ennerdale Rock to the next tiny islet to the south is only 7.5 KM or 4 nautical miles. This area is notorious for tricky currents swirling around in eddies due to the underwater topography as the tides pour in and out of of the Persian Gulf. And it can also get windy here. Put a 20-knot wind against or sideways to a 3+ knot current (that shifts direction relative to the ship’s forward movement) and you have a channel that prudent mariners handling large ships will avoid at all costs.
This is why the official traffic channels were right in the deep and wide middle of the Strait of Hormuz, where these tricky currents are not as hard to predict or to understand, and thereby to compensate for. Note that the old inbound channels were each miles wide, with miles between them, and miles of buffer outside of them.
I can only imagine that ship traffic taking the inshore route, under optimal conditions, free from risk of missiles, drones or mines, will move in one direction at a time only, like the Suez Canal. There is no way that a pair of VLCCs will want to pass one another in the four-mile gap between Ennerdale Rock and Jazirat Abu Rashid to the south. Slight miscalculations by one ship, and a misunderstanding by the other, could easily result in a collision or grounding.
Remember, our goal is to save the global economy, or at least lessen the damage, by getting back to the normal 100-plus ships per day passing through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. That will not be easy to accomplish with ships passing both ways through a single four-mile-wide channel, making different radius turns at each end.
For the sake of comparison, about 35 ships over 50,000 tons converge on or depart from the Panama Canal approaches daily. Only three or four ships over 100,000 tons use the Panama Canal per day. I’ve been through it on sailboats three times. On both the Pacific and Atlantic ends, it looks like all the ships in the world are coming together. And this traffic is nothing compared to what should be passing through the Strait of Hormuz every day, in numbers or in the size and tonnage of the ships. Persian Gulf VLCCs make the ship ahead of my boat seem like a toy.
Maybe I’m wrong, and two-way traffic would be possible, if risky. But now add in the risk of Iranian missiles or drones, and ships taking emergency evasive actions. Hint: 300,000 ton VLCCs moving at 12 knots do not turn like Ferraris, and they essentially have no brakes. They basically just plan long in advance how to coast to a stop in safe place, where large tugs will take over. A full emergency crash stop, engine in full reverse, takes two miles!
The Navy’s Case
So far I’ve made the case against the southern Inshore Traffic Route. Next, I’ll make the U.S. Navy’s case for it.
So why would the U.S. Navy even consider offering any form of safe passage through the risky Inshore Route? Well, first of all, it’s as far as a merchant ship, tanker or warship can get from Iran on the way in or out of the Persian Gulf. Greater distance means more warning time for incoming Iranian missiles or drones. Not much, but even an extra minute can matter a lot.
But I think the main reason for considering an “air-safety umbrella” over this southern route lies in the geography and topography of the northern tip of Oman. Including it’s offshore islands, the northernmost being the previously mentioned Jazirat Salamah, not seen on this chart. Sure, Iran rings the Strait of Hormuz around 270 degrees of arc, all of it cliffs and mountains, bristling with hidden anti-ship guided missiles and Shahed drones, but the top of Oman is also pretty damn good fighting terrain, or at least defensive terrain.
Just look at this map of the northern tip of Oman, (and it does not even include the rocky islands that are 4 and 5 miles north of it.) From an old SEAL’s point of view, this is just about heaven in many ways. First, there are dozens of rocky cliff-edged coves to anchor patrol boats in, with beaches for your rigid hull inflatables. You can move and relocate and find all-around cover anytime you want, day or night.
Naval Special Warfare is not just the SEALs, it also includes “the boat guys” in SWCC, and SpecWar’s own dedicated drone and ISR wing and commo elements. (Not to mention possibly also some MarSoc Marines and assorted other knuckle-dragging cutthroats and scallywags.) I have no particular recent knowledge, I’m just guessing, but that Musandam Peninsula is not where I would want to go today unless I wanted to meet some very tough and well armed American frogmen and Marines with no illusions about the battle that might be coming at any hour.
Yes, Shahed drones can turn and maneuver, but they are slow, and I think our ISR guys will be ready for them. And being in a cave on the far side of a rocky cliff-sided mountain is very good protection from straight-line missiles.
Now, I’m just going to pull in some pictures to give you an idea of the terrain around the Musandam Peninsula. Like I said, it’s “frogman heaven,” as long as somebody is bringing the water and ice, decent rations, and some smuggled cases of Beera Heineken would certainly not hurt. Too bad there’s an effin’ war going on. Looks like some nice diving, fishing and boating.
And next, some snaps of the Salamah Islands. Lucky guys that pull that duty: Almost no officers! Sometimes none at all. Or only J.O.s, and you can handle them easy. And if anybody from “higher” is coming to visit, you’ll always know well ahead of time. Set up your hooch in a shady cave with a breeze blowing through, and leave us the hell alone until it’s go-time. We’ll find the fish, crabs, lobsters, octopi, clams etc. by the second day. Just bring your spice pack and hot sauce. Frogman heaven.
Jazirat Tadmur aka Little Quoin Island.
Novels by Matt Bracken
Bracken’s collection is available from Amazon for Kindle and Audible, but it’s better to get the printed books from him. He’ll sign ’em, Jeff Bezos won’t. And Amazon won’t get two-thirds of your moola. Snail mail works fine, but PayPal is quicker.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Every so often he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.
No, that’s not meant to be me. I am kind and gentle (but a little fed up).
Loose Cannon has an uncomfortable relationship with Facebook. On the one hand, it’s an important part of the business model because stories teased on Facebook bring in new readers, many of whom go on to become subscribers and later paying customers.
On the other hand, all the stuff that sucks about Facebook.
Facebook has given America’s stupid people a voice and mean people a sense of superiority. It took me a long time to train myself not to engage every lout that decided to have a go at us or our work.
Because the only person who is really benefitting from any of that keyboard combat is a certified dipshit named Mark Zuckerberg.
As of this month, Loose Cannon is escalating a policy of de-escalation. Before, we would just ignore the turd-chuckers out there in the belief that the good people of the boating community would recognize them for what they are. Then I asked myself, why not just block them?
Not the thoughtful folks, mind you, those who question the evidence or have a different opinion, just the jerks who exhibit hostility to Loose Cannon or other commenters right out of the gate.
If the idea is to recruit subscribers, these hateful people are probably unlikely to sign up anyway, and why would we even want them among us?
We really don’t care if you are a boat-owning Trumper. Fine. Knock yourself out, but if your political belief system forms the basis for an attack on Loose Cannon, we’re going to block you. Find some other family whose Thanksgiving needs ruining.
If you are a grifter, we’re going to block you. Ditto, a liar, an abuser of animals or someone selling passes to enter heaven. If you refer to one of our headlines as “click bait,” you will be blocked. (It’s only click bait if the story does not support the headline.) Same with “rage bait.” Be seeing ya, Bubba. Rage this.
Also, to those of you that have something interesting to contribute or an error to correct, please don’t do so on Facebook. Come right to the comments section beneath every story and do it there. You will be more likely to reach people who have actually read the piece and stand a chance of understanding what you are trying to say.
Which reminds me: If you post an opinion on one of our Facebook links or ask a question that reveals that you could not possibly have read the story, we’re just going to block you too.
Loose Cannon out.
“Send lawyers, guns and money. Dad, get me outta this.”
Elizabeth City sits at the southern terminus of the Dismal Swamp Canal and has the well-earned reputation of being a transient-friendly town with free dockage for 72 hours.
North Carolina Potato Festival
THIS WEEKEND!!
May 15th – 17th
The annual North Carolina Potato Festival is almost here, and downtown Elizabeth City is getting ready for one of the most exciting weekends of the year! From May 15th-17th, visitors and locals alike will gather along the waterfront for three days packed with live entertainment, delicious food, family fun, unique vendors, and community spirit.
Celebrating northeastern North Carolina’s rich agricultural heritage, the festival has become a beloved tradition that brings thousands of people to the Harbor of Hospitality each year. Guests can enjoy everything from rides and artisan booths to live music, classic festival foods, and of course plenty of potatoes along the way. The weekend also features the popular midway, local shopping, waterfront views, and activities for all ages.
Whether you’re planning a weekend getaway or just looking for something fun to do close to home, the NC Potato Festival is the perfect opportunity to experience the energy and charm of Elizabeth City. Be sure to stroll downtown, support local businesses, and soak in the lively atmosphere all weekend long.
We can’t wait to welcome everyone to the waterfront for another unforgettable festival weekend!
Harbor Happenings
Watercolor Wednesday
📅May 13th
📍Poindexter Paint & Pottery
⏱️6:30pm-8:30pm
Live Music
📅May 14th
📍River City Biergarten
⏱️5:30pm-8:30pm
Wine & Paint
📅May 14th
📍2 Souls Wine Bar
⏱️6pm-8pm
Inclusive Nature Walk
📅May 15th
📍COA Wetlands Trail
⏱️10:30am-12:00pm
Hope on Wheels
📅May 16th
📍Kin’Folk Axe Throwing
⏱️11:00am-7:00pm
Town Market
📅May 17th
📍Venue 601
⏱️11:00am-4:00pm
These are just a few of the upcoming events click here to see more! ➡️
Take a walk down the Fenwick-Hollowell Wetlands Trail and experience one of Elizabeth City’s hidden gems! From peaceful boardwalk views to native wildlife and beautiful wetlands scenery, it’s the perfect spot to slow down, explore nature, and enjoy the quiet side of the Albemarle region. Whether you’re looking for a quick stroll or a relaxing outdoor escape, this trail is worth the walk.
Did you know 2 Souls Wine Bar was created by two friends with a shared love for wine, charcuterie, conversation, and community? Located in the heart of downtown Elizabeth City, this cozy local favorite has quickly become a go-to gathering spot for both locals and visitors looking to relax, connect, and “linger a little longer.” Known for their curated charcuterie boards, specialty wines, bourbons, and craft cocktails, 2 Souls offers more than just drinks — they’ve created an experience centered around hospitality and community. They regularly host fun events like live entertainment, themed nights, workshops, and community gatherings that bring people together in a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Fun fact: they’re also dog-friendly, making them a perfect stop during a downtown stroll! Whether you’re planning a date night, girls’ night, celebration, or simply looking for a relaxing evening downtown, 2 Souls Wine & Bourbon Bar continues to add charm, creativity, and connection to Elizabeth City’s growing downtown scene.
South Carolina Gears Up for Heat Safety Week as Temperatures Rise
COLUMBIA, S.C. – Governor Henry McMaster has declared May 18 to May 22, 2026, as South Carolina Heat Safety Week. As temperatures start to rise across the state, officials are urging residents to focus on heat safety before the summer season.
This statewide effort is a collaboration between the S.C. State Climatology Office, the S.C. Department of Natural Resources, the National Weather Service, the South Carolina Emergency Management Division, and the S.C. Department of Public Health.
“Excessive heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States. It doesn’t leave behind the visible destruction of a hurricane or tornado, so its danger is often overlooked,” said John Quagliariello, the Meteorologist-in-Charge of the Columbia National Weather Service Office. “The true tragedy is that, with proper awareness and preparation, the vast majority of these heat-related fatalities are entirely preventable.” Quagliariello noted that there is still a risk of heat-related illness at lower heat thresholds that may not trigger advisories or warnings, especially for heat-sensitive populations.
South Carolina Heat Safety Week coincides with the National Heat Safety Campaign hosted by the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), a collaboration of federal partners, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Each day during the week will feature daily themes to educate the public about the dangers of excessive heat and the steps they can take to stay safe.
May 18: Heat-related illness awareness
May 19: Heat safety tips
May 20: Check on your family, friends, teammates, and neighbors
May 21: Heat safety and outdoor recreation
May 22: Staying safe in the sun (Don’t Fry Day)
Assistant State Climatologist Melissa Griffin noted that last summer, overnight temperatures were up to 10 degrees above normal, heightening heat risks and providing little relief. Dangerously hot and humid conditions at the end of July prompted Extreme Heat Warnings for most of the Coastal Plain, while Heat Advisories were issued for the Midlands and Upstate, with heat indices ranging from 110 to 118 degrees. The National Weather Service station at the Mount Pleasant Airport recorded a heat index of 115 degrees on July 26, and the NWS station at the Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport reported a heat index of 107 degrees on July 27.
The South Carolina Department of Public Health (DPH) places an emphasis on preventing vehicular heat stroke, especially among young children, who are particularly at risk. More than 50% of child heatstroke fatalities are the result of a child being forgotten in a vehicle. Additionally, more than 25% of child heatstroke fatalities happen because a child gains unauthorized access to a parked vehicle and becomes entrapped, like getting locked in the trunk of a car.
“Even on a mild day, the inside of a parked car can heat up to dangerous levels very quickly,” said Kevin Poore, Director of Safe Kids South Carolina and DPH’s Child Passenger Safety Coordinator. “Children and pets are especially vulnerable because their bodies can’t regulate heat as well as adults. To prevent tragedy, it’s essential to make a habit of always locking your doors when a vehicle is not in use and checking the back seat every time you exit your vehicle. A quick glance can save a life. If you ever see a child or pet alone in a car, take action immediately and call 911.”
DPH has developed an interactive Heat Related Illness Dashboard, which includes interactive data pages that allow you to view data for the state and each county. There were 246 hospitalizations and 2,014 emergency department visits for heat-related illness in South Carolina from May to September in 2024, the most recent year for which data is available.
Tips for Staying Safe in the Heat:
Stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water throughout the day.
Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day (typically between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.).
Wear lightweight, light-colored, and loose-fitting clothing.
Take frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned areas.
Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles, even for a few minutes.
Check on neighbors or those without access to air conditioning.
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.
Minus a second person, this is how Shawn Leass’s dinghy would have appared on the FLIR camera each Customs and Border Protection Interceptor Class vessel carries as standard equipment.
His friends say Shawn Leass always ran with a light when piloting his 12-foot dinghy after dark, but when it comes to assigning blame for the crash that killed him, that should hardly matter.
The U.S. Customs & Border Protection vessel that witnesses say ran Leass down comes equipped with the same thermal imaging capabilities that have enabled American soldiers to dominate battlefields after dark. The CBP crew should have seen Leass and his running outboard—glowing white—against the cooler water of Hulover Cut.
Hulover is a body of water at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. That’s where the accident happened about an hour after sunset on Saturday, May 2, between 7:30 and 7:45 p.m. This was during the period known as astronomical twilight, when stars become visible. Most people would consider the sky completely dark.
Defense contractor Teledyne FLIR supplied thermal imaging cameras to each of the 52 Coastal Interceptor Vessels sold to CBP at a cost of about $930,000 each. FLIR cameras are a type of gear perfectly matched to counter-drug patrols, anti-human trafficking interdictions, and search-and-rescue missions—operations that tend to happen at night.
According to witnesses quoted anonymously by local media outlets, the 41-foot government boat itself was going fast without lights when it hit Leass’ dinghy. Several other cruisers familiar with USVI waters have come forward and said it was common for CBP boats to run like that. They have a top speed of 58 knots.
Naturally, given the mission, Coastal Interceptors have a full electronics suite, supplied by Garmin, which includes three multi-function display screens at the helm.
The highly capable Coastal Interceptor Vessel is manufactured by SAFE Boats International of Bremerton, Washington. The hull is aluminum.
We only know that the name of the commander of the CBP vessel is Brandon Martin because the Virgin Island Daily News reported that Martin’s testimony in an unrelated federal case had to be delayed because Martin might have been shaken up by the “tragic accident.”
The FLIR camera, which appears to be mounted just ahead of the boat’s radar, can send a continuous video image of the boat’s surroundings through to a display screen, which is a lot like watching an old-fashioned black and white television.
Running fast at night, a prudent commander would ensure that FLIR thermal imaging occupied one of those three displays, with radar and chartplotter data likely filling the other two. The Interceptors are designed to be operated by a crew of three, so Martin or someone assigned by him should have been monitoring all that real-time navigational data.
One paragraph (in a total of only two) released by CBP about the accident announced that investigations were being conducted CBP’s Office of Professional Responsibility, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the National Transportation Safety Board.
Questions they might ask are: Was the FLIR system operational and turned on? If so, whose job was it keep an eye on the thermal imagery? Why did he (or she) not see Leass and his dinghy ahead of them?
All objects emit energy. Even in pitch black, FLIR cameras will can see the energy given out by the person or object. Because of that, the glow of an all-around white light or the beam of a flashlight would hardly have improved upon the thermal picture.
Clear as day…after dark.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
The W P Franklin Lock is the western most lock on the Okeechobee Waterway. Our thanks to Specialist Jeffrey Prater for this notice. The lock will be closed Wednesday, May 12, 2026 from 8 am to Noon for an Electrical System Upgrade.
EFFECTIVE: 13 May 2026 ATTN: CESAJ-OD-SN PO Box 4970 JACKSONVILLE, FL 32232-0019
POC: Kriss Zeller, Chief of Navigation (772) 380-6928
Attention all concerned boaters! W.P. Franklin Lock will be closed from 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. on May 13, 2026 for electrical system upgrades. Please plan accordingly and thank you for your patience.
For up-to-date Lock information, contact the shift operator 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. at:
St Lucie Lock & Dam 772-287-2665 or 863-662-9148
Port Mayaca Lock & Dam 561-924-2858 or 863-662-9424
Julian Keen, Jr. Lock & Dam 863-946-0414 or 863-662-9533
Ortona Lock & Dam 863-675-0616 or 863- 662-9846
W.P. Franklin Lock & Dam 863-662-9908
Canaveral Lock 321-783-5421 or 863-662-0298 (6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.)
Thank you! Jeff
Jeffrey D Prater Public Affairs Specialist Corporate Communications Office U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District South Florida Office 4400 PGA Blvd. Suite 501 Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410 Cell: 561-801-5734 jeffrey.d.prater@usace.army.mil Twitter @JaxStrong Jacksonville District Facebook:
Cruisers Net publishes Loose Cannon articles with Captain Swanson’s permission in hopes that mariners with saltwater in their veins will subscribe. $7 per month or $56 for the year; you may cancel at any time.
Hanse Explorer is described as a superyacht expedition cruise ship. Marketing materials describe as “one of the toughest, safest, and most comfortable ships of her size for expeditions to remote locations.” She is designed to carry just 12 passengers.
Michael E. West is director of the Alaska Earthquake Center and Alaska state seismologist. Ezgi Karasözen is a research seismologist at the same place, part of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks. This story first appeared in The Conversation on May 6, 2026 and is reprinted here with permission.
By MICHAEL E. WEST & EZGI KARASÖZEN
On the evening of August 9, 2025, passengers on the Hanse Explorer finished taking selfies and videos of the South Sawyer Glacier, and the ship headed back down the fjord. Twelve hours later, a landslide from the adjacent mountain unexpectedly collapsed into the fjord, initiating the second-highest tsunami in recorded history.
We conduct research on earthquakes and tsunamis at the Alaska Earthquake Center, and one of us serves as Alaska state seismologist. In a new study with colleagues, we detail how that landslide sent water and debris 1,580 feet (481 meters) up the other side of the fjord – higher than the top floor of the Taipei 101 skyscraper – and then continued down Tracy Arm. The force of the water stripped the fjord’s walls down to bare rock.
The Tracy Arm landslide generated a tsunami that sent a wave so high up the opposite fjord wall that it would have overtopped some of the world’s tallest buildings. Here’s how it compares to other large tsunamis around the world. Steve Hicks/University College London
It was just after 5 o’clock in the morning on a dreary day, and fortunately, no ships were nearby. In the months after, some cruise lines started avoiding Tracy Arm. However, the conditions that led to this event are not at all unique to this fjord.
Landslides are common in the coastal mountains of Alaska where rapid uplift, caused by tectonic forces and long-term ice loss, converges with the erosive forces of precipitation and moving glaciers. But a curious pattern has emerged in recent years: Multiple major landslides have occurred precisely at the terminus of a retreating glacier.
Though the mechanics are still poorly understood, these mountains appear to become unstable when the ice disappears. When the landslide hits the water, the momentum of millions of tons of rock is transferred into tsunami waves.
Maps show how the glacier has retreated over the years, moving past the section of mountain that collapsed (outlined in white on the right) in the days prior to the slide. The map on the right shows the height the tsunami reached on the fjord walls. Planet Labs
This same phenomenon is playing out from Alaska to Greenland and Norway, sometimes with deadly consequences. Across the Arctic, countries are trying to come to terms with this growing hazard. The options are not attractive: avoid vast swaths of coastline, or live with a poorly understood risk. We believe there is an obvious role for alert systems, but only if scientists have a better understanding of where and when landslides are likely to occur.
Warning Signs
The Tracy Arm landslide is a powerful example.
The landslide occurred in August, when warm ocean waters and heavier precipitation favor both glacier retreat and slope failure. The glacier below the landslide area had experienced rapid calving—large chunks of ice breaking off and falling into the water —and it had retreated more than a third of a mile in the two months prior. Heavy rain had been falling. Rain enters fractures in the mountain and pushes them closer to failure by increasing the water pressure in cracks.
Most provocative are the thousands of small seismic tremors that emanated from the area of the slide in the days prior to the mountainside collapsing.
The view from the deck of the Hanse Explorer on August 9, 2025, shows the mountain where the landslide occurred just 12 hours before it happened. Hanse Explorer
We believe that this combination of signs would have been sufficient to issue progressive alerts to any ships in the vicinity and homes and businesses that could have been harmed by a tsunami at least a day prior to the failure – had a monitoring program existed.
Escalating alerts are used for everything from terrorism and nuclear plant safety to avalanches and volcanic unrest. They don’t remove the risk, but they do make it easier for people to safely coexist with hazards.
For example, though people are still killed in avalanches, alert systems have played an essential role in making winter backcountry travel safer for more people. The collapse at Tracy Arm demonstrates what could be possible for landslides.
Alert System Criteria
We believe that the combination of weather and rapid glacier retreat in early August 2025 was likely sufficient to issue an alert notifying people that the hazard may be temporarily elevated in a general area. On a yellow-orange-red scale, this would be a yellow alert.
In the hours prior to the landslide, the exponential increase in seismic events and telltale transition to what is known as seismic tremor—a continuous “hum” of seismic energy—were sufficient to communicate a time-sensitive warning for a specific region.
These observations, recorded as a byproduct of regional earthquake monitoring, warranted an “orange” alert noting immediate concern. The signs were arguably sufficient to recommend keeping boats and ships out of the fjord.
Our research over the past few years has demonstrated that once a large landslide has started, it is possible to detect and measure the event within a couple of minutes. In this amount of time, seismic waves in the surrounding area can indicate the rough size of the landslide and whether it occurred near open water.
A monitoring program that could quickly communicate this would be able to issue a red alert, signaling an event in progress.
The Coast Guard took this picture of the landslide area a few days after it caused the tsunami.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s tsunami warning program has spent decades fine-tuning rapid message dissemination. A warning system would have offered little help for ships in the immediate vicinity, but it could have provided perhaps 10 minutes of warning for those who rode out the harrowing tsunami farther away.
There is no landslide monitoring system operating yet at this scale in the U.S. Building one will require cooperation across state and federal agencies, and strengthened monitoring and communication networks. Even then, it will not be fail-proof.
Understanding Risk
Alert systems do not remove the risk entirely, but they are a better option than no warning at all. Over time, they also build awareness as communities and visitors get used to thinking about these hazards.
Many of the most alluring places on Earth come with significant hazards. Arctic fjords are among them. The same processes that create this hazard—glacier retreat, steep terrain, dynamic geology—are also what make these landscapes so compelling. The mix of glaciers, ice-choked waters and steep mountains is exactly what draws people to these places. People will continue to visit and experience them.
The question is not whether these places should be avoided altogether, but how to help people make more informed decisions. We believe that stronger geophysical and meteorological monitoring, coupled with new research and communication channels, is the first step.
On August 9, visitors unknowingly passed through a landscape on the cusp of failure. An alert system might have given tour companies and people in the area the information they needed to make more informed choices and avoid being caught by surprise.
LOOSE CANNON covers hard news, technical issues and nautical history. Sometimes he tries to be funny. Subscribe for free to support the work. If you’ve been reading for a while—and you like it—consider upgrading to paid.
The lock will be closed Wednesday, May 12, 2026 from 8 am to Noon for an Electrical System Upgrade. 
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